|Dew Point:||39.0°F (3.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the SW at 6.0 MPH Gusting to 12.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||43°F (6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.05" (1017.5 mb)|
Hi 61 °F
Hi 54 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 59 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light after midnight.
Sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph.
A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. South southwest wind around 7 mph.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. South southwest wind 3 to 6 mph.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.
A 30 percent chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sun Feb 19 2017
SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will move over the area through the early part of the week, bringing temperatures close to record highs. Modest rainfall will move over the area by mid week, followed by brief drying, before a frontal system arrives next weekend with rain and thunder chances.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 350 PM EST Sunday: Drier air continues to advect into the region this afternoon by way of light/moderate northerly winds. Thus, any earlier stratocu continues to erode leading to only few low clouds spread about the region. Temperatures have responded nicely with most low terrain sites topping out in the lower 70s, with 60s favored over the high terrain. Therefore, the current fcst remains on track and no sig changes were made with this update. Did tweak hourly t/td/sky to better align with recent obs/sat.
As of 1230 PM EST: Satellite imagery continues to show clouds banked up on the W side of the mtns. Seeing some stratocu development downwind of the mtns...more than expected...but not enough to mess up the high temp fcst. Temp trend was adjusted for obs, but otherwise no changes.
Rather benign springtime weather is expected over the next 24 hours as a progressive upper pattern brings a full-latitude upper ridge eastward and supports high pressure moving past to the north. The only problem is that it isn`t spring, it`s still winter, and now the trees are blooming and the birds seem confused. Sky should clear and wind should diminish with sunset. In spite of clear sky and light wind, low temps will still be on the order of ten degrees above normal. Sky should be sunny on Monday with more light wind. High temps will continue well above normal and might flirt with records, particularly at GSP.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 2pm EST Sunday: Upper ridge will be in place over the area Monday night with light and variable surface flow. Ridge and surface high move east on Tuesday with light southwesterly flow picking-up Tuesday afternoon that will gradually increase dewpoints. Airmass remains convectively stable Tuesday evening with only an outside chance of a light shower, primarily over the higher terrain. Chances for precip. improves on Wednesday as boundary layer moisture continues to improve and with upper flow becoming northwesterly with some embedded shortwave impulses. Models develop some marginal instability with CAPE to 100 j/kg Wednesday afternoon and not a lot of cap. Deep layer shear is also marginal. Thus, some widely scattered marginal convective showers will be possible late on Wednesday, with any activity rapidly dying after sunset. Temperatures remain well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday with clouds increasing with the change in upper flow pattern Tuesday evening.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday: A quasi-zonal/fairly progressive flow pattern will be in place across much of the eastern 2/3 of the conus through the period. SW low level flow will support plenty of warmth early in the period, as temps are expected to remain around 20 degrees above climo through the end of the work week. The southerly flow will also bring about increasing low level moisture, which combined with very strong insolation could yield positive surface-based buoyancy by Thu afternoon. Also by this time, global model guidance hints at warm frontal activation across the central/southern Appalachians and vicinity, as cyclogenesis commences across the southern Great Plains. Therefore, isolated-to-widely scattered convection, including thunderstorms is not out of the question Thu afternoon and evening.
Although the warm front will be long gone by Friday, additional convection is possible Fri afternoon, particularly in response to terrain effects, and chance pops will be carried in most locations by the end of the day. Model guidance is gradually coming into better agreement regarding the advance into our area of a frontal boundary associated with aforementioned deepening cyclone early in the weekend, with late Fri night/early Saturday appearing to be the most likely time for fropa in our forecast area. Likely pops will be carried across much of the area during this time. The convective potential remains the most interesting aspect of this event, and while it does not appear that the time of day will be conducive to robust buoyancy, it appears fairly likely that some degree of sbCAPE will be in place. Meanwhile, shear will likely be adequate for organized convection, although the latest guidance depicts fairly unidirectional profiles with a strong-but-not-scary low level jet. This would certainly makes sense with the better deep layer forcing passing west and north of the area, but it all honesty it`s still a bit early to get too far in the weeds with severe wx parameters.
Cooler and much drier air will push into the area for the last couple of days of the period, although temps are expected to remain a good 10 degrees above normal through the weekend.