|Dew Point:||69.0°F (20.6°C)|
|Wind:||From the SW at 4.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.86" (1010.9 mb)|
Scattered Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 83 Low: 65
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 77 Low: 62
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 69 Low: 53
SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 55
SunnyHigh: 75 Low: 57
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 69. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
A chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Sunny, with a high near 75.
... High pressure across the region will gradually weaken and pass offshore tonight. This in advance of a strong cold front that should approach from the northwest Monday before crossing the area Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure following the front will bring much cooler and drier weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Band of deep slow moving convection that fired along a weak wave aloft combined with an axis of moisture convergence and high CAPE values due to heating continues to edge slowly north of the Highway 460 corridor. Latest HREF which has been best with this scenario lifts this band northeast while weakening by early this evening leaving only isolated storms in its wake. Will then likely see a lull after sunset if not sooner as weak subsidence returns well in advance of the upstream pre-frontal convection. Thus trimming back on pops this evening before perhaps seeing more showers work into the far west after midnight, but this remains iffy. Otherwise despite some cooling from storms in the east, plan to keep going headlines in place into this evening with muggy lows mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Cold front approaches on Monday with increasing southwest flow ahead of the boundary aiding deeper moisture convergence espcly mountains in the afternoon. However models have again slowed up the arrival of the pre-frontal trough showers with these attempting to jump into the piedmont lee trof later in the day. Progged instability not terribly impressive given some cooling aloft and surface temps less than the last few days. Still appears enough coverage to warrant high pops out to the Blue Ridge with some pulse nature severe potential at this point. Therefore will stay close to the latest HREF with bands of convection heading off the mountains in the afternoon. Will still be hot in the east but overall below advisory criteria so not expecting any added headlines at this point. Otherwise range of highs from the 70s/low 80s west to 90-95 east espcly if showers are slower despite less downsloping.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
A cold front will approach the area on Monday. The question moving forward for Monday night, does prefrontal convection clear out the majority of the instabilities during the day? Latest models think so, but keeps the heavy rain with the frontal passage overnight. It is believed the stronger/severe storms will be during the afternoon/evening along a lee trough over the piedmont where better jet dynamics are east of the Blue Ridge. Rain of a half to one inch will accompany the frontal passage Monday night. With the front tracking north to south and an upper level ridge off the east coast, showers will move slowly over the region, so local higher amounts of rain is possible. The front will clear the Blue Ridge by noon Tuesday, then east of the Piedmont by the end of the afternoon. High pressure will bring cooler and drier weather into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
There may be a sharp temperature gradient over the area Monday night as the front moves across the region. Temperatures behind the front will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s while ahead of it, upper 60s to lower 70s. Cold air advection, rain and clouds will produce cooler than normal temperatures Tuesday with highs in the 70s across the area. There will also be a noticable drop in humidity as dew points dip into the 50s as the front passes to the east. Tuesday night will feature temperatures in the 50s across the mountains to lower 60s in the piedmont. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the 70s west of the Blue Ridge to the lower 80s east.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...
Surface high pressure will build into and northeast of the region should lead to mainly dry as well as much more comfortable conditions through much of the period. However moisture may slowly return into far southwest sections over the weekend. Thus will include some isolated pops along portions of the southwest mountains given heating/orographics but iffy since still looks quite dry aloft. Otherwise plan to leave out pops with mainly sunny days and clear overnights for most of the area at least into late week. Highs mostly 70s mountains to low/mid 80s east given rather cool 850 mb temperatures for late July. Temperatures will moderate warmer each day by a few degrees going into the weekend. Lows quite pleasant with 50s west, including perhaps a few 40s valleys Thursday/Friday pending fog, and mostly 60s east of the Blue Ridge.