|Dew Point:||53.3°F (11.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.97" (1014.8 mb)|
Isolated Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 83 Low: 64
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 64
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 82 Low: 63
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 64
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 80 Low: 62
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 2 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
... Seasonal temperatures and humid conditions will persist over the next few days while unsettled weather returns ahead of a front drifting down from the Great Lakes. Drier weather is expected by the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 2:15pm EDT Sunday: Main player for the near term is the progress of an upper wave currently over Oklahoma. This wave progresses eastward, reaching the Mississippi Valley area by Monday evening. As wave approaches, chances for afternoon thunder increase. For today, chances are somewhat low with airmass largely capped over the piedmont, but with some initiation over higher terrain likely. SBCAPE analysis gives around 2000 j/kg of CAPE today, along with weak bulk shear. Cams have isolated to scattered strong updrafts over the higher terrain this afternoon, suggesting some risk of a few isolated severe reports in the form of downed trees or other wind damage from storm outflows. Chances and coverage for thunderstorms increase Monday afternoon as upper wave approaches the region (and are even higher on Tuesday). Heaviest showers, though, are still expected over the higher terrain where initiation will be more widespread. Thunder will be largely diurnal, with activity declining after sunset today and tomorrow.
Surface features change little over the next 36 hours, with a broad high over the Atlantic, and light to moderate southerly to southwesterly surface winds that will serve to keep dewpoints seasonally elevated. Temperatures will also be fairly monotonous, with highs and lows just above climo.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Tuesday with flat upper ridging still in place over the region as a fairly well-defined upper shortwave gradually approaches the Western Carolinas from the west. The latest model guidance has the shortwave moving over the CWFA late Tues into early Wed and moving off the coast by the end of the period late Wed. At the sfc, the Bermuda high will still be in control of the large scale pattern with warm, SLY flow in place as the period begins. On Tues, the models appear to be coming into better agreement with regards to the development of another sfc low to the NW. They have the low lifting NE towards the Ohio River Valley late Tues/early Wed and then over New England later on Wed. The weak cold front associated with this low will push thru the fcst area Wednesday morning/afternoon and move offshore by the end of the period late Wed. The profiles behind the front appear somewhat drier but the change is not that significant. With a lingering lee trof over the area on Wednesday, sfc winds may become more WLY behind the front briefly, but they will revert back to a more SWLY direction by late Wednesday. The approaching upper shortwave should provide some upper support for convection on Tues with Wed seeing less convective activity. Severe wx parameters suggest that some of the convection on Tuesday could become severe with the NC Mountains and Foothills the more favored area. At this time it appears that damaging straight- line winds, and to a lesser extent, large hail will be the main threats. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal for mid- June.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 PM EDT Sunday: Starting at 00Z Thursday. After a series of smaller disturbances moving fairly quickly from west to east from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, a strong shortwave will cross Missouri Wednesday evening headed our way. On Thursday morning, both the GFS and ECMWF have convection from Arkansas to OHIO and moving toward our forecast area. The atmosphere is forecast to be a bit more stable late Thursday over our area as CAPE values are lower than yesterday's projections. The current EC is a bit faster with this shortwave than the GFS. EC has axis at 00Z Fri from CLE to TYS and ATL and GFS has axis from Crossville TN to BMH. Convection should continue well into Thursday night then move east of our forecast area Friday morning. The models agree on Friday being drier as a 500mb ridge builds over the East. It is uncertain at this point as to how much a fast moving system will affect us late Saturday. The EC has it passing by to our north giving us a glancing shot of rain while the GFS has us more impacted. Will adjust POPs accordingly. The EC has us drier Sunday while the GFS has rain. If storms develop late Saturday or Sunday over the far west...near Tennessee and Georgia...CAPEs 2000 to 3000 could fuel a potent storm.
Temperatures near normal Thursday and Friday warming by Sunday to 2 to 5 degrees above normal.