|Dew Point:||46.9°F (8.3°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 3.8 MPH Gusting to 5.8 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.32" (1026.6 mb)|
Mostly SunnyHigh: 68 Low: 53
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 60 Low: 35
Rain And Snow Showers LikelyHigh: 42 Low: 31
Mostly SunnyHigh: 59 Low: 47
Mostly SunnyHigh: 69 Low: 51
Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Rain showers likely after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 60. South wind 12 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 11pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
... An approaching strong cold front from the west will bring the return of showers and thunderstorms to the area beginning later today, continuing into Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. Cooler temperatures arrive behind the front for the weekend, with lingering northwest flow moisture across the mountains on Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM: Seeing stratocu develop more aggressively than previously fcst. This update mainly deals with the effects thereof, though the effects are expected to be fairly short-lived as the cu should mix out by around noon. Slowed warming underneath. With near-sfc moisture running higher than originally thought, raised PoPs slightly along the Escarpment this afternoon as well.
With sfc high pressure offshore and the Southeast soon finds itself well situated in the warm sector, the dry weather pattern comes to an end today, as a very dynamic weather system approaches from the west. Amplified upper ridging over the eastern CONUS is progged to shift offshore through today and tonight as upper troughing over the central US combines with a southern stream closed low and deepens, becoming elongated through to the GOM. At the sfc, a strong cold front will essentially connect from a low pressure system located over the Great Lakes down to a sfc low pressure system centered over northeastern TX this morning. Per latest guidance, expect these features to propagate eastward through today and tonight, as plenty of deep moisture infiltrates into northeast GA and the western Carolinas ahead of this system with SW flow well in place. As a result, expect increasing cloud cover today, with low to mid clouds developing more rapidly towards the evening hours. Temperatures will climb to well above normal this afternoon, much like yesterday, in the upper 70s across most of the area - slightly cooler across the mountains. While areas along and south of the I-85 corridor to the Charlotte-Metro area and northward along the I-77 corridor are expected to remain dry through this evening, rain chances may begin as early as this afternoon along the Blue Ridge Escarpment with the aid of upslope forcing and piece of upper level energy as noted by latest guidance. Into the overnight hours, do expect the gradual expansion of rain chances eastward across the FA, with a few rumbles of thunder possible across the southwestern portions of the FA towards daybreak on Friday. With the sfc low pressure/cold front right on our doorstep at the end of the near term forecast period, expect overnight low temperatures to be above normal as well - in the low to mid 60s, cooler into the 50s across the mountains.
Aside from the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms, the other story later today and into tonight will be the increasing southerly winds, especially along the TN border and at the higher elevations. Tonight and into the overnight hours, latest guidance suggests sustained winds could reach up to 25 to 30 mph right along the TN border, to 20 to 25 mph eastward across the higher elevations, with gusts nearing 40 to 45 mph and 30 to 40 mph, respectively. With this package have not raised any wind hazards, but a wind advisory may be needed later today given new guidance.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 am Thursday: Everyone should know the drill by now re: tomorrow's significant weather and especially the severe convective potential: a full latitude upper trough/developing closed upper low impacting the Southeast, with the trough axis taking on an increasingly negative tilt as it approaches the coastal states. Convective band ahead of strongly forced cold front will by pushing through the CWA at the start of the period, with categorical showers and at least scattered thunderstorm coverage overtaking the entire forecast area by late morning. Very strong 50-60 kt low level jet will be translating across the area by this time, with backed surface flow anticipated in response to deepening cyclone lifting west of the Appalachians. This will contribute to 0-1 km shear of around 40 kts. Recent CSTAR research has shown that this parameter is an important discriminator between significant severe and null severe events within low CAPE environments, with 40 kts being a statistically significant threshold. Meanwhile, the GFS and NAM rapidly destabilize the air mass over along the I-77 corridor (to around 1000 J/kg of sbCAPE) from late morning into early afternoon. It's difficult to say if this is guidance simply being too bullish with low level moisture flux, or if these guidance sources are actually on to something. However, another finding of recent CSTAR research was that the atmosphere often destabilizes rapidly from little-to-no CAPE to significant levels within the 0-3 hour period prior to the arrival of forcing during significant low CAPE severe events. Just something to mull over...SPC has pulled the Enhanced Risk westward to just east of I-77, and this seems more than reasonable based upon the latest guidance.
Otherwise, strong/deep meridionally-oriented forcing should contribute to establishment of a low-topped QLCS capable of producing locally damaging winds and brief tornadoes within or very close to the forecast area during by late morning, which will then likely progress east of the area by mid-afternoon-ish. To the west of this, another narrow band of showers may develop along the immediate front and move across the area during mid/late afternoon, but it's not at all clear how much (if any) buoyancy will be left in the environment by then, and none of the convection-allowing models are particularly excited about this second round.
As the cold core upper low passes just west of the Appalachians late Friday into Saturday, and associated strong cold front blasts through the forecast area during the late afternoon and evening, snow level will begin falling across region, likely reaching the high peaks and ridge tops of western NC by late Fri evening. Deformation zone moisture wrapping around the mid-level circulation could impact the high terrain Fri night into early Saturday, with some very light accums possible above 4000' by sunrise, especially across the Smokies and Balsams (where the cold air will arrive first). If anything, high elevation snowfall chances increase during Saturday, at which time forcing associated with short waves rotating around the upper low and deformation zone moisture will be at a nadir across the southern Appalachians. Still, accums will most likely be confined to elevations above 4000', with anything more than a dusting limited to >5500-ish feet (1-4" is the current forecast for these areas). Precip chances finally begin to taper off late Saturday into early Sunday across the area. Unseasonably cool temperatures Sunday morning could yield a concern for patchy frost in sheltered mountain valleys, and even in portions of the foothills.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 4 am Thursday: Temps rebound quickly and dry weather returns early in the medium range, as deep trough/upper low expedite off the East Coast by Monday. In fact, Sunday's maxes will be right around normal, while maxes are expected to return to the upper 70s/lower 80s across much of the area by Monday, and remain there through the end of the period. It currently appears that the only chance for precip during the medium range will exist toward the end of the period, when a developing SE flow may provide enough mechanical lift and Atlantic humidity to allow for isolated convection to develop across the high terrain Tue and Wed afternoons.