|Dew Point:||66.7°F (19.3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.14" (1020.5 mb)|
Patchy FogLow: 63
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 83 Low: 64
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 75 Low: 62
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 72 Low: 62
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 76 Low: 63
Patchy fog after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. East southeast wind around 3 mph.
Patchy fog before 9am, then a chance of rain showers between 11am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. West northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. South southeast wind 1 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. East wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... High pressure will weaken and move east of the area through Saturday. A weak, yet moist, cold front will then advance from the north Sunday before moving back north on Tuesday. A stronger cold front is forecast to push into the forecast area on Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1000 PM...The forecast continues to be on track. Tweaked sky cover to line up with obs and RGB product. Temps are now falling a little faster than earlier, so adjusted hourly temp trends back down. Still think the min temp looks good.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated overnight, except for the mountains where clouds will be on the increase late ahead of a weakening cold front. This will generally allow for efficient radiational cooling. However, the high dewpoints well into the 60s will maintain lows only into the 60s. The mostly clear skies will also likely support the development of patchy fog late tonight. Isolated areas of dense fog are possible across prone mountain valleys, especially south of I-40.
The aforementioned cold front is expected to drift into the northern portions of the forecast area late in the day Saturday. This will support continued increase in cloud cover through the day. Additional lift and increasing instability associated with the frontal system will also support increasing shower and thunderstorm activity from north to south focused from late morning through the afternoon. Most of the activity is currently expected across NC, especially NW and N areas. Increasing cloud cover and rainfall will lead to cooling temperatures north with little change in highs to the south.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday: Saturday looks like the hottest day of perhaps the rest of the year. isold/sct storms are again possible over the mountains in the aftn/eve. A cold front dropping down from the north/northwest and gets hung up overhead or very close to the area later in the weekend. Sct showers and isold thunderstorms are expected over western NC for Sat night into Sun night, with the lowest stability on the mountains. The line between likely/high chance PoPs and almost nil PoPs will be right along the NC/SC border. Low level stable/cool wedge oozes in from the northeast on Sun night. Temps should be normal or just a tiny bit above Sun aftn, then the cool air slides across most of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Strong NE/ageostrophic flow will be in place for most of the area Mon and Tues. Operational models are still in agreement with this moist/cool wedge. Flow does become southwesterly on Wed before a cold front pushes in later Wed and becomes stationary just to our south as it encounters strong Atl ridging. We never lose the 30 PoPs, but Mon and Tues look fairly dry and stability should limit the chc of thunder even if we get a shower to bubble up. PoPs go up on Wed morning. Conditional moderate instability will likely be realized Wed with the llvl convg zone pushing in. So...some stronger and deeper convec cells are possible into Thu (mainly after Noon Thu). Max temps will begin the period below normal in the moist llvl wedge and rise back above normal on Wed just before the front. They don't fall too much after the cold front passes, either.