|Dew Point:||25.7°F (-3.5°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Chance Snow ShowersLow: 25
Chance Snow Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 35 Low: 23
Mostly SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 25
SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 31
Chance Light RainHigh: 49 Low: 40
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
A chance of snow showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 13 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Clear, with a low around 25. West wind 1 to 8 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 48.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
A chance of rain after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... A strong cold front will move east into the Atlantic ocean tonight into Wednesday. It will usher in colder temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and mountain snow flurries tonight into Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate to above normal again later in the week before the next frontal system arrives during the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1035 PM EST Tuesday...
Wind advisory remains in effect across the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge until 10AM Wednesday morning.
Showers were developing in the upslope area of West Virginia late this evening. At 10PM temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 30s in all but the highest elevations from southeast West Virginia into northwest North Carolina. There may still be a few hours of a rain-snow mix as temperatures continue to drop.
Weak upper shortwave may help snow showers in the western Greenbrier county. Any snow accumulations will generally be light and less than an inch. Have slightly adjusted minimum temperatures based on expected mixing and latest LAV guidance.
Northwest flow with clouds and snow flurries along with snow showers will continue Wednesday in the mountains. High pressure will build in from the west with drier air. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 20s in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EST Tuesday...
An upper level trough over New England and eastern Canada will linger into Thursday with cold, but a near normal sort of airmass for January lingering over the forecast area. An embedded short wave will pass through the base of the trough Wednesday night, skirting the Mid-Atlantic region. Moisture associated with this feature is shallow, but will provide abundant low level cloud cover across the mountains west of the Blue Ridge with scattered snow showers and flurries Wednesday night and early Thursday. QPF is forecast to be a tenth of an inch or less, with most of this falling along our western slopes. It is conceivable for elevations above 4000 feet to pick up an inch or two of snow, but looking for flurries in adjacent valleys, and little or no precip east of the Blue Ridge.
The upper level flow pattern becomes more zonal Thursday, temperatures warming aloft. This will bring an end to any moisture by Thursday afternoon with skies clearing for Thursday night followed by a mostly sunny day Friday.
Thursday's temperatures will be on the cool side, but actually really close to normals for this time of year. After a frosty start Friday, temperatures are expected to rebound above normal as we transition into the weekend with highs Friday afternoon edging into the 50s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 450 AM EST Tuesday...
As we move into the weekend, the next in the series of short waves within a continued progressive upper flow will move from the Midwest into the eastern U.S. The ECMWF suggest that this could be a decent liquid precipitation maker for the forecast area as the system becomes more amplified as it moves into the eastern U.S., and low pressure develops off the northern Mid- Atlantic coast, while the GFS is much weaker, faster and less excited bringing about just brief period of showers. WPC seems to be favoring the slower ECMWF, which brings a general 1-2 inches of rainfall to the area in the Sun-Mon time frame.
Little concern about winter weather with the weekend/early next week system as 850mb temperatures remain above 0C for several days, topping out in the +8C to +10C range as the front approaches Sun-Mon.
Given the differences in the intensity and timing between the ECMWF and the GFS, the degree of cold air that follows int the wake of this frontal system early next week and the amount of post frontal upslope snow showers will largely depend on which solution verifies. For now, will carry snow showers across just the Alleghanys following frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. 850mb temperatures fall back toward -8C per the ECMWF, but barely reach 0C per GFS with a flatter, more zonal flow.
At any rate, temperatures for the remainder of January will hover much closer to normal than the first two weeks did, with essentially equal periods of moderately above and moderately below normal. It could be said that the temperature variability will likely be greater than the degree above/below normal.