|Dew Point:||37.6°F (3.1°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.07" (1018.2 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 53
Patchy Fog then Mostly SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 55
Mostly SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 57
SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 58
Mostly SunnyHigh: 68 Low: 52
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Patchy fog between 7am and 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. East wind 1 to 6 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. East southeast wind around 3 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind 1 to 8 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 1 to 6 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
... Dry and warm high pressure will remain across the region through the middle of week...while Hurricane Maria is forecast to remain off the East Coast. A weak cold front will sweep across the area beginning late Thursday through early Saturday, bringing drier and much cooler air to the area over the upcoming weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mean upper ridging will persist along the East Coast through the period, with only the slow northward movement of Tropical Cyclone Maria, currently located ~500 mi east of Savannah, to disrupt the larger scale pattern. Streamline trajectories originating from Maria will continue to support SCT/BKN, mainly thin cirrus across our area through part of today, but this should have minimal impact upon temperatures. Speaking of which...based upon progged thickness values, today's max temps should be very similar to Sunday, or roughly 5 degrees above climo in most locations. Persistent NE low level flow will continue to promote a rather dry boundary layer, while large scale subsidence will yield poor mid-level lapse rates. Thus, chances for deep convection later today are virtually nil. Min temps tonight should once again be roughly 5 degrees above normal.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Monday: Unseasonably warm and dry conds continue thru the short range period. Strong h5 ridging to the north will interact with the subs region of TC Maria and create stg downward supressive motion across the FA. Low level moisture will be hard to come by as llvl winds remain n/ly to ne/ly. Layers of Ci will round Maria and cross overhead thru the period esp across the ern zones...but these clouds will be too shallow to prevent max temps from reaching arnd 10 degrees abv normal each day. No good chance for convec during the timeframe with fair-wx Cu the likely cloud type while the subs inversion persists arnd h8. Thus...no precip is fcst and little in the way of morning fg/br can be expected even across the mtn valleys. There is a chance of afternoon low- end gusts with modest momentum transfers east nearer Maria both Tue and Wed.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Monday: Another well above normal temperature day is in store Thu as an h5 ridge redevelops to the SW in the wake of TC Maria, which will be heading away from the NC shore. This ridge will be short lived however as h5 heights begin to fall late in day in response to strong energy traversing the mean flow across the nrn CONUS.
A moisture deficient cold front will advance toward the NC mtns late Thu and with some measure of sw/ly mech lift a few -shra may develop across the cent/srn NC mtns. Pops are held at slight during this time as it will be hard to get good coverage of deep clouds given the limited amount of moisture. The front crosses into the mtns Thu night and early Fri with little fanfare. By the afternoon...lift ahead of the front and a little better moisture pooling will allow for iaol -shra across the NC mtns...Upstate and NE GA...with little potential for the NC fthills and piedmont regions. The airmass ahead of the front will be non-conducive for deep convec however as warm dry air remains abv h7 and cloud cover increases limiting max temps to seasonal levels. So...will not expect thunder Fri thru FROPA early Sat.
A definitive fall-like cP airmass will move in behind the front Sat and persist into early next week. Very dry air indicated by PWATS arnd 0.5 inches and max temps held 5-8 degrees below normal will make for very pleasant conds as we move into Oct.