|Dew Point:||27.9°F (-2.3°C)|
|Wind:||From the NW at 6.8 MPH Gusting to 8.9 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||22°F (-6°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.76" (1007.7 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 23
Partly SunnyHigh: 34 Low: 24
SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 30
Partly Sunny then Chance Light RainHigh: 45 Low: 36
Chance Light RainHigh: 52 Low: 38
Mostly sunny. High near 37, with temperatures falling to around 24 in the afternoon. Northwest wind 8 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Northwest wind around 12 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 44. West northwest wind 2 to 10 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.
A chance of rain between noon and 5pm, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... A dry cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast today. Thereafter, dry and cool high pressure will dominate our weather through Sunday morning. Weak southerly flow with limited moisture will return to the area Sunday and Monday as another cold front approaches from the west.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM EST Thursday: A dry cold front continues to slowly push across the forecast area this morning as temperatures remain in the 30's to lower 40's. Only made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures for this update as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track for today.
Otherwise, a clipper system will continue to track across the northern Mid-Atlantic this morning, as it drags the dry cold front across the CWFA. A stratus desk behind the front can be seen on IR imagery slowly advancing SE toward the NC mountains. Other than an isolated snow shower and/or a few flurries this morning in the Northern Mountains, it looks dry today. Gusty winds across the higher elevations should begin to weaken over the next few hours as the clipper moves east. East of the mountains should see plenty of sunshine and light winds today. Temps will rebound to near normal across the piedmont, but still below normal in the mountains. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s in the mountains, and in the 50s east.
Tonight, weak sfc high pressure builds in under NWLY flow aloft. Another clipper system will be entering the western Great Lakes. Flow at 850 mb will back to SWLY ahead of this wave, with guidance showing some RH and WAA across the NC foothills and piedmont. This may produce a stratocu deck and affect min temps. Overall, there will be some increase in clouds and temps near normal. Lows in the 20s to mid-30s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM EST Thursday: It looks like a quiet end to the week, weather-wise. A fairly strong short wave will pass on Friday, but with no moisture to work with, this feature will hardly be noticed but for cooling temps off about five degrees behind an associated sfc boundary. The flow veers a bit more WNW Friday night, but moisture looks even more meager than previous model runs, and no longer supportive of including even a slight chance of precip, so that has been pulled from the fcst. High pressure should move across the region as a flat ridge builds in from the west. Temps should rebound to slightly above normal for Saturday as a result. Meanwhile, the next system will organize over TX and lift northeast Saturday night. As it stands right now, it does not appear that moisture or forcing will arrive before daybreak Sunday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM EST Thursday: The medium range remains in a state of flux and forecast confidence is fairly low, as is typical for this time of year. The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonable agreement at the start of the period with bringing a srn stream system northeastward on Sunday, altho there are timing and strength differences. Both agree that precip chances will develop from the west, but perhaps not as quickly as previously thought. There is consensus that a lead short wave will lift out and deamplify across the TN Valley/Cumberland Plateau region. That would take the bulk of the forcing and deeper moisture west of us, only brushing past the NC mountains. The trend in the guidance is to hold off longer and the fcst moves in that direction, but still has precip chances reaching the mtns early enough in the day that temps will be cold enough for a brief period of wintry mix over the Smokies. With the trend seen in the model guidance, this is not expected to be a problem, as more than likely the precip chances will get pushed farther back while temps continue to warm because of strong warm advection that takes hold during the day. The fcst is an attempt to blend the two models with the old fcst from that point onward. Thus, we ramp up to a chance of precip Sunday night more in line with the ECMWF, and keep the chance through Monday and Monday evening. Model solutions diverge after 00Z Tuesday, with the ECMWF being dry and the GFS developing another wave that spreads precip across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. The fcst was nudged more toward the drier ECMWF while favoring the chance of precip over the srn fringe. We dry out Tuesday evening and stay dry Wednesday. Temps will be above normal the whole time with fairly high thickness, so any precip should be all liquid.