|Dew Point:||59.0°F (15.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the WSW at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 7.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.58" (1001.6 mb)|
Lo 58 °F
Lo 50 °F
Lo 50 °F
Lo 57 °F
Lo 61 °F
Showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Light west southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before noon, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 68. Light south southwest wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog between midnight and 3am. Low around 50. South southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 3pm, then a chance of showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light west northwest wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
A chance of showers between 9am and noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
. This will be gradually tapered off as it crosses the fcst area, if only because the guidance handles it poorly so as to suggest it will fall apart. Temps look ok.
Otherwise...still expecting another lull in action during the early morning hours, with mainly light rain continuing in the western mountains as 850 mb flow veers more westerly tonight before backing southerly by daybreak Wednesday.
A more potent 120 to 130 kt upper jet will move over the region on Wednesday as the trough sharpens up to the west. In addition, southerly flow at low levels will improve upglide and coverage. Locations along and southeast of I-85 will see the best chance of having an uncovered warm sector airmass Wednesday afternoon with instability bubbling sbCAPE to near 2000 J/kg. In addition, Piedmont 850 mb wind speeds should reach 25 to 35 kt by late afternoon during peak heating to briefly enhance bulk shear values and drive the best severe thunderstorm threat. Model QPF is not terribly impressive, but the convective rates could once again raise the hydro threat. See the Hydro discussion section for details on the Flash Flood/Flood Watch thought process for the ongoing hydro threat.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: The short term fcst period kicks off on Wednesday evening amidst amplified upper flow thanks to a slow moving closed H5 cyclone centered atop the MidSouth region, while a series of shortwave impulses pass through the mean flow aloft. At the surface, guidance favors an approaching cold front from the west as a warm front lifts well to the north. With that, mesolow development beneath one of the aforementioned upper shortwaves is possible through late evening just ahead of the cold front. As such, broad scale upper divergence ahead of the primary H5 cyclone will provide ample synoptic scale lift to support remnant convection into the evening hours therefore warranting the continuation of elevated pops in the likely/categorical ranges, before lowering through the night into Thursday morning.
For Thursday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated as the upper low moves overhead providing continued large scale ascent atop the southern Appalachians. With that, fcst soundings favor cooling aloft that will effectively steepen lapse rates in the mid levels, which would yield increased chances for convection across the region if not for lowering surface dewpoints behind the front. As such, models suggest a relatively stable environment across the southern tier of the fcst area where the drier air will have its first impacts, while profiles are slightly more unstable to the north where upper 50s dewpoints are progged through mid day. Therefore, although not likely, think chances for deep/strong convection on Thursday should remain confined to the NC zones, specifically along/north of I40. Otherwise, the heavy rain threat will diminish early in the period, likely by early morning Thursday as llv flow becomes more veered. Friday looks to be a rather quiet day weather wise as the upper low ejects to the northeast allowing heights to rise as a ridge builds in from the west. As a result, expecting dry conditions with mostly sunny skies allowing for abundant warming. Temperatures behind the front will suffer somewhat as highs top out a few degrees below normal for Thursday, before returning rather sharply to above normal by Friday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 pm EDT Tuesday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Saturday with low amplitude upper ridging beginning to build over the region as broad upper trofing lifts off the New England Coast. The ridge is expected to flatten out as we move into Sunday and another broad upper trof digs down over the Northern Plains. It appears that some lobes of mid to upper lvl shortwave energy will pass just to our north on Sunday, however the main trof will be slow to move eastward and won`t approach the fcst area until later in the period. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered to our SE with warm SLY flow in place over the region. A cold front will approach the CWFA on Sunday but likely won`t move thru the area until Monday. It appears to become stationary just to our SE by early Tues and lingers over the area thru the remainder of the period. As for the sensible fcst, no significant changes were made. We still have slight to solid chances for showers and ts each day with the highest POPs over the higher terrain. Temps will be above climatology thru the period with little change from day to day.