|Dew Point:||59.4°F (15.2°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.72" (1006.3 mb)|
Hi 63 °F
Hi 64 °F
Hi 76 °F
Hi 81 °F
Hi 75 °F
Showers. High near 63. Southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers, mainly before 1am, then patchy drizzle with a chance of showers after 1am. Patchy fog after 4am. Low around 51. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A 20 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
ern portions of the CWFA. Think only isolated thunder is possible for the next few hours. For the afternoon, do think the best chances for thunderstorms will be in the areas that have remained free of thick cloud cover this morning (especially along and east of Interstate 85). Scattered strong storms will be possible, with potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm. The primary modes of severe weather would be wind gusts up to 60mph and hail up to an inch. Thunderstorms would also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 731 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Latest surface analysis across the area shows low pressure over North Alabama and North GA at this hour. Frontal boundary extends from this feature through Southern Alabama and Mississippi and into the Gulf of Mexico although the most significant of the drier and cooler air resides further upstream over the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys. At the upper levels...closed upper low just now entering the Tennessee Valley and continuing to strengthen as it drops SE. Continue to see showers and isolated thunderstorms stream across the area from time to time with most of the TSRA of the elevated variety given surface CAPE values near zero.
Through the remainder of the morning hours...strengthening approaching upper low will allow for a stronger diffluent pattern o develop maximizing lift by 15Z. If we were a bit more unstable...then concern would be higher across the North given shear values but an abundant of low clouds should keep activity benign there. Could get more interesting to the south where CAPE values will increase to 1000 to 1500 J/KG by the afternoon hours. Although shear not quite as high...could still see some isolated strong to severe storms with strong gusty winds and modest hail potential given continued cold temps aloft.
Low moves east of the area through tonight but even into Monday...models continue to show some weak instability in the wrap around environment. Would not be surprised to see some additional small hail reports Monday afternoon given 500mb temps approaching -18C.
As far as rainfall is concerned...already seen an inch to close to an inch and a half from Rome to Cleveland and points northward. Anticipate another inch and a half to almost 2 over the same areas but with enough time displacement to preclude any significant flood potential. Only isolated flood issues anticipated and will forego any flood watches for now.
LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... All of the activity during the short term period will be pushing east out of the CWA by the beginning of the long term forecast period on Monday night. The slow moving closed H5 low will be centered in the vicinity of Georgia and SC coastline...with associated sfc low centered just downstream off the NC/SC coastline. Wrap-around shower activity associated with this system will be mainly confined to eastern counties and should gradually push east through the overnight hours...leaving the CWA dry with mid level heights beginning to rise.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very dry and pleasant as a weak mid level shortwave ridge builds in and weak high pressure takes over at the surface. Could see some lingering lower level cloud cover Tuesday...but temps should begin to rebound with highs upper 70s to low 80s Tues and mid-upper 80s Wednesday.
The weak shortwave ridge will begin to shift to the east of the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Upstream pattern shows an elongated trough building into the Western and Central US...with several notable embedded shortwave troughs responsible for the development of numerous sfc waves along a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will push toward the CWA early Thursday. Deterministic models begin to diverge somewhat around this time...but both agree the front will stall across the state by Thursday night...which makes sense given large displacement from parent system. Plenty of instability should allow for thunderstorm development in the vicinity of this boundary...but weak shear argues against robust organization at this time.
00z EC came more in line with 00z GFS tonight with a broad mid level closed low developing within the broad cyclonic flow across the Western/Central US...which is also now being reflected in the ensemble data. Given this solution...strong cyclogenesis should take place in the lee of the Rockies next weekend. This should kick the stalled boundary across our area north as a warm front as it moves east into the Midwest/Great Lakes... with the associated cold front expected to approach the area at the end of the long term.