|Dew Point:||24.7°F (-4.1°C)|
|Wind:||From the East at 1.1 MPH Gusting to 4.8 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Mostly ClearLow: 31
SunnyHigh: 56 Low: 33
SunnyHigh: 59 Low: 40
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 55 Low: 40
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 48 Low: 42
Mostly clear, with a low around 31. North northwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 56. North northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Clear, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 1 to 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 59. Southeast wind 1 to 7 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
A slight chance of rain after 6pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 42. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... Dry and cool high pressure will linger over the region into Saturday. Ahead of developing low pressure, deeper moisture will return to the area on Sunday, with unsettled weather continuing into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM Friday...conditions remain quiet early this morning with clear skies and persistent NLY flow. We are still seeing some 20+ kt gusts at KAVL, however these should subside over the next few hours as the pressure gradient continues to diminish. Temps have not fallen much since the last update, and appear to be on track with the current fcst. As previously mentioned, if winds can remain light enough thru the mid morning, then the Frost Advisory should work out. The Freeze Warning looks good for the higher terrain.
Otherwise, heights will steadily increase across the region today and tonight as upper ridging builds in from the west. At the sfc, very broad Canadian high pressure will overspread the region from the NW bringing dry and stable air to the area. Winds will remain light and out of the N to NE thru the day before becoming light and vrb later tonight and into the overnight. With weaker winds anticipated for today, fire-wx concerns are diminished outside of NE Georgia where low RH is the only criteria needed for a Fire Danger Statement. As for high temps, non-mtn areas should remain a bit cooler than yesterday owing to the NLY flow. The higher terrain is fcst to be 1 to 2 categories warmer than yesterday owing to increased low-lvl thicknesses and less vigorous cold air advection.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday: Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on Saturday as sfc high pressure continues to build in from the Great Lakes region/OH Valley, with a piece of it breaking off and settling along the Carolina/VA coast Saturday afternoon as the next approaching system slowly tracks across the southern Plains. Aside from passing clouds throughout the day, overall expect Saturday to be a pleasant Spring day, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees across much of the area, though cooler in spots across the mountains. Overnight lows will trend just a few degrees below normal. While the seasonal weather would be welcome to stay longer, it seems latest guidance continues to trend towards a period of increasing clouds, slightly cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances, extending into the middle part of next week.
As the upper low to the west is progged to propagate across the southern plains and eastward across the Deep South within split flow, moisture from the GOM and isentropic lift will aid in the development and gradual expansion of rainfall throughout the day on Sunday, SW to NE across the FA. The onset of precip may be a tad early in the going forecast per the latest trends of the notable disagreement both temporally and spatially in regards to the system, but overall suggestion of precip beginning on Sunday stands. The aforementioned sfc high pressure is expected to move offshore and wedge back in across the Carolinas, but with latest trends, anticipate cooler temperatures to hold off until Monday, as for now have kept with high temperatures on Sunday to be a bit cooler than that on Saturday as cloud cover increases. Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday morning will range in the mid to upper 40s/low 50s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, and cooler across the mountains.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 AM EDT Friday: The medium range forecast begins Monday morning where guidance continues to place a sfc high near New England wedging back in across the Carolinas, while to the SW of the FA, a 500 mb low is progged to be pushing across MS/AL as plenty of moisture continues to stream in across the FA. This along with the aid of isentropic lift, do anticipate rain to already be falling across most of the area at the start of the medium range forecast period, likely lingering through midweek. This with high temperatures expected to only reach into the mid to upper 50s/around 60 degrees on Monday (into the 40s across the mountains) - it'll be a dreary start to the work week to say the least.
As the system slowly propagates into TN/GA and the Carolinas throughout the day on Monday, the suggestion of a secondary low developing off the FL/GA/SC coast Monday night by some of the guidance continues. Details from latest guidance become a bit foggy through the end of the medium range, but overall, anticipate this system will linger across the Carolinas Tuesday into early Wednesday morning as another upper low is projected to sweep across the Upper Midwest and combine with the exiting system - allowing for both systems to join within the main upper trough across the eastern US. While previous guidance suggested the potential for some thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon, it seems latest guidance keeps the best instability well south and east of the FA, thus have kept with only rain (showers) attm. As the aforementioned next system approaches, guidance remains in disagreement in regards to the amount of moisture and forcing in place as flow becomes northwest. Thus, for now have kept with the trend of precipitation tapering off across the area on Thursday. Will mention, am expecting higher QPF at the beginning of the week, with a downward trend through into Thursday. Temperatures will begin to rebound on Wednesday as the wedge breaks down, with temperatures nearing normal towards the end of the week.