|Dew Point:||37.0°F (2.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the ENE at 4.0 MPH Gusting to 5.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||44°F (6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Chance Rain ShowersLow: 38
Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 55 Low: 50
Slight Chance Light Rain then Partly SunnyHigh: 60 Low: 52
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 61 Low: 53
Light Rain Likely then Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 62 Low: 48
A chance of rain showers before 2am, then a chance of rain showers and patchy fog. Mostly cloudy. Low around 38, with temperatures rising to around 44 overnight. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers and patchy fog before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain before 7pm, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain between 8pm and 4am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of rain showers before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 8pm, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain showers likely before 7am, then rain likely between 7am and 9am, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... Rain chances will increase to start the work week as moisture overspreads a wedge of high pressure. Temperatures will climb through the middle of the week as another cold front arrives from Tennessee by Thursday. This front will stall out and linger just north of our area next weekend. Chances for rain remain in the forecast each day.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 930 PM Update...With llvl stcu building in quickly this evening...hr/ly temps have been held abv the fcst curve in many locales. Thus...have adj the T/Td grids. PoP grids are in good shape with light precip moving over the SW zones. This area of rain will continue and spread further across the wrn half of the FA during the next few hrs.
600 PM Update...Moisture from a srn frontal zone continues to slowly advance northward as sfc ridging builds in from the northeast. Expect the development and an increase of low cloud coverage thru the next update.
The flow across the Conus will amplify considerably during the near term, as a series of short waves carve out a deep trough across the West, forcing a building ridge along the East Coast, while tightening gradient between these two features will result in a strengthening upper jet across the Midwest. Developing Great Plains cyclone responding to large scale height falls will result in strengthening S->SW flow across the Southeast, with moisture return/ warm frontal activation already underway from the SC Coastal Plain through ctrl GA/AL. Moisture will begin overspreading our forecast area from the SW by early evening, with increasing/thickening clouds giving way to increasing chances for mainly -RA by late evening. Pops increase to likely in most locations at some point between 06 and 12Z. Precip amounts will be light, only around a tenth of an inch or less in most locations, with perhaps some locally higher amounts with any terrain enhancement. Cloud cover will limit cooling such that min temps will be 10-15 degrees above climo.
Precip chances will begin tapering off around sunrise Monday, as deeper isentropic lift shifts into the Mid-Atlantic and central/ eastern NC. However, early morning precip falling into initially relatively dry air mass should leave behind in-situ cold air damming, and shallow upglide will allow for abundant low clouds and at least patchy drizzle to linger through the morning, if not the entire day. That being the case, Monday's max temps will be cooler than today's (or very close to climo), especially along and north of I-85, as the CAD may begin to erode by afternoon across southern Piedmont areas, if it develops in those areas at all.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday: A deep upper ridge, characterized by 500mb heights near 595 dam, will remain situated off the Southeast coast through the short term. We will remain in the warm sector of a frontal system centered over the Midwest, with the ridge hindering the eastward progression of that system. Warm and humid conditions thus are in order for our CWFA. In terms of forcing, the pattern is not very exciting; WAA is relatively weak through Tuesday. Models generate occasional QPF in the southerly upslope areas near the Blue Ridge through that time, so our PoP trends will reflect that. Tuesday night, a weak warm front moves into the area, further increasing moisture and PoPs, which expand into the Piedmont. These elevated chances persist through Wednesday. The GFS brings a few hundred joules of SBCAPE into the lower Piedmont Wednesday afternoon, with the NAM depicting lower values; a midlevel subsidence inversion looks likely to stifle most deep convection. The chance of thunder looks too small to mention in most areas despite what the GFS shows.
In the warm pattern of late, a bias-corrected blend of raw model values has verified well for max temps, generally being at the warm end of the envelope. The Piedmont should easily reach the mid 70s both days, trending upward for Wednesday when the climatologically warmest spots may flirt with 80. Min temps will be within a couple degrees of normal max temps on Tuesday morning, and will be several degrees warmer Wednesday morning under the influence of that warm front. Both max temp and high-min records are in jeopardy for our climate sites. Please see the Climate section below for full details.
As previous shift noted, with a saturated low-level inversion and support from MOS guidance, areas of fog are a reasonably good bet early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Sunday: The medium range fcst period tips off on Wednesday evening amidst strong subtropical H5 ridging over the western Atlantic, while an upper troffing prevails over the west. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the pattern over the southeast states, reinforced by the aforementioned Atl upper anticyclone. Further west a cold front will be moving into the MS river valley, eventually sliding east into the TN valley.
At fcst initialization the prevailing sly flow regime will lead to a moist and unsettled airmass across the southeast favoring elevated pops. Therefore pops will be featured in the likely range across the high terrain, with chance levels highlighted elsewhere. At that point guidance tends to diverge with regard to the frontal intrusion leading to high uncertainty. Specifically, the ECMWF/CMC are much less aggressive than the GFS which pushes the front through half the fcst area on Friday, stalling it out near/along I85 leading to enhanced focusing for convection. Not to mention the possibility of partial wedging given the northeastward movement of the new reinforcing parent high. The former solutions really never favor frontal intrusion at all, keeping it westward across the TN valley and thereby holding northeast GA and the western Carolinas in the warm sector. This later solution would favor lower pops, and looks plausible given the strength of the Atl ridge to the east. Therefore the fcst will favor such trends with pops lowering through Friday to slight/chance levels. Continuing with the ECMWF, the upper ridge looks to flatten a bit and shift westward on Saturday allowing for lower heights across the entire fcst area. This pattern looks to hold through the remainder of the period with no major synoptic features expected to move into the region. Therefore pops will remain rather stagnant amidst this warm/moist pattern with chances generally atop the high terrain, and slight chances elsewhere, with occasional thunder possible each afternoon through Sunday. Temperature through the period will remain well above normal levels.