|Dew Point:||27.0°F (-2.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.25" (1024.3 mb)|
Light RainHigh: 40 Low: 39
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 53 Low: 21
SunnyHigh: 32 Low: 18
Mostly SunnyHigh: 34 Low: 21
Cloudy, with a low around 34. Southeast wind around 8 mph.
Rain after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Southeast wind around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy. Low around 39, with temperatures rising to around 48 overnight. South wind 10 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Southwest wind 17 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 53 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 25 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 52 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny, with a high near 32.
Mostly clear, with a low around 18.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
A slight chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
... Dry weather under high pressure will continue until rain returns with weekend low pressure. Strong winds are also expected on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 905pm update...overnight forecast still on track. After viewing the 00z soundings and subsequent hires model runs, have slowed down the onset of precip until well after dawn.
Previous discussion... Rain probabilities should ramp up Saturday morning as the boundary approaches and enters the region. Garrett County appears to be the location where cold air is most likely to get trapped and allow for freezing rain before temperatures warm up in the morning. While there are a couple hours of freezing rain in the forecast for Garrett County, confidence was not high enough for an icing scenario to issue an advisory at this time. Any advisory would likely be for a relatively short time period, and could expand elsewhere in the ridges. By sunset Saturday rain should have moved into all locations except north of the Interstate 80 corridor. Daytime highs will be a couple degrees above normal.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface low pressure will track from northern Missouri Saturday night over Michigan and into Ontario by Sunday night. Widespread rain will continue Saturday night and begin to ease up in coverage Sunday, continuing as snow showers north and east of Pittsburgh Sunday night into Monday. Storm total liquid will be up to an inch south of the Mason Dixon line, which could result in localized flooding along creeks and streams that are already elevated from the wet pattern over the last few weeks.
However, the bigger impact from the storm will be the winds behind the cold front that passes Sunday morning. A high wind watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area Sunday morning through Monday morning, with the highest winds expected during the day on Sunday as the result of a tight pressure gradient. Wind gusts should easily reach 45 mph, advisory criteria, while there is still some uncertainty as to whether 58 mph wind gusts will be reached, which is warning criteria.
The diurnal temperature trend will be a bit uncharacteristic due to the timing of the low pressure system, with temperatures rising Saturday night and daily high temperatures likely occurring around sunrise Sunday, then falling during the day and continuing to fall during the night. Monday will be back to cold temperatures, with highs only reaching the upper 20s and 30s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... There is still a bit of uncertainty with the models and when precipitation could occur during the extended forecast. At this point, have decided to stick close to the SuperBlend which brings a front through the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise there is only a minimal chance for precipitation. Temperatures will be below normal through the period.