|Dew Point:||24.0°F (-4.4°C)|
|Wind:||From the NW at 3.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.03" (1016.7 mb)|
Chance Rain And SnowLow: 31
Chance Drizzle then Partly SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 37
RainHigh: 46 Low: 30
Chance Light SnowHigh: 33 Low: 10
M.L. King Jr. Day
SunnyHigh: 28 Low: 18
A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of drizzle and a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of drizzle and a chance of rain and snow before 7am, then areas of fog and a chance of rain between 7am and 8am, then patchy fog and a chance of rain and snow between 8am and noon. Partly sunny. High near 46, with temperatures falling to around 40 in the afternoon. West wind 6 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Rain and snow likely before 7am, then a chance of rain and snow between 7am and 8am, then a chance of snow and a chance of freezing rain between 8am and 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
A slight chance of snow showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.
Sunny, with a high near 28.
Mostly clear, with a low around 18.
... An upper level disturbance will cross the region tonight before exiting on Friday. Following this relatively weak weather system, a much stronger arctic cold front is expected to impact the area over the weekend with a period of rain, followed by much colder temperatures on strong northwest winds into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1020 PM EST Thursday...
Seeing the back edge to the precip across eastern KY but still have a few hours more of off and on snow in the mountains, parts of the valleys along and west of the Blue Ridge. Will maintain advisories, but likely will see them get canceled early especially from the foothills of VA southwest to the NC mountains, as anticipating moisture to become shallower and limited to the western slopes of SE WV overnight. With forecast soundings showing some drier air moving in across the best dendritic growth area, will likely see a transition to drizzle/freezing drizzle. 8h temps are rising and models showing temps slowly rising toward dawn, so expect mainly a chance of light rain/drizzle possibly snow in the higher ridges along with fog.
Previous discussion from earlier this evening...
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until 10 am Friday for along and west of Blue ridge.
Wintry mixture falling across our forecast area this evening. Trend of precipitation on KFCX WSR-88d showed decreased in areal coverage and weakening of precipitation. The HRRR and HiResW- arw-East indicated that precipitation will taper off east of Blue Ridge, but in the west lingering upslope snow/rain/drizzle and possibly some pockets of freezing drizzle will persist into Friday morning before finally coming to an end by Friday afternoon. Made some adjustments in temperatures utilizing latest surface obs and trends. Modified pops and weather to capture push out to east of precip and used Mixed precip top down ensemble tool to adjust PTYPE. In general, pushed some snow a little further out to the east. More changes later tonight...
Thanks for the snow reports!
As of 120 PM EST Thursday...
The leading edge of precipitation is moving in from the southwest and rates are high enough to allow for generally all a period of all snow at the onset. The snow will cone down at a good clip with a quick accumulation expected to cause some slick travel, so the winter weather advisory has been expanded to include the entire area west of the Blue Ridge. As the precipitation continues but lightens up a bit it should start the process of transitioning to a wintry mix. This will allow for a light glaze of freezing rain mainly at the higher elevations. Snow accumulations west of the Blue Ridge generally look to be around an inch or two with a light glaze of ice from freezing rain. Western Greenbrier will see slightly more in the way of snow with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected along with some ice.
As a weak cold front pushes through overnight it will allow precipitation to taper off east of the Blue Ridge but lingering upslope rain/drizzle and possibly some pockets of freezing drizzle will persist into Friday morning before finally coming to an end by the afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be fairly steady to slowly rising through the low/mid 30s. Highs on Friday will warm well above normal with middle 50s east of the Blue Ridge and low to mid 40s to the west.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM EST Thursday...
Strong inflow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon. By Saturday night precipitable water values are well above average for this time of year, from 0.75 to 1.0 inches. Will continue to mention the possible flood threat for the rivers in the Hazardous weather outlook. The bulk of this deeper moisture will be well east of southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia, and northwest North Carolina by 7AM/12Z Sunday.
There will be shallow layer of cold air at the surface with a layer of much warmer 4air above it on Saturday. Onset of the precipitation in the mountains may be freezing rain depending on how fast the precipitation arrives. Will take a blend of the NAM and the slightly faster GFS for the onset time from west to east on Saturday.
Bufkit forecast soundings from the NAMNest, NAM and GFS all show precipitation has ended east of the Blue Ridge before temperatures become cold enough for winter precipitation Sunday morning. Surface low will be just moving off the east coast with the cold front extending through eastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. Low level moisture wrapping around the low on Sunday will prolong snowfall in the mountains. Liquid equivalent of precipitation will be less than one half inch but snow ratios will be getting larger as the air gets colder. Will take until early Monday morning for enough dry air to come into southeast West Virginia before the snow showers end and the clouds erode.
Upslope direction of the wind will not be ideal, due to a more northerly component to the wind but still good enough for enhancing the snow showers through Sunday night from Greenbrier County in the mountains of northwest North Carolina. Momentum transfer forecast suggest gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be common from behind the front through Sunday night. Impressive pressure rises and cold air advection will aide in bringing up wind speeds and gust. Dangerous wind chills and the potential for black ice will also be highlighted in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM EST Thursday...
Brief period of ridging at 500 MB Tuesday then second strong 500 MB short wave comes onshore on the west coast as the upper pattern evolves into a deep upper trough covering much of the continental United States for Wednesday and Thursday.
850MB temperatures forecast to range from -22 across southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia to -14 in northern North Carolina on Monday morning. Pressure gradient weakens on Monday and Monday night and by Tuesday axis of high pressure will be over Virginia and North Carolina. So the wind will gradually diminish this time frame.
Cold air retreats north Tuesday as low level winds come around to the southwest ahead of the next low pressure system. Timing on the ECMWF and other guidance bring the next cold front and associated precipitation through the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas on Wednesday or Thursday.