|Dew Point:||64.0°F (17.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.00" (1015.8 mb)|
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 62
Patchy Fog then SunnyHigh: 80 Low: 63
SunnyHigh: 81 Low: 64
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 80 Low: 65
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 79 Low: 65
Patchy fog before 9am, then patchy fog and a slight chance of rain showers between 9am and 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 62. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Patchy fog before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 1 to 5 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West northwest wind around 3 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 81. East southeast wind around 5 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
A chance of rain showers between 7am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
... Moist and unsettled weather will persist across the forecast area through the tonight. Some drying is favored over the weekend, with a return to moist and active weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heights will fall across the region through the near term, as a rather potent short wave trough digs from the Corn Belt toward the Ohio Valley through tonight. Associated frontal zone will move into the forecast area by this afternoon, providing the main focus for convective development later today. In the interim, a remnant pre- frontal convective band continues to decay over East TN this morning. Based upon radar trends, only slight/low chance pops appear warranted over the mtns this morning.
In terms of redevelopment this afternoon, the main point of contention is what impact morning debris clouds will have on afternoon destabilization. In general, guidance depicts moderate levels of sbCAPE this afternoon (around 2000 J/kg), which should be sufficient to initiate at least scattered convection along the front this afternoon, as depicted by a consensus of guidance sources in the vicinity of the Blue Ridge between 18-21Z. Pops will be advertised in the 30-50 percent range across much of the area, with the highest pops favoring western NC, where better upper support is forecast. Shear remains weak (deep layer shear of 15-20 kts; 0-3km shear of around 10 kts), so convective organization does not appear likely and any severe convective potential should be limited to the pulse variety.
Convection will diminish through the evening as drier/more stable air filters into the region in the wake of the front. After another day of above-normal maxes, the slightly drier air should allow tonight's mins to drip closer to climo.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday: A strong s/w trof will cross the ern CONUS thru the period. The best energy will remain well to the north of the FA however as a sub/trop high noses into the SE region. Soundings show a good amount of deep subs developing Sat persisting thru the day Sun as the sub/trop ridge couples with a Canadian sfc high. Low level moisture and flow will be meager...yet enuf for the development of few/sct Cu. It will be hard to get much going convec-wise each afternoon with overall neg forcing and mlvl warming off-setting good llvl LRs. There may be some areas that break the cap and a few deeper -shra or tstms could be locally possible. Yet...think the best chance for -shra/tstms will be across the nrn mtns due to mtn top convg near the passing h5 trof axis...and perhaps across the far srn zones in proximity of a lingering broad sfc trof. A subtle drying trend was made to the PoP grids mainly on Sat. Max/min temps will be able to reach a cat or so above normal in this environ.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Friday: Not too many changes were made to the going fcst. Mon still looks to be firmly under the control of a strong sub/trop ridge with little flow thru the layer. This will create strong sub and hold a 1021 mb sfc high off the Carolina coast. Meanwhile...a sfc bndry will remain trapped to the south of the fcst area. The models continue to show a slow northward progression with the moist llvl convg zone and in fact fire up some convec across the Midlands and cent GA arnd 16z. Soundings over the Upstate however show little in the way of convec potential and mainly few/sct Cu leading up to the solar eclipse. There could be some moist adv into the area from any eventual storms to the south...but the flow is so weak that it would likely take until the later afternoon for increased mid/high level clouds to materialize over the FA. The depth and coverage of these advective clouds is still fairly uncertain attm and a lot will depend on the strength and placement of the Atl ridge by Mon morning. Suffice to say...the fcst will remain on the optimistic side as far as good viewing conds for the mid day eclipse.
Otherwise...the deeper afternoon convec will remain mostly limited across NC mtns Mon afternoon and again on Tue with some isol non/mtn storms developing in strong thermals. A little better non/mtn coverage may be had Tue/Wed afternoon as a pre/frontal trof works in and stalls just east of the escarpment. Late Wed into Thu could be rather active as deep layered shear increases ahead of a frontal zone and the pre/frontal airmass becomes quite unstable. Continued warm and muggy conds will continue thru the period with perhaps some lower theta/e air mixing in by Thu afternoon/evening.