Wolf Laurel / Wolf Ridge / Mars Hill

Wolf Laurel, NC

Currently

Temperature 20.64°F
Feels Like 11.43°F
Humidity 80%
Pressure 1022mb
Wind 7.47mph from the NW
Broken clouds 21°F Broken clouds
Overnight Mostly Cloudy
Low: 43°F
Tuesday Sunny
High: 43°F Low: 31°F
Wednesday Sunny
High: 49°F Low: 30°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 52°F Low: 37°F
Friday Chance Rain Showers
High: 41°F Low: 36°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Drier and cooler conditions continue today as Canadian high pressure moves over the Southeast. Warmer temperatures return Wednesday into Thursday with continued dry weather. A low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures and rain back on Friday, with rain chances potentially lingering into early Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday: Made some minor tweaks to cloud cover overnight based on the latest nighttime microphysics satellite loops. Also made some tweaks to winds and gusts based on the latest OBS. Widespread wind gusts are still being reported as CAA increases within a tight pressure gradient across the NC mountains this morning. Winds should starting decreasing over the next hour or so as the pressure gradient starts to relax.

Otherwise...an upper trough will track over the Carolinas early this morning leading to low moisture lifting across the TN/NC mountain spine leading to continued to cloud cover. Low-level CAA will continue filtering into the region this morning, allowing temps to drop below freezing area-wide. The growing season has started across the southern zones where a Freeze Warning remains in effect through 10 AM. Another dry day is on tap today, with RH values likely dropping to 25 percent or less across the region. Winds and gusts wont be as strong as yesterday, so a Fire Danger Statement may only be needed for NE GA depending on how land managers feel about fuel moisture levels. This concern will be coordinated later on during the midnight shift. High temps will be held right around or a little below normal Tue.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday: Surface high sets up shop over the Gulf Coast, while broad cyclonic flow aloft continues to church over the eastern CONUS Tuesday night. Cooler temperatures aloft and clear skies should allow temperatures to cool off, but radiational cooling conditions will be limited as the boundary layer will struggle to fully decouple before daybreak Wednesday as surface winds remain elevated into the overnight period (5-10 mph). As a result, overnight lows on Tuesday should be at or slightly below normal for most locations. Dewpoint depressions will be too wide to go along with light winds to forecast frost across the area, especially in the zones that are officially in the growing season. The airmass will modify very nicely on Wednesday as heights recover while coinciding with southwesterly WAA and a west-northwesterly downslope component (850 mb). Lots of sunshine is expected and should lead to temperatures recovering ~10 degrees compared to highs on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon highs are expected to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Low RH values will be in store Wednesday afternoon with a well-mixed boundary layer, but winds should remain light enough to help alleviate fire weather concerns for most locations. Deterministic models continue to depict a backdoor cold front dropping through the region late Wednesday evening as a shortwave trough slips through the northeastern CONUS. The front will be severely moisture starved, so precip will be hard to come by as the parent low pushes from Ontario/Quebec into Atlantic Canada by Thursday and the better forcing/moisture remains well north of the CFWA. Increasing clouds and WAA will lead to overnight lows Wednesday to be near-normal.

Conditions begin to take a turn on Thursday as an upper low gets its act together over the Desert Southwest Tuesday night and transitions across the Southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley by the end of the period. Diffluent flow starts to filter in as a stout baroclinic zone really activates over the west/central Gulf Coast. At the same time, a strong surface high will settle across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. These components come together at the beginning of the extended period, but in the meantime, Thursday should remain dry with extensive cloud cover and continued WAA. Afternoon highs are forecasted to be a few degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday: The aforementioned upper low from the short-term will open up into a shortwave as it encroaches the region Thursday night into Friday. At the same time, the surface high over the Great Lakes region will move into the northeastern CONUS, setting up the stage for a CAD event as the area of high pressure noses into the region. Good moist upglide and DPVA will overrun the area as the onset of precip begins to spread from the southwest to the northeast overnight Thursday. An expansive precip shield will keep rain over the area through much of the day Friday as a coastal low begins to deepen over the eastern Gulf. 30-40 kt south-southeasterly LLJ will help to enhance rain rates, while locking in the cold, stable dome across much of the CFWA. Temperatures throughout the vertical profile indicates that the p-type will remain all liquid outside of the highest peaks in the northern mountains of North Carolina. Convective rainfall rates shouldn't be an issue either as this system lacks elevated instability. Guidance are in good consensus with the overall synoptic pattern, but differ in QPF amounts and timing from start to end. Seems like a good bet that most of the precip will occur Friday into Friday night, but some models keep precip going into Saturday morning, which slightly lowers confidence. Either way, not looking at a hydro threat with this event, just a cold and dreary day as temperatures Friday afternoon will likely struggle to get out of the 40s to low 50s over most locations.

The alluded coastal low is expected to move north, up the East Coast Saturday into Sunday. In this case, near surface divergence and a downslope component on the backside would allow for the CAD to erode by the second half of the upcoming weekend. Surface high quickly dives into the northeastern CONUS by Sunday as thicknesses begin to recover. High pressure will remain in control through the end of the forecast period, but the model guidance are showing a digging upper tough over the western CONUS with an active southern stream jet by the end of the forecast period. All signs point to an unsettled weather pattern, but should hold off until after D7 based on current trends. Temperatures will modify Sunday and beyond as the CAD erodes and the sensible weather remains dry for consecutive days as values during the rest of the extended will run a few degrees above normal with the potential to be a little higher.