|Dew Point:||41.8°F (5.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the NNE at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 4.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.30" (1025.8 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 35
SunnyHigh: 54 Low: 34
Areas Of Frost then Mostly SunnyHigh: 55 Low: 46
Light Rain Likely then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 52 Low: 32
Mostly SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 30
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Northwest wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 54. North northwest wind 5 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Areas of frost after 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Southeast wind 1 to 5 mph.
Areas of frost before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. West southwest wind 5 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain likely before noon, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.
Areas of frost after midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
... Dry high pressure will build over the area Thursday through Friday. A stronger cold front will bring more abundant moisture back to the region Friday night into Saturday before much cooler and drier air arrives behind the front Saturday night through Sunday. The dry and cool air will linger into the early part of next week then a dry cold front arrives in mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM...An upper trough axis will swing thru the East Coast tonight, followed by an upper ridge building over the Midwest. Meanwhile, the center of a sprawling sfc high moves into the Mid-MS Valley, with the eastern extent spilling east of the Appalachians. This dry air will help clear out skies and bring the coldest temps of the fall season for much of the area (about 5-10 deg below normal). Lows will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s in the mountains, with patchy frost possible in the sheltered valleys, especially in the Northern NC Mountains. Winds look too high for more widespread frost and the need for a Frost Advisory. The Piedmont will see mainly mid 40s to lower 50s under mostly clear skies.
On Thursday...dry high pressure continues to build into the region and will bring low-level thicknesses down. Despite sunny skies, temps will top out below normal. Highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s in the mountains and mid to upper 60s Piedmont.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday: A fairly progressive pattern will be in place to start the short term, with an exiting trough off the East Coast, cold surface high in place over our area, an upper high over the Bahamas/FL ridging up the MS Valley, and a deep sharp trough over the Rockies. As we push forward in time, moisture continuing to stream into the Southern Plains around the western edge of the upper high will be pulled farther north ahead of the shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies, which will drag a front toward the Appalachians late Friday. At the end of the period, a more potent little shortwave will be diving around the upper trough over the Hudson Bay, to bring some chilly conditions behind the front.
But first, we have to get through some pretty chilly temperatures Friday morning (well, not super cold, but compared to what we've been seeing lately it might certainly feel that way!), with lows solidly in the 40s across the Piedmont, flirting with upper 30s in the NW NC Piedmont, and 30s across the mountains (3-8 degrees below normal). Another round of patchy frost possible especially across the northern mountains, but still doesn't look widespread enough for major concerns. As the surface high moves offshore, surface flow will shift around to the SE during the day on Friday bringing a smidge of WAA to the area, but really not a whole lot warmer on Friday than what we'll see tomorrow, and still 5-8 degrees below normal.
As the front approaches Friday night, clouds will increase and the mountains should start seeing some precip during the late evening hours, which will spread east early Saturday morning, and will move out fairly quickly by the end of the period (with just some lingering NW flow showers in the mountains to start the extended). No instability to work with but with the weak WAA should see some additional recovery to high temps on Saturday, just a little below seasonal normals (so a really nice fall day, except for the rain of course). At the very end of the period, a 1032 Canadian high will be centered over the northern Plains, working its way down the strong NW flow behind the deep trough to impact us in the extended.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday: Starting Saturday evening with a deep 500mb trough over the East and a high amplitude ridge over the West. Trough axis approaching the Appalachians at 00Z Sunday. Strong northwest low level flow against the NC and TN border ridge area with some upslope showers developing into Saturday night. As temperatures drop, there may be isolated high elevation snow before the air sufficiently dries out in the predawn hours on Sunday. Canadian high pressure will be centered over Missouri at sunrise on Sunday and pushes drier air into our region into Monday.
The trough moves off the East Coast by Sunday night with height rises over our region with a shallow ridge building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be centered over NC at sunrise Monday. With near calm wind and a clear sky, expect the coldest night so far of the season Sunday night. Frost and freeze expected for the NC mountains with frost also for the NC foothills.
The West Coast ridge also moves east with quite a spread in the models as to how far east this ridge goes and with what features and amplitude. Slow warming into mid week and latest GFS has a shortwave crossing Texas on Wednesday with Gulf moisture spreading into our area Wednesday night. The ECMWF still dry through the end of the forecast.