|Dew Point:||35°F (2°C)|
|Wind Chill:||NA°F (NA°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.20 in (1023 mb)|
RainHigh: 37 Low: 34
Chance Rain then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 43 Low: 24
Mostly SunnyHigh: 38 Low: 26
Sleet Likely then Light RainHigh: 36 Low: 34
Light Rain Likely then Partly SunnyHigh: 45 Low: 32
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. South wind around 1 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind 1 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
A chance of rain and patchy fog before 11am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 43. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. North wind around 8 mph.
A slight chance of sleet between 7pm and 8pm, then a chance of freezing rain and a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Freezing rain likely before 8am, then sleet likely between 8am and 10am, then freezing rain likely between 10am and 11am, then rain and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain likely before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... Low pressure over the Gulf Coast region this morning will track northeast reaching the New England coast by late Tuesday. Meanwhile a cold front over the central United States will move east today and offshore by early Wednesday. Low pressure will develop along the front over the southeast United States by Thursday and will track through the Mid Atlantic region on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1232 PM EST Monday...
The wedge of cooler air remains over the area and has strengthens some due to adiabatic (easterly upslope) and diabatic (evaporative) cooling processes. Unfortunately, temperatures will not make it out of the 40s with some mountain valleys remaining in the 30s.
The big ticket item for today will be how much rain the area will see into tonight. With warm moisture air advecting over the wedge, strong isentropic lift and channel vorticity will result in around an inch of rain along and south of the VA/NC border this afternoon. Along the highway 460 corridor, a half to three- quarters /0.50-0.75/ of an inches is expected. A range of a quarter to a half /0.25-0.50/ of an inch is possible across the Greenbrier Valley to the Alleghany Highlands.
The wedge may still be in play this evening and will erode once a surface low develops over the coastal piedmont of North Carolina and tracks to the Virginia coast overnight. PWATS increase to 2-3 standard deviations above normal this evening as the original disturbance brings Gulf moisture, then adds a strong fetch from the Atlantic. Heavy rain potential remains over the northwest North Carolina and Southside Virginia this evening with another inch of rain is possible. Amounts taper overnight heading west to a half to three-quarters /0.50-0.75/ of an inches towards the Blue Ridge and a quarter to a half /0.25-0.50/ of an inch across the Bluefield area and southeastern West Virginia. The moderate to heavy rain will move east of the area through the early morning hours as the low quickly races northeast of the area. If 2-3 inches or more of rain falls over the area, areal flooding of creeks and streams is possible, river flooding is likely to follow within 12-24 hours along the Dan River, maybe the Roanoke River. Rainfall rates and amounts will determine if areal flood warnings are warranted this evening. The main area of concern will be along the VA-NC border.
The surface low tracks off the Delmarva Coast Tuesday morning. A weak cold front will then slide across the region, bring additional light rain showers to the area. Rain will taper off from west to east in the afternoon as the front moves to the coast. Overcast skies will likely remain through the day with high temperatures recovering into the mid to upper 40s across the mountains and lower 50s east.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 AM EST Monday...
On Tuesday morning, surface low will be located north of our area and lifting northeast along the East coast. A weak cold front will slide across the region, stalling along the Carolina coast Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure will form in the Carolinas and will deepen as it tracks along the Northeast coast. The best chance for rain will occur Tuesday morning, then drier air filters in our region as low pressure exits to the northeast. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from around 40 degrees in the northwest mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont. There may be a few snow showers or flurries in the northwest mountains Tuesday night but forecast soundings indicated colder and drier air pushing in. Kept some light pops in the west during Tuesday evening then taper off Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will vary from the upper teens in the mountains to the lower 30s in the piedmont. High pressure to our north in the Great lakes will build down into our area Wednesday. This high center will move quickly to the northeast by Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday will generally be the mid 30s in the northwest mountains to the mid 40s in the piedmont.
A frontal boundary will wedge south into North Carolina Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The forecast challenge is that a closed low moving over the Tennessee Valley throws moisture over this cold wedge. Through adiabatic (upslope) and diabatic (evaporative cooling) processes, a layer of temperatures could fall below freezing bringing the threat for frozen precipitation. A wintry mixture is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Latest model guidance is unclear how long cold air will hold at the surface Thursday morning. Utilized the top down method for PTYPE (GFS as primary temperature profiles) and WPC for QPF Wednesday night into Thursday. The biggest concern is for the chance for freezing rain and sleet because of a warm layer. Any ice accumulation should be less than 0.25". In our favor is that the ground relatively warm and any ice accretions may be mainly on elevated surfaces such as decks and vehicles. Sunday dayshift point out the potential for rime icing on trees for areas stuck in low clouds between 2500-4000 feet, especially along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures Wednesday night will mainly be the mid 20s in the west to the lower 30s in the east. A closed low moving over the Tennessee Valley will track along the western side of the Appalachians Thursday. The precipitation event that starts Wednesday night will exit to the north by Thursday evening. High temperatures on Thursday will only be from the upper 30s in the west to the lower 40s in the east. There is still plenty of tome to work out the details on the wintry weather for Wednesday into Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 332 AM EST Monday...
Troughing over the Eastern U.S. should develop and likely hold through next weekend. CAA and Northwest flow, could mean a chance for some upslope snow across the mountains. A weak cold front will slide across the area Friday. A secondary front will then cross the region Friday night. The second front will be moisture starved with any precipitation staying over the mountains. Precipitation coming in by Friday evening will fall as rain. After midnight into Saturday, mountains snow showers and flurries are expected. Any accumulations will primarily be along western slopes of SE WV. Drier and colder weather expected Sunday.
Temperature will continue to run colder than normal. The warmest day will be Friday with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.