|Dew Point:||42.8°F (6.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.50" (1032.7 mb)|
Light Rain LikelyLow: 42
Light Rain Likely then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 51 Low: 47
Chance Light Rain then Mostly SunnyHigh: 52 Low: 27
SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 29
Mostly SunnyHigh: 48 Low: 34
Rain likely and drizzle likely and areas of fog. Cloudy, with a low around 42. South southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain likely and drizzle likely and patchy fog before noon, then a chance of rain showers and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a high near 51. South wind 12 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain and patchy fog before 7pm, then rain showers and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 47. South southwest wind 16 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 9am, then a chance of rain between 9am and 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. West wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 42.
Mostly clear, with a low around 29.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
A slight chance of rain after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
... The wet pattern will continue through Saturday night until a robust cold front finally moves through the region on Sunday morning. The early part of next week should be dominated by dry high pressure. A cold front may move through the region from the northwest on Wednesday, but moisture with this front remains highly uncertain.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1000 PM Update...Sfc obs have changed little over the past few hrs except for improving vsbys as the widespread precip has lifted north. Will leave high-end PoPs for showers moving in from the south and overall continued moist isent lift atop the wedge thru the overnight.
630 PM Update...PoPs were lowered a little across the srn zones and -dz was introduced to the wx grids. Other than that...no sigfnt changes were made as the atmos remains in a rather steady state moist wedge pattern.
As of 300 PM: With one sfc high well offshore, and another sfc high slowly shifting from the Upper Midwest into the OH Valley and expanding eastward towards the coast, conditions have been quite dreary across the FA today as a stationary front to the south, CAD set-up across the western Carolinas, and plenty of moisture in place has allowed for expansive cloud cover with periods of showers and below normal temperatures. For tonight through into Saturday afternoon, am not expecting much change in conditions. As the sfc high to the north slowly churns eastward, expect the infiltration of moisture to continue allowing for isolated to scattered showers, with CAD digging southward across the FA, all as developing sfc low to the west along the stationary front allows for the boundary to slowly lift northward as a warm front. With high temperatures capping off around 50 degrees within the wedge this afternoon, into the mid 50s across portions of the southern mountains and northeast GA/southwestern Upstate, overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s across the entire FA. On Saturday, expect below normal temperature to continue, with low to mid 40s across most of the FA, with the exception of areas along the TN border outside of the wedge, warming into the mid 50s.
With additional rainfall from scattered showers today, area rivers and small streams are fluctuating, with some currently in flood, or near flood, resulting in an array of flood products attm. The Flood Watch currently in effect will continue through 7 PM tonight attm, as area gauges are indicating some area rivers and small streams are beginning to recede. With additional rainfall amounts of around a quarter of an inch expected overnight into Saturday, do not anticipate any new flooding concerns attm, but will continue to monitor this evolving event.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 224 PM EST Friday: The passage of a cold front is our main concern for the rest of the forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate the scouring of our cold air damming wedge Saturday night, but this seems doubtful, at least from the standpoint of how it would affect our ability to destabilize out ahead of the approaching strong cold front. At this time of year, it can be difficult to scour a wedge late at night unless there is a sfc low moving past to the west. We will probably maintain the low level isentropic lift and the warm advection at 850 mb right up until the time the front arrives. Although the wedge boundary will be trying to lift northward, there is considerable doubt it will make it north of roughly I-85. Even if the wind comes around to something with a southerly component, it appears that our chances of seeing any sort of sfc-based instability is extremely low. For example, the latest SREF has a less than 2% chance of sb-CAPE reaching 500 J/kg. Will not rule out some elevated thunderstorms over northeast GA and Upstate SC, but am not planning on any meaningful severe storm chances. Precip prob will be high thru frontal passage, which should occur on Sunday morning. Precip chances end over the east by 18Z Sunday, and we should clear out and see some sun for the balance of the afternoon. Temps will depend on the frontal passage and how quickly we clear out, perhaps falling in the afternoon near the TN border as cold advection arrives, but probably topping out 15-25 degrees warmer than Saturday east of the Blue Ridge. The rest of the fcst should be dry. A broad upper trof axis moves past Sunday night and high pressure builds in from the NW. The sfc high is expected to move past to our north on Monday and Monday night, then off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Temps will cool off back toward normal as the continental air mass moves into the region.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 144 PM EST Friday: Not a lot of certainty with the forecast from mid-week onward, as there's not much of any signal in the guidance. The models indicate that we should be under a flat, non-descript mid/upper flow. The ECMWF has the axis of a very broad upper trof closer to the east coast and more of a WNW flow, and is consequently drier than the GFS. That model is flatter and has more in the way of periodic weak mid/upper forcing. Both suggest the passage of a weak front Wed/Wed nite, but with little precip. The fcst will keep low-end precip chances Wed-Thu with temps slightly above normal and warm enough for just light rain. Fcst confidence plummets by the end of the week as run-to-run consistency is poor and consensus is almost non-existent. We carry a chance of precip based solely on the operational GFS from Thursday night onward, with near to below normal temps. Expect this part of the fcst to change, perhaps by a great deal.