|Dew Point:||34.0°F (1.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the West at 20.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||25°F (-4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.02" (1016.5 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 29
SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 30
SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 36
Light RainHigh: 45 Low: 38
RainHigh: 44 Low: 31
Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 2 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind around 3 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 48. South wind 1 to 5 mph.
A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
... A large area of high pressure will build over the eastern United States and bring generally quiet weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the midweek. However, a developing area of low pressure will move out of the deep south and bring some rain back to the forecast by Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM EST Monday...
High confidence forecast today, with low clouds banked up against the western slopes, with perhaps some patchy drizzle/rain showers, with even threat of patchy freezing drizzle or snow showers over the mountains of western Greenbrier this morning, but not enough to warrant advisory.
Fog will also be around in the higher terrain of the mountains through the morning. Shortwave shifts east of the area by late morning, so looking at a period of brisk conditions behind it, but with lack of any pressure rises, not seeing any gusts over 45 mph. The higher elevations could gust to 40 mph through mid afternoon though.
Seeing some orographic lee side cirrus this morning, and models and pattern favor potential for another round of the cirrus/cirrostratus in the foothills/piedmont the afternoon, but will keep skies more on the sunny side, but something to bear watching.
Northwest flow continues through tonight but should limit any clouds to the higher slopes of SE WV. Still potential for lee side cirrus to obscure the sky this evening.
Overall, looking at temps about 5 degrees above normal today with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 across the mountains, to mid to upper 50s as you head east of the Blue Ridge.
Tonight expect closer to normal lows with mid to upper 20s mountains, to around 30 east.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Monday...
Overall an uneventful, quiescent stretch of weather ahead for Tuesday and Wednesday, as broad surface ridge of high pressure settles into the forecast area, with shortwave ridging occurring aloft. Expect daytime hours Tuesday and Wednesday to feature plentiful sunshine with strong radiational cooling occurring for Tuesday night. Should see highs Tuesday in the mid 40s to low 50s, then falling Tuesday night to within a few degrees either side of freezing though milder mid-30s along ridgetops. Should see highs solidly in the low-mid 50s under sunshine and as warm advection boosts 850 mb temps to +5 to +7C. Forecast confidence is high in this part of the forecast period.
Pattern begins to change Wednesday night as surface ridge shifts off the coast and upstream 500 mb height falls begin to affect our CWA. A southern stream closed mid/upper low over the southern Plains region begins to phase with northern stream energy over the northern Rockies late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This mainly affects when precipitation will begin, but it's expected this precip would fall as entirely rain. A slower/more amplified and phased solution along the lines of the 00z ECMWF/Canadian would favor precip beginning Thursday, while a less-phased solution would potentially favor an earlier start time along the lines of the 00z GFS depiction. Official forecast will take a middle ground compromise approach, which brings increasing clouds Wednesday night with low- end PoPs across the southern/southwestern counties. Cloud cover looks to be mostly high clouds initially until lowering/thickening further for the overnight, but even that still should be enough to support early lows with temperatures hovering Wednesday night in the mid/upper 30s. By Thursday, have shown solid Chance to lower Likely PoPs first part of the day, with lower end Categorical PoPs areawide come the afternoon/evening hours. Surface sea-level isobars, easterly/northeast surface winds and isothermal to stable low-level profile suggest that initial precip will likely fall into a wedge and have biased Thursday high temperatures toward colder guidance (upper 40s to mid 50s). Pronounced meridional component brings elevated PWAT plume of +2 standard deviations across our area Thursday afternoon but especially Thursday evening. Will show rain amounts through Thursday afternoon between a quarter to third of an inch, with more coming for Thursday night/Friday. Forecast confidence for Wednesday night/Thursday is moderate, with some uncertainties to be ironed out pertaining mostly to precip start time.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Monday...
Thursday night looks to be wet, in addition to Friday, although there is some indication we may dry slot Friday, the steadier rain abating as we transition into what appears to be a warm sector. If this occurs, then the precipitation will become more showery in nature...and IF we break out and get a little sun, then instability could drive deep convection. Attm, there are too many IFs to add this sort of detail to the forecast so will stick with a general high likelihood of rain or rain threat for both Thursday and Friday.
Current rain projections of a half inch /0.50/ to an inch /1.00/ are being progged in association with the isentropic lift Thursday/Thursday night. This alone is not much of a concern for flooding in spite of the wet antecedent conditions. However, depending on how Friday shakes out with respect to any deep convection, any short duration heavy rainfall would most certainly raise concerns with respect to flooding or flash flooding. Until Friday's mental picture comes into a little more focus will continue to entertain low probability for hazardous weather.
As for the weekend, colder temperatures are expected on the back side of this storm system in addition to some wind. Any lingering moisture would change to snow showers or flurries across the mountains with the potential for some light accumulations...favoring elevations above 3500 ft.
Hazards Thu/Fri = Low Probability for Flooding Hazards Sat/Sun = Low Probability for Wind