|Dew Point:||46.0°F (7.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the NW at 2.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.09" (1019.0 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 59 Low: 36
SunnyHigh: 55 Low: 33
Patchy Frost then Mostly SunnyHigh: 58 Low: 48
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 57 Low: 35
SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 32
Sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 1 to 5 mph.
Patchy frost between 7am and 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Southwest wind 1 to 7 mph.
Rain showers likely after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunny, with a high near 48.
... A weak cold front will drift south of the area this morning bringing an initial surge of drier air through midday. A secondary dry cold front arrives this afternoon resulting in another round of cooler and drier air in advance of high pressure that should build east into the region later today through Friday. Another cold front brings a return of wet weather Friday night into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...
Cold front and its associated surface wave across the Carolinas will continue to sink to the southeast this morning in advance of a dry secondary boundary that will slide through the region this afternoon. This should allow any ongoing light rain to exit before daybreak with much drier air aloft working in this morning, and to the surface as mixing with the 850 mb boundary increases by afternoon. Latest guidance showing the jet aloft also ramping up to 35-40 kts by midday but a bit our of sync with the best cool advection and subsequent pressure rises that wont arrive until this evening. Although will be close to advisory winds around Roanoke given channeling across the Blue Ridge per westerly flow, wont hoist a headline at this point given a rather high inversion level and overall marginal nature at this point despite leaves on the trees. Thus bumping up speeds given forecast deep mixing with quite a breezy afternoon in store espcly along the ridges. Otherwise with best cooling aloft lagging a bit, bumped up highs given heating of drier air and downslope warming out east where some 70s possible.
Upper trough passes to the north overnight with deeper cold advection continuing to work in ahead of high pressure building in from the west. However the surface high will remain far enough to the west to prevent the gradient from relaxing until perhaps deeper western valleys just before daybreak, and out east where mixing will be weaker. This would suggest less threat for frost outside of the deepest valleys, but possibly more of an advection type freeze across the higher northwest ridges where 850 mb temps are progged to drop to around -3 deg/C around dawn. Otherwise should be mainly clear outside of some high clouds but remain blustery during the evening before speeds slowly edge down after midnight. Lows mostly 30s west to around 40 east pending degree of decoupling with some 20s higher elevation across the northwest. This supports including a freeze warning for Western Greenbrier/Bath tonight and a bordering frost advisory for the valleys late.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Thursday morning will build east Thursday afternoon and reach Virginia Thursday night into Friday. The high center will slide east into the Atlantic ocean Friday into Friday night.
High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to around 60 degrees in the piedmont. It is going to be cold Thursday night with low temperatures from the upper 20s in the mountains to near 40 degrees along the southern Blue Ridge mountains. If the winds die off expect pockets of frost to develop in the mountains depending on high clouds. Will keep mention of frost in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for the sheltered valleys west of the Blue Ridge.
A cold front will approach us from the west Friday and travel across region Friday night into Saturday. Moisture from the Gulf will get entrained into the frontal zone accompanying the deepening northern tier trough. Utilized the superblend for pops on Friday with generally increasing as the day progresses. High temperatures Friday will vary from the lower 50s in the west to the lower 60s in the east. With clouds and scattered showers, Temperatures Friday night will moderate into the lower 40s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont.
Confidence is average for all elements.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...
500 MB trough will deepen over the eastern United States Saturday. Next surge of colder air reaches area on Sunday morning then moderates on moves northeast on Monday. Timing of cold front on Saturday is slightly faster, with boundary into southern Virgina in the morning. Overall along with the colder air, the air mass dries out behind the front on Saturday. Pressure rises, cold air advection and 40 to 50 knot low level jet will result in gusty wind Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Trough gets re-enforced Monday and Tuesday. More cold air arrives for Tuesday. Moisture in the 1000-700 MB level will return to the western mountains, deep enough for some upslope showers on Tuesday.
Confidence is average for all elements.