Cataloochee Ski Area

Maggie Valley, NC

INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

Currently

Temperature 16.07°F
Feels Like 10.45°F
Humidity 86%
Pressure 1024mb
Wind 3.49mph from the NW
Scattered clouds 16°F Scattered clouds
Today Sunny
High: 46°F Low: 31°F
Wednesday Sunny
High: 51°F Low: 35°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 53°F Low: 39°F
Friday Slight Chance Light Rain then Rain Showers Likely
High: 42°F Low: 39°F
Saturday Chance Rain Showers then Partly Sunny
High: 48°F Low: 30°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Drier and cool conditions continue today as Canadian high pressure moves over the Southeast. Warmer temperatures return Wednesday into Thursday with continued dry weather. A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and rain back on Friday, with rain chances potentially lingering into Saturday morning. High pressure should build back in from the northwest to salvage the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday: No major changes were needed as the forecast remains on track. Temps in the Freeze Warning are still on track to drop below freezing prior to sunrise, with some locations already at or below freezing as of 630 AM. Wind chills this morning are in the upper teens to low 20s across the mountains and the low to mid 20s east of the mountains. Higher elevations in the NC mountains are seeing wind chills from the single digits to below zero. Cloud cover continues along the northern NC/TN border this morning, but clear skies persist elsewhere. Cloud cover will continue decreasing through daybreak along the NC/TN border, becoming sunny by mid-morning. Wind gusts will linger across the mountains this morning, but should gradually decrease in speed as the pressure gradient relaxes. Since the growing season has already started in the SC Upstate, portions of NE GA, and the southern NC Foothills and Piedmont, the Freeze Warning remains in place for these locations through 10 AM. After this time, temps will be above freezing in these locations.

It will remain dry and cool again today, with breezy winds returning this afternoon. Although gusts will not be as strong as yesterday, abundant insolation will lead to minimum RH values falling below 25% across the forecast area today. In coordination with land managers and neighboring forecast offices, an SPS for Increased Fire Danger was issued for all of western North Carolina and northeast Georgia for this afternoon and evening. See the fire weather discussion below for more details. Winds will start out NW this morning, turning SW (east of the mountains) and W/WNW (across the mountains) by this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will end up 3 to 8 degrees below climo. Breeze winds will remain across the mountains through the overnight hours, while winds east of the mountains will gradually diminish during the early overnight hours. Although clear skies will remain in place tonight, lows will be around 5-10 degrees warmer than lows this morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 206 AM EDT Tuesday: The middle part of the week continues to look quiet for the most part. A broad low amplitude mid/upper trof over the east half of the United States will slowly fill on Wednesday. The air mass over the Southeast modifies quickly as heights rise, with temperatures rebounding back to five degrees above normal for Wednesday afternoon, while keeping the RH relatively low. That gives us one more day with much of the area east of the mountains getting down into the 25-30 percent range, but wind should not be significant. One final reinforcing cold front should cross the region from the NW Wednesday evening, but the upstream air mass is not nearly as cold as the previous one. Low temps should be close to normal Wednesday night and the highs on Thursday will only drop back 3-5 degrees compared to Wednesday with increased cloud cover, thus still on the warm side of normal. Changes should start happening on Thursday and into Thursday night as a srn stream system comes out over the southern Plains, building a downstream ridge over the Carolinas, which supports an elongated sfc high from Quebec to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by daybreak Friday. Moisture associated with the low approach from the west will begin to spread over the region in the overnight hours, with isentropic lift forcing the development of some light rain which may reach the ground before sunrise. The increased cloud cover should keep low temps above normal, and above freezing across the mtns as the precip begins.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday: By daybreak on Friday, all the players should be on stage for hybrid cold air damming to develop across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, with a 1032 mb high sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast in the morning and improving moist isentropic upglide and weak mid/upper forcing doing their part to spread light precip across the region from the southwest ahead of the upper trof moving across the lower MS Valley region. Precip chances quickly ramp up to likely by afternoon, helping to lock in the wedge air mass east of the mtns, while an almost Miller-B type low organizes to our southwest. For temps, we will undercut the NBM by several degrees, which should keep the high temps on Friday afternoon well below normal and not getting out of the low/mid 50s outside the mtns. Fcst soundings over the mtns suggest a snow level perhaps making it down to about 7k feet at some point, so a few wet snowflakes won't be ruled out on the tall peaks, but this will not be included at this time. A few embedded thunderstorms could develop over the southeastern fringe, but fortunately the wedge will preclude any severe storms owing to the lack of sfc-based buoyancy, which is good because shear will be strong. A low level jet feature should translate east across the region Friday night and take most of the rain with it before daybreak Saturday as a sfc low strengthens off the Southeast Coast, but the operational models keep the sfc low in close enough proximity early in the day to suggest that precip could easily linger well into the morning, while taking well into the afternoon to drain the wedge. That makes the temp forecast for Saturday really low confidence. The low should move away late in the day and high pressure builds in from the west to dry us out Saturday night.

The remainder of the medium range should be fairly quiet even as the pattern remains progressive. An upper ridge in the nrn stream will support a large sfc high ridging down across the region for Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper trof moving across the southwestern United States will help develop an increasingly SW flow aloft, though moisture and warm advection will be slow to return. The rest fcst will be kept dry with a slow warming trend.

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