|Dew Point:||60.3°F (15.7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.62" (1002.9 mb)|
Lo 59 °F
Lo 51 °F
Lo 51 °F
Lo 60 °F
Lo 64 °F
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind around 5 mph.
Showers and thunderstorms before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. High near 70. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
wave of showers/tstorms slowly exiting the CWA and by this evening this area of showers/tstorms will have pushed east out of the region. With instability remaining over the CWA tonight will need to keep low end chance pops for showers/tstorms all areas. The next wave of precip will be along and ahead of the cold front late tonight and Wednesday. Models have waffled a bit on timing of this front and precip but general consensus is that a line of showers/tstorms will develop along and head of the front, moving into northwest by between 10 and 12z, moving rapidly across the CWA and by mid afternoon Wednesday this round of showers/tstorms will be east of the region. CAPES will be 1000+ at 12Z ahead of the cold front along with 60kts bulk shear. With the forced lifting of the front, this should be enough for a few storms to become severe with gusty winds and possibly a QLCS tornado as the line moves across the CWA.
The H5 low will be dropping into the Tennessee Valley Thursday evening with very cold air aloft (-20 to -22C at H5 which is quite cold for this time of year). This will continue to keep the atmosphere destabilized as evident by the +100 CAPES on all models Wednesday night. Will need to increase pops across north GA Wednesday night and with the very cold temps aloft, there is the risk of small hail with any thunderstorm.
Forecast QPF through 00Z Thursday should remain less than an inch, however can`t rule out an isolated 1 to 2 inch amount in some of the heavier thunderstorms. With the previous 2 days of rainfall, flash flooding remains a possibility with the next wave of precipitation late tonight and Wednesday. Will therefore continue the Flash Flood Watch through 18Z Wednesday.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Made minor cosmetic changes to fcst mainly to limit some precip chances in the north for a quicker departure of the upper low/moisture by Thursday evening. Also expanded Saturday slight chance pops for north GA given the zonal flow/disturbance influence. Otherwise rest looks on track with neighboring offices and previous discussion follows...
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017/
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Much of the area will be on the backside of deep moisture plume and associated cold front by Wednesday night with anomalously cold upper level low approaching from the northwest. Breezy and much cooler conditions will prevail into Thursday with clouds and scattered showers across north Georgia. Lapse rates appear steep enough to support a few embedded thunderstorms, again mainly north of I-20. Small hail will be possible with any storms. By late Thursday into Thursday night, drier air will work across the area and any showers/storms will diminish.
Temperatures will gradually moderate closer to normal Friday into the weekend as an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico builds slowly north. Battle between the GOM ridge and a strong upper trough digging across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest occurs over the weekend creating an increasingly zonal flow across the area, especially north GA. Moisture will begin to increase as this occurs with chances for rain picking up late Saturday into Sunday. Medium range models appear to deepen longwave trough across the eastern CONUS thus resulting in an extended period of rain setting up once again - Sunday into Monday - across the Southeast region. However, this is 5 to 6 days out and things will likely change.