|Dew Point:||49.0°F (9.4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.57" (1001.2 mb)|
Hi 66 °F
Hi 78 °F
Hi 82 °F
Hi 80 °F
Hi 76 °F
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 66. Light northwest wind becoming west 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
A 20 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind 5 to 8 mph.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers between 10am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
erday`s cold front. The parent upper low will push up the Ohio Valley today, with a shortwave extension over the Tennessee Valley progged to damp and be re-absorbed by the primary low. This secondary low is responsible for the light precip across N AL/GA, and just about all guidance has this precip dissipating as that southern extension gets eaten up over the next couple of hours. While it`s not out of the question that we could see some precip across NE GA/Upstate SC over the next few hours, pretty much all the hires guidance follow the pattern of the global models and really diminish the precip into nothingness. Of greater note will be the main low that rides up the Central Appalachians toward the eastern Great Lakes today. Lee troughing induced just east of the Appalachians will keep a firm hold on the area today, with a brief but notable increase in the pressure gradient through the day, leading to some breezy winds across the area. Should see a redevelopment of showers across the northern tier as the DPVA moves across, and some low-end sbCAPE is progged across portions of the northwest Piedmont. While deep layer shear isn`t impressive (30-40kt), that combined with the increased lapse rates from the CAA aloft plus the surface instability may be enough for some scattered thunderstorms as well. Gusty winds and small hail would be the main concerns. SPC`s Day1 outlook includes a sliver of Davie and Rowan in the Marginal Risk, so cannot rule out a brief strong to low-end severe storm as well, but chances seem pretty minimal across western NC (a little better farther east).
Should be another very nice day with the aforementioned CAA, with high temperatures today a good 10 degrees or so below seasonal normals. Another cool night tonight, about 5 degrees below normal, with clearing skies and pops shrinking to only the extreme northern mountains before ending by the end of the period.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thu: A low-amplitude ridge will remain over our region Friday and Saturday. Initially westerly low-level flow will back to southwesterly as a warm front lifts north thru the Tenn Valley and western Carolinas. This will bring back seasonably warm temps Friday, that trend further upward for Saturday.
Strong subsidence and relatively low dewpoints will preclude convection on Friday, but by Saturday conditions will be more favorable. Thus slight chance to chance PoPs will be advertised northwest of I-85; a subsidence inversion most likely will keep a lid on things to the southeast. In fact model SBCAPEs are quite impressive aside from the capping. Furthermore, the height gradient aloft will be enough to produce some modest upper winds and deep shear. So Saturday will be a day where we may struggle to initiate an updraft, but if that does occur the cells quickly could become troublesome. SREF probs of DCAPE > 1000 J/kg are in the "chance" range, with the operational GFS generally in the 500-1000 range. Multicell storms producing robust cold pools and wind damage are not out of the question.
Small PoPs will be retained in the NW half of the CWFA Saturday night for the possibility that convective debris may linger and/or a remnant MCV move in. High clouds will increase ahead of the next frontal system.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thu: Another deep upper low will settle into the Great Lakes during the medium range period. As heights fall to our west and northwest, low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley. Our area will be in the warm sector of this system Sunday before the cold front drives southeastward Monday. Lapse rates aloft suggest some convection may develop ahead of the front, though the degree of low-level capping is in question, given that the front is displacing a subtropical ridge. As noted for Saturday, relatively robust CAPE, DCAPE and shear appear likely to be present Sunday, so where the cap is unable to hinder convection, severe storms easily could develop. GFS suggests deeper moisture Monday will reduce instability, but it is too early to say with certainty that the threat will be lower then. Max temps will remain a few degrees above normal Sunday, falling back to near normal Monday.
While it looks like the front will have passed by early Tuesday, the 24/12z EC develops a frontal wave that could allow precip to linger over the area; this is plausible given the upper pattern. A secondary cold front will push in late Tuesday or Wednesday, reinforcing slightly below normal temps, but bringing only mediocre forcing for precip. Dry conditions return following that front.