|Dew Point:||66.0°F (18.9°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.92" (1013.1 mb)|
Lo 65 °F
Lo 59 °F
Lo 56 °F
Lo 54 °F
Lo 53 °F
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. West wind around 7 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind around 7 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind around 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
into early Saturday morning. Light showers will linger Saturday morning as the front slowly crosses the area, and thunderstorms may redevelop just ahead of the cold front over the piedmont. Unseasonably cool and dry conditions will spread over the forecast area in the wake of the front and persist through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 10:30pm EDT Friday: Storms so far this evening have demonstrated brief heavy rain rates and some strong wind gusts. CAPE will continue to decline diurnally, and deep layer shear will also decline as tropical wave moves by.
Tropical wave now embedded in upper synoptic flow which represents the remnants of Cindy is moving along a frontal boundary and passing through Kentucky and will continue eastward, exiting the CONUS by Saturday morning as the front moves southeastward across the Appalachians and into the piedmont. Combination of tropical wave and front will bring showers to the area tonight and Saturday. There is some moisture reduction behind the front, but dewpoints do not really begin to decline until Saturday evening. Sufficient moisture will remain such that with diurnal warming Saturday afternoon, MLCAPE values will still reach over 1000 j/kg. Moisture declines significantly Saturday evening as northwesterly surface flow over the mountains develops and showers will be ending from northwest to southeast Saturday evening.
Strong 850mb flow around Cindy remnant of around 30kts gradually weakens overnight as the wave moves through with gusty surface winds continuing until early Saturday morning, especially at higher elevations.
Latest high-res guidance brings an area of stronger storms through the area from now through 8z with a period of relatively light and widely scattered showers Saturday morning, followed by the next round of showers and storms Saturday afternoon. Severity of any storms on Saturday will be mitigated by much weaker wind shear, but showers will be prodigious rain producers as PWAT values remain over 2 inches.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday: Will plan on basing the Saturday evening pop timing by extrapolating the NAMNest sfc refl which is progging scattered deep convection translating acrs the piedmont 21-02z. Sfc front should then translate to the coastal plain before sunrise Sunday. Broad upper troughing builds into the eastern conus starting on Sunday with an influx of drier continental airmass expected atop the cwfa. Sunday afternoon sfc dwpts should be around 10 deg F lower than Saturday`s values. Upper trough continues to build toward the eastern seaboard on Monday while a persistent llvl northerly flow allows for further drying. Sfc dwpts should fall into the 50s, impressive values for late June.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday: Not much change from the previous fcst. The op guidance remains in general good agreement with the synoptic pattern which features a strong upstream ridge enforcing good subsidence across the FA. There is a strong h5 s/w depicted to cross the area on Tue...but with nil moisture to work with...will anticipate only mid/high level clouds with this feature. The atmos remains rather stable thru most of the period as a Canadian high slowly crosses overhead. There could be some limited mtn-top convg shra/tstms developing late Thu however confidence is too low attm to include in the fcst grids. The best chance for precip will be Fri thru the period when a cold front approaches from the west and by that time the Bermuda high will be back in it/s normal config allowing sw/ly moist adv and seasonal sfc heating. Shower and tstm activity will be limited mainly to the higher terrain aided by mech lift. Max/min temps will begin the period a couple cats below normal with a gradual increase to near normal levels by the weekend.