|Dew Point:||27.1°F (-2.7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.17" (1021.6 mb)|
Partly CloudyLow: 30
SunnyHigh: 52 Low: 33
SunnyHigh: 56 Low: 36
Mostly SunnyHigh: 60 Low: 34
SunnyHigh: 51 Low: 30
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind around 2 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 52. South wind 1 to 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 33. West northwest wind around 3 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 56. Southeast wind 1 to 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. West southwest wind around 3 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
... In general, dry high pressure will persist over the area through early next week. A couple of cold fronts will pass the area without enough moisture for precipitation. Temperatures will remain seasonable.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 9:35 pm EST Wednesday: Weather should be nearly ideal for Thanksgiving Day. Front that passed-through on Tuesday is now well southeast of the area, leaving northeasterly flow and dry advection behind it. A bit of an upper trough digs into the Deep South on Thursday, but will have little moisture to work with at low-levels, and surface low associated with it will remain well south of the area. Some high clouds look to be the only impact from this trough. A large surface high pressure area will become centered along the mountains by Thursday morning. Winds through Thursday will thus be much lighter and somewhat variable. The light winds and very dry near-surface air should allow for a large diurnal range, with Thu morning's min temps likely bottoming out about 5 degrees below climo, or roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wed morning. Thursday will be a dry and crisp fall day with temperatures slightly above seasonal normal.
Fog that was seen this morning is unlikely on Thursday as BL drying has dropped dewpoints 10 degrees or so.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday...With sfc high pressure across the area Thursday night, latest guidance continues to depict the development of a sfc low in the Gulf of Mexico which is progged to move across northern FL and hug the FL/GA/Carolina coast throughout the day on Friday, per the GFS/ECMWF. With split flow, this track would allow for NW flow aloft to persist across our forecast as seen from fcst soundings suggesting PWATs to remain at or below one half of an inch. However, the latest NAM, west of both the GFS and ECMWF, continues to track this system a bit northward and inland up through GA/SC. If this track were to evolve, fcst soundings are highlighting PWATs at or just above one inch. For this forecast package, am going to stick with the drier trend of the GFS/ECMWF. With nearly clear skies overnight Thursday, anticipate temperatures to dip into the low to mid 30's before climbing into the upper 50's to around 60 degrees on Friday.
Expect temperatures to be slightly warmer/near-normal Friday night as limited moisture allows for mid to high clouds to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Per latest guidance, anticipate the front to push through the area Saturday morning. With limited available moisture and weak forcing, have kept precipitation out of the forecast attm. As clouds gradually decrease behind the front and flow aloft becomes nearly zonal, expect temperatures on Saturday to climb into the lower 60's, though cooler across the mountains.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 2:15 PM Wednesday: An Upper level northwesterly flow will be in place Saturday night, following the earlier surface cold frontal passage. This will signal a trend toward cooler temperatures across our forecast area (FA) for the latter half of the weekend. The GFS does show some very shallow moisture in the northern mountains of North Carolina briefly on Saturday night, but its depth appears to shallow for any precipitation.
High pressure will move from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday, into our FA Sunday night and Monday. Aloft the flow remains dry northwesterly, although easing by late Monday.
The surface high will continue moving south and east of the region Tuesday, while the flow aloft backs to the southwest. This will signal the start of a warming trend, but still dry.
In the latter part of the forecast the models diverge on how fast to move a cold front into our area Wednesday. The GFS was fast, while the European was slower. The slower European was backing and cutting off parts of the upper level flow. This far out in the forecast suggests a compromise is in order. We will have some low end POPS in the mountains and part of the foothills of western North Carolina, parts of northeast Georgia, and a sliver of the mountains in upstate South Carolina Wednesday.
Temperatures Wednesday will be tricky depending on how fast any mid week front enters the picture.