|Dew Point:||34°F (1°C)|
|Wind:||From the East at 9 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||40°F (4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.05 in (1018 mb)|
Hi 51 °F
Hi 51 °F
Hi 61 °F
Hi 74 °F
Hi 75 °F
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain. Low around 42. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Showers. High near 51. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of showers, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 50.
Sunny, with a high near 74.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
mountains may stay in the low 40s. Low pressure in Georgia will move southeast into South Carolina tonight. This system will generate rain across our area today into Monday. Rain will be heavy at times and a flood watch remains in effect until 8pm Monday. Current radar shows rain in the southwest moving towards our area. Rain will become widespread this afternoon into tonight. more changes later this morning...
Previous morning discussion...
As of 734 AM EDT Sunday...
Not much on radar at the moment but upstream area of rain coming together over Eastern TN, and look for the southern county warning area to fill back in with rain as upper divergence shifts to the region after 10am. No other changes needed to the forecast.
Expect a lull in heavier showers this morning as we wait for the positive tilt trough over the Mid-MS valley shift east and become more neutral then negatively tilted by tonight, while deepening. For this morning, pockets of deep moisture convergence situated from the southern Appalachians northeast to the VA piedmont will continue the shower threat here with less to little coverage over Southeast WV to the southern Shenandoah Valley. Some fog at the higher elevations is likely with low clouds in place.
Better lift/jet dynamics/upper difluence start to move into southern forecast area after mid morning, then shield of rain stays elongated from Southeast KY/Eastern TN east to the VA/NC piedmont with models varying on where the heavier rain falls, but based on high-res runs and track of sfc/upper low, the flow into the southern Blue Ridge favors higher totals here, this afternoon/evening then expanding over the Piedmont tonight. Convection should be limited with stable airmass under high pressure wedge, but cannot rule out some elevated convection near the NC piedmont south of Danville/South Boston, but overall not enough support for thunder. Per models, and not expecting deeper convection, hourly rainfall rates should be limited, however, still after the past couple of days of scattered to numerous showers, and adding on another 1-2 inches, with possibly up to 3 inches near/east of the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke to the NC piedmont, the flood threat remains for creeks/streams and rivers. The flash flood threat will be isolated but cannot rule out some pockets across the southern Blue Ridge this evening.
So in essence after somewhat of a quiet early morning, look for rain to pick up late this morning and especially this evening and overnight, when the flow in the low levels increases out of the east. Late tonight, some potential for dry slot to work toward the Mountain Empire before the easterly fetch off the Atlantic pulls rain back to the west Monday.
Temperatures during this time will be cool with upper 40s to lower 50s for most, with coolest readings along the Blue Ridge south of Roanoke to Boone.
Rainfall overnight will keep temps from falling much but expect 40s areawide.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...
Vertically stacked cyclone will continue to slowly pinwheel into central Georgia Monday into Monday night. There still is a good transport of moisture in southeast flow Monday with PWAT values on the order of 1.25" along/east of the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont, though the highest values are more focused into eastern sections of North Carolina and eastern Virginia. In addition, stable thermodynamic profiles owing to residual wedge should keep rainfall rates lower/more gradual and also likely mitigate any thunder. Steadiest rainfall and highest PoPs Monday into Monday evening will also be more focused in the southeast upslope areas in the Blue Ridge foothills and eastward into the Piedmont, with relatively lower (Likely tapering to Chance) with more shadowing into southeast West Virginia and adjacent sections in southwest Virginia. Will also start to see increasingly more breezy northeast to north winds particularly in eastern sections later Monday into Monday night. This is due to a strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure over the Northeast states and a sub-1000 mb low over the Carolinas, with northerly isallobaric component also helping to keep breezy conditions going even into overnight. Highs are only in the 50s tomorrow and fall to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
By Tuesday, upper low begins to undergo deamplification with an eventual track along the Carolina coastline. As the upper low pivots northward on Tuesday, we should see a northward commahead rain band brush our Piedmont and Southside counties during the morning hrs, with accumulations here tending to be two tenth of an inch or less. Lighter showers in central and western counties are anticipated. Forcing for precipitation then becomes more nebulous through the afternoon with a taper-down in PoPs areawide to dry on Tuesday night. A little less cloudiness in the afternoon should help to boost highs back into the mid 60s to near 70 with lows mid 40s to lower 50s.
We return to sunnier, milder and drier weather looking ahead to Wednesday. The upper low that plagues our weather loses its influence and pivots into New England, with mid-level ridging building out ahead of more unsettled weather that looks to evolve across the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Southwesterly warm advection pattern begins and temperatures then return back into the upper 70s to a few 80s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...
The long wave trough deepens in the central United States putting the region in broad southwest flow Thursday through Saturday. Models were showing varying degrees of strength of the southeast ridge. Low pressure tracking northeast into the Great Lakes will move a front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This boundary stalls on Friday before another low moving out of the southern Plains pushes a warm front into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. This pattern keeps the rain potential to the west of the Mid Atlantic states. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday and Thursday.