|Dew Point:||43.0°F (6.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the NW at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 20.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.03" (1016.8 mb)|
Chance Light RainLow: 37
Patchy Fog then Mostly SunnyHigh: 49 Low: 38
Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 55 Low: 41
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 48 Low: 31
Mostly SunnyHigh: 41 Low: 33
A chance of rain before 1am, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. West wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. West northwest wind around 13 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. West northwest wind 12 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West northwest wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West northwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain showers likely before 11pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
... Weak high pressure will linger over the southeast tonight through Monday. Low pressure and abundant moisture will return to the region from the west Tuesday night through Wednesday, with dry high pressure following Thursday through Friday. A more vigorous cold front will arrive from the west next weekend and usher in a period of unsettled weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Sunday: Temperatures have warmed into the lower 50's this afternoon across the Upstate and southern Piedmont while areas across the mountains into the northern foothills remain in the low to mid 40's. Expect some areas may climb another degree or two before capping off for the day.
Latest radar imagery continues to depict an area of moisture, associated with an upper level disturbance, moving northeastward across southern AL to northern GA/eastern TN and the western Carolinas, though coverage is not as widespread given the dry low levels. Attm, heavier precipitation is falling across the northern half of GA, moving east-northeastward, and is anticipated to skirt across the southern portions of the forecast area. While rainfall amounts will be minimal, do anticipate areas mainly west of the I-77 corridor will see light rain/drizzle through tonight, with patchy areas of fog overnight, mainly along the TN/NC border. Expect any precipitation to taper off tonight, as widespread cloud cover continues. Given cloud cover, expect overnight low temperatures to be slightly warmer than we've seen over the past couple of nights, with lower 40's across the Upstate down into the mid to upper 30's across the mountains and foothills.
On Monday, expect lingering clouds throughout the day as residual moisture spreads across the area, though some guidance suggests the mid levels levels may dry out much sooner. With a subtropical ridge building into the area, expect overall quiet conditions with a warmer day in store as temperatures climb into the upper 50's/lower 60's.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 2pm EST Sunday:
Tuesday morning begins mild with generally zonal flow aloft with dry northwesterly 850mb flow. However, clouds aloft will be increasing as a well-defined shortwave exits from northern Mexico and crosses south Texas on Tuesday, picking-up Gulf moisture as it does so. This wave will bring potentially significant rainfall to the area beginning Wednesday morning, and lasting into Wednesday evening. Timing is fairly consistent in the EC and GFS models with the heaviest rain Wednesday afternoon impacting all parts of the CWA, and I'm inclined to go with fairly high POPs on Wednesday. The mountains will receive the most rainfall with 1 to 3 inches with amounts tapering southwest with an inch or so in the piedmont. Late in the event Thursday morning, when precipitation amounts have become light and scattered behind the cold front, temperatures will cool enough at higher elevations to produce some scattered light snow.
System produces a well-defined closed low/triple point over western NC Wednesday morning with a cold front trailing southwest, and a warm front extending eastward. Areas along and north of the warm front will be associated with the most rain, and this area will include much of the CWA.
Warm advection pattern south of the warm front on Tuesday will lead to warming in addition to moistening with highs perhaps 5 or fewer degrees shy of seasonal records.
Dewpoints increase to the mid-50s by Wednesday, and GFS actually predicts a smidgen of CAPE Wednesday afternoon. Have decided to keep any mention of thunder out of the forecast at this time as BUFKIT soundings show any possible convection to be very shallow, and area with potentially useful CAPE only impacts a handful of counties in northeast GA and the Upstate.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2:45 PM EST Sunday: At the start of this period the models are similar in that the lead wave of energy will be east of our forecast area (FA) Thursday morning. This will allow a flat ridge aloft to shift across the area, while surface high pressure takes up a damming configuration from Quebec Canada south into the Carolina's and northeast Georgia. The model soundings show some shallow moisture in parts of our south FA, as a result spotty light rain or drizzle will be possible.
The damming configuration should last Thursday night into part of Friday, and then break down. This is a result of the next strong spoke of energy lifting from the southwest CONUS to the western Great Lakes Friday. The flow at most levels will be in the process of backing to the southwest (slowest at the surface) during Friday. Moisture will become deeper through the column later Friday and Friday night, in the southwest flow. Therefore we should note a subtle expansion of shower activity, but still well in the chance range.
At the start of the weekend, and beyond, is where we have noted the greatest divergence (or changes) in how the models are handling the next front and associated precipitation. Today is no exception as the new European Model has shifted slower, even slower than the GFS and Canadian. However, to some degree they appear to be following sensible weather. A broad high pressure system in the western Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico, combined with a southwest flow aloft, should signal a slower moving frontal pattern. The first wind shift from the lead energy source will allow some type of wind shift to approach the FA Saturday or Sunday. The European is now super slow with its front tucked well west right through the weekend.
We will allow a plume of moisture, to overspread our area, in the deepening southwest flow aloft and ahead of the initial wind shift change. A blended approach yields some high chance and low likely POPS Saturday into Sunday. It would seem the colder air would only ooze into our area (if it even makes it this far southeast) by the end of this forecast cycle. Considerable implications where everything lines up, since we are going slower, PW's are very high for this time of year, thus how much rainfall.
We suspect there will be more adjustments needed this far out, as the models line up with consistency from run to run.