|Dew Point:||63.8°F (17.7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.06" (1017.8 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 76 Low: 54
Mostly SunnyHigh: 73 Low: 51
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 73 Low: 53
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 69 Low: 54
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 69 Low: 53
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind around 7 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Northeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
... A cold front will move across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region today, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially east of the Blue Ridge. A large high pressure system will move out of central Canada and build eastward behind the front tonight, bringing significantly cooler temperatures to the region into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 935 AM EDT Wednesday...
Cold front in the mountains this morning will move southeast this afternoon into tonight. This boundary will create scattered showers and thunderstorms especially east of the Blue ridge. For the morning update, adjusted temperatures with the latest surface obs and trends, then shaped values towards lav headings into the afternoon. Will hold with current high temperatures, but readings will be dependent on cloud cover and convection. Most of our area is under general thunderstorms with a small portion in the southeast clipped by the marginal severe weather on the SPC Day One outlook. In any case, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be off to our east with best instability and richer Capes. Adjusted pops for this morning with latest radar trends, then blended in the HRRR for this afternoon into tonight. More changes later...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...
Showers/some thunder out ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest are having little success advancing into the region. Given the lack of upper support believe this will continue to be the case until the actual frontal boundary arrives later this morning and starts working across the area. This timing will allow for diurnal heating to generate some surface based instability and help reinvigorate convection along the front east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. However, the best low level winds and dynamic support will be moving by to our north which will greatly limit the potential for any thunderstorms to become severe. There may be a window later this afternoon when enough surface based instability can pool just ahead of the front to give storms a boost in the far southeastern portion of the area, but this potential is marginal at best. Will trend convection in the grids from west to east with improving conditions indicated behind the front as winds become northwest.
A large high pressure system will move out of central Canada and build eastward behind the front, bringing an end to any lingering showers early tonight. Slackening winds west of the Blue Ridge and a cooler airmass should help generate some late night valley fog.
Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s east of the Ridge, while the earlier passage of the front keeps readings in the mid/upper 70s to the west. Lows tonight will be notably cooler with mid 60s east, low/mid 50s west.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...
A broad upper trough will remain in place across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes, with the base of the trough across our CWA. The cold front of today will move well to our south and east and should extend across southeast North Carolina into central Georgia at 12Z Thu. All associated shower activity should be well south of our area. During the afternoon and evening, a short wave embedded within the broad upper trough will sweep through the Ohio Valley into PA, with the dynamics of the trough impinging on the far northern parts of the CWA, especially the Alleghanys. This feature should bring lots of clouds to upslope areas of the Alleghanys, mainly north of I-64, with even a few showers possible during max diurnal heating across northwestern Greenbrier county. By far, the greater chance of showers will be further north toward Snowshoe and Elkins. This feature will track northeast of the region Thursday evening taking any threat of showers with it. For Friday, a large sprawling high pressure area will slide eastward across the Great Lakes toward NY and PA. This will begin to set up east to southeast flow along the Blue Ridge and a few showers will be possible especially along the southern Blue Ridge from Watauga county northeast toward Grayson and Carroll. Lots of clouds can also be expected in these areas by afternoon. The showers should dissipate during the evening.
A notable drop in 850mb temperatures will be noted during this period from the current situation. Looks like the end of the +20C 850mb temperatures for a while, perhaps most of the rest of August as a pocket of cool air first moves into the region from the northwest, then more from the northeast into Friday as the surface high moves east. 850mb temps will drop back into the +10C to +14C range. The most notable surge of this cooler air will come behind the upper short wave slated to move across northern areas Thu. Max temperatures especially will drop to just below normal levels Thu to several degrees below normal by Friday. Min temperatures will be below normal, but not to the degree of the max temperatures. Clouds and moisture may limit overnight cooling, especially across the Piedmont and NC Foothills. Look for temperatures to average about 10 degrees cooler than current conditions with near 70 west higher elevations to around 80 Piedmont. Lows will be mostly in the 50s west to around 60 across the Piedmont.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure will linger across the northeast U.S. through the weekend keeping an easterly flow across the region and enhancing clouds and showers along the Blue Ridge, especially northwest NC into far southwest VA. Diurnal showers appear possible Saturday and Sunday, with a tendency for the activity to drift more in eastern TN and western NC with time. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through the weekend thanks to the northeast flow and 850mb temperatures hovering around +12C through the weekend.
As we move into early next week, the pattern becomes increasingly complicated thanks to the remnants of Harvey that are progged to move into the western Gulf over the weekend, then inland somewhere along the western Gulf Coast, TX/LA area. Weak steering current aloft do not help predictability at this point. While all of the models are in general agreement about the initial movement of this system, considerable timing differences arise after it moves inland and subsequently where the remnants will track, perhaps northeast through our region or more likely the TN/OH Valley, or potentially on a more eastward track through the south and southeastern U.S. The GFS has the effects of Harvey combining with the wedge in place over our area and thus rain moving into the area as soon as Monday night, while the ECMWF still has the tropical system along the TX/LA coast line. Meanwhile, a weaker tropical system is poised to be lingering off the southeast U.S. coast, which appears to further enhance the wedge across our region. To say the least, weather conditions will become quite interesting next week as these systems interact and control the synoptic situation across the eastern U.S. Some solutions would have our area becoming quite wet by the mid part of next week, while others do not. Stay tuned!
With persistent high pressure to our northeast and an easterly surface flow into the region, look for below normal temperatures to continue 850mb temperatures will hover in the +14C to +16C range into early next week. Maximum temperatures will be well below normal with highs in the 60s and 70s, although lows will just be near normal thanks to increasing cloud cover and a moist maritime easterly flow.