|Dew Point:||14.4°F (-9.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.59" (1035.8 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 29
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 48 Low: 35
Chance Rain And Snow then Partly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 25
Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 16
Clear, with a low around 15. South southeast wind around 3 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 42. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
A slight chance of freezing rain between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of freezing rain and a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Rain likely before 5pm, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. South southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Rain showers before 1am, then rain between 1am and 4am, then rain showers likely between 4am and 5am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Rain likely before 8am, then a chance of rain and snow between 8am and noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.
... Cold high pressure will keep temperatures well below average before milder conditions materialize by mid week in advance of the next precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday. Expect very chilly weather next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Evening Update...Made some minor tweaks to temps running a little warmer than the fcst curve across the Upstate and into the NC foothills. A very good rad cooling night in store with broad sfc high building in from the north. Mins will drop to arnd 10 degrees F below normal.
As of 630 PM: The fcst is in good shape. Arctic hipres remains the dominant feature tonight and no issues with winds or wind chills. However...actual temps will remain abt 10-15 degrees F below normal within a very dry airmass.
As of 230 PM: A progressive flow pattern will continue thru the near term, as the center of arctic high pressure slowly drifts east across the Central Appalachians to central VA by daybreak Tuesday. An 850 mb ridge axis will cross the FA this evening, and bring flow around out of the SW overnight. Overall, clear skies and light winds will result in good radiational cooling conditions tonight. So many areas across the Piedmont may end up a deg or two colder than this morning by sunrise Tuesday. The 850 mb WAA will result in overnight lows being not as cold in the mountains, however. All of that being said, min temps will be 10 degrees below normal across the FA.
Tuesday, SWLY low-level flow will gradually advect some RH back into the area late in the day, which could produce some stratocu before sunset, especially in the southwestern half of the FA. But skies should start out sunny and temps will rebound a couple of categories across the PIedmont and up to 10 deg warmer in the mountains. Still, max temps will be about 7-10 deg below normal.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 252 PM EST Monday: Lets cut right to the chase. The fcst is aided greatly by good agreement and continuity in the model guidance, leading to increasing confidence that we are looking at an Advisory-level ice event across the region from the Blue Ridge Escarpment to I-85 because of the time of day...morning rush hour on Wednesday...and not so much because of the amount of ice... probably no more than a tenth of an inch at worst. That being said, we are loathe to issue a third period advisory and will take advantage of one more model cycle before we seriously consider the location and timing. Now for the particulars... The models agree that moist isentropic upglide and increasing southerly upslope flow will increase and become productive right after sunset on Tuesday with precip breaking out in the upslope areas of the upper French Broad Valley first and then fanning out from there as the upglide spreads over the entire area. What is interesting is that the moisture remains shallow... never getting above about 8k feet...so it is highly unlikely that ice nuclei will get involved...meaning that what is in the clouds will be all liquid. Problem is...temps never get all that warm to begin with Tuesday afternoon and the air mass will be dry enough that light precip will quickly bring temps down at or below freezing through the miracle of evaporative cooling. Which means that any light precip that falls Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be some combination of light rain and/or light freezing rain depending on the sfc temperature. We are confident that liquid precip amts will be only on the order of a tenth of an inch across the fcst area through midday wednesday, so it is very very unlikely this will accrue enough to where it would be a problem with trees and power lines. It could affect some road surfaces at rush hour across parts of the area early on Wednesday morning, so it warrants keeping an eye on. Temps warm steadily after sunrise, so the threat should end quickly. The rest of Wednesday will be spent watching the next system approach from the west. Not a whole lot of change in the way guidance is handling that one, either. The upper trof approaching from the west should be able to pick up Gulf moisture and draw it up across the western Carolinas starting Wednesday afternoon. Warm advection is so strong that temps warm well above freezing everywhere so we are still looking primarily at an all rain event. Precip prob will be categorical. Its another fairly quick shot with some potential for heavy rain in the southerly upslope areas. Once again we will have to keep an eye on this one, too, but nothing that immediately suggests an impending threat. The sfc wave passes east of the fcst area early Thursday which should also greatly limit our access to instability and thus our chances for severe storms. Precip chances will diminish quickly on Thursday morning after the wave passes through. The cold air will funnel into the wrn mountains quickly in the morning while some deeper moisture remains, so there is some potential for a quick few inches at the highest elevations of the Smokies. Otherwise, a brief shot of wnw flow snow showers near the TN border that end in the afternoon. Temps will also start cooling off again east of the mtns in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Monday: The medium range begins Thursday night in the wake of the latest low pressure system in the southern stream, with a cold and dry arctic airmass quickly filtering into the southeastern CONUS. Friday and Saturday will be dry (albeit very chilly) across the area as surface high pressure moves in.
Confidence remains low in the second half of the medium range forecast due to poor model-to-model and run-to-run consistency. While guidance was featuring a deep H5 trough and shortwave triggering cyclogenesis on the northern Gulf coast for the past few days, most major models have now deepened the initial trough, driving the track of the low pressure system much farther to the south than previously advertised. While the previously-featured more northerly track would have the potential to bring quite a bit of snow to much of the forecast area, the southerly track currently advertised in most of the global models would leave the forecast area virtually dry. Have therefore backed off pops considerably Sunday and Monday to reflect the much drier trend. Consistency in model low tracks has been virtually nonexistent over the past few days, however, so keeping an eye on the forecast for this weekend would be prudent. The next substantial chance at any precip would exist on the current day 8, just outside the medium range forecast. With all the uncertainty in earlier parts of the forecast, rest assured this will probably change too.
Persistent longwave troughing will keep the eastern CONUS cooler than average, with local temperatures running 5-10 degrees below normal through early next week.