|Dew Point:||66.0°F (18.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the ENE at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 7.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.02" (1016.5 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 84 Low: 63
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 82 Low: 64
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 79 Low: 63
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 77 Low: 62
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 77 Low: 63
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northwest wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then patchy fog. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. North wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northwest wind 0 to 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
... A weak area of high pressure will be across the area through the weekend into next week. Moisture will increase through the first half of next week, as a Bermuda high strengthens over the western Atlantic Ocean.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 pm: Strong insolation, improved low-to-mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints that are a couple of degrees higher than in recent days are combining to yield sbCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range across much of the forecast area this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection has been firing within this air mass across the favored high terrain areas for the past 1-2 hours. Robust dCAPE (AOA 1000 J/kg) indicates cells should output some robust outflow, with isolated microbursts possible with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall to the tune of up to 2" in an hour has also occurred, mainly due to cells anchoring along terrain features. However, mean cloud-bearing winds of around 10 kts suggests these types of quasi-stationary or very slow moving cells should be relegated to said terrain features. Convection will continue to gradually increase in coverage over the next few hours, with at least isolated activity developing/spreading out into the Piedmont along outflow boundaries. Convection should begin steadily diminishing by early evening, and dissipate for the most part by late evening. Min temps will remain a couple of degrees above climo.
Not much change in the air mass or overall pattern is expected on Sunday, with weak W/SW flow aloft and a nebulous surface pattern, with the old frontal boundary focusing convection closer to the coast. Mid-level lapse rates will remain respectable, perhaps even improve a bit, and strong insolation and seasonable dewpoints will yield another round of moderate-to-strong instability. Deep convection should again fire across the usual high terrain areas during early afternoon, and 30-50 pops are carried across much of the mtns. At least isolated outflow-driven convection will waft into the Piedmont again by late afternoon, warranting 20-40 pops there. Max temps will again by a few degrees above normal.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Mid level heights will start out in a westerly flow pattern Sunday night and Monday. By Tuesday, there will be mid level ridging centered across the southern plains and over the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda. A weakness between the two ridge centers will exist across the southeastern states allowing for a more active convective pattern to develop starting on Tuesday.
High temperatures will be in the lower 90s in the Piedmont and mid to upper 80s in the mountain valleys on Monday. However, with increased moisture and convection, highs will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: The medium range still looks fairly unsettled, as a weakness in the upper level ridge lingers over the region thru midweek. High moisture content as indicated by precipitable water values approaching 2 inches by late week suggest that some locally heavy rain will be possible by late next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below climo due to increased cloud cover and rainfall potential.