|Dew Point:||48.0°F (8.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSW at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 9.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.87" (1011.4 mb)|
Hi 53 °F
Hi 57 °F
Hi 68 °F
Hi 72 °F
Hi 68 °F
Showers. Patchy fog. High near 53. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers. Patchy fog. Low around 47. North northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind around 7 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly sunny, with a high near 68. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
A chance of showers between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
along the southern I85 corridor, FFG values also remain high. Thus, although an isolated Flash Flood threat will exist across these areas, the spatial extent of the threat doesn`t warrant watch coverage. Otherwise, tweak pops/t/td through the near term and left the remainder of the fcst as it was for this update.
Previous Discussion: an upper closed low will continue to slowly drift SE from the Mid-South to near Columbus, GA by 12z Monday. This slow drift will place the CWFA within a region of very strong deep-layer Q-vector convergence, especially tonight. At the surface, an area of low pressure will stall over northern GA, while a backdoor cold front clears our area to the south keeping a hybrid wedge locked in across the entire CWFA. Persistent low level upglide atop the wedge should bring rounds of showers thru the day. The CAMs seem to agree on perhaps a couple "rounds" of categorical PoPs, one this morning, then another this evening. Total QPF amounts today thru tonight will range from generally 1.5 to 3", highest across the SELY upslope areas of the Blue Ridge and adjacent foothills. So the Flood Watch looks good for the NC zones. As for severe potential, it really does look like the wedge front will make little progress north as the low is slow to approach from the west, and ongoing rain keeps it reinforced. I keep a mention of slight CHC to CHC for thunder across the I-85 corridor and south/east, due to potential elevated convection. There is still a marginal risk in the Day One Convective Outlook for possible hail and wind, but the CAMs keep the strongest convection south and east of the CWFA. Temps will be nearly steady across most of the area, unless the wedge front does nudge back into the southern tier of counties, where temps may bump back up into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight drop slightly into the 40s in the mountains and lower to mid 50s elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Sunday: The heavy rain potential continues Monday as our area will still be in the southerly diffluent flow/deformation zone around the upper low moving east from west central GA to the SC/GA coast. Upper divergence follows a similar pattern. Strong low level easterly flow remains over the area as the low level low pressure areas follow a similar pattern as well. In fact, the low level easterly flow is up to 3 standard deviations above normal. This will create strong isentropic lift over the cold dome from the damming that remains in place. The moist air mass remains in place as well with PW values 1 to 2 SD above normal. The heaviest rain will likely fall across the NC Foothills and Piedmont, but could shift south into the Eastern Upstate. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall in these areas. Therefore, have added Union County NC to the Flood Watch to cover the potential. Moderate to heavy rain could linger Monday evening, but precip tapers off from SW to NE overnight. Highs will increase a little but remain around 10 degrees below normal. Lows will be up to 5 degrees above normal.
Precip continues tapering off from SW to NE Tuesday ending during the afternoon. With precip ending and sunshine gradually returning, highs will be near normal. Dry forecast continues Tuesday night with lows around 5 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Sunday: Short wave ridge over the area Wednesday moves east as a series of short waves move by to our north and west Thursday and Friday. A stronger ridge develops over the SE CONUS Saturday. Dry remains over the area Wednesday with temps above normal. Moisture returns ahead of a weak cold front Thursday and Friday. This will lead to diurnal convection each day favoring the mountains. Temps remain above normal. Southerly flow around the ridge surface and aloft will keep some moisture across the mountains with diurnal convection once again. Temps remain above normal as well.