|Dew Point:||33°F (1°C)|
|Wind:||From the East at 15 MPH Gusting to 22 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||24°F (-5°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Rain then Rain And Snow LikelyHigh: 38 Low: 27
SnowHigh: 33 Low: 22
Partly SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 23
SunnyHigh: 39 Low: 23
Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 40 Low: 29
Rain before 2pm, then rain and snow likely between 2pm and 5pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy. High near 38, with temperatures falling to around 32 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. North wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible.
A chance of snow before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 23.
Sunny, with a high near 39.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
A slight chance of rain after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 40.
... Low pressure over the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will cross over the central Appalachians today, sparking the development of a coastal storm tonight and Wednesday that will turn into a Nor'easter as it moves northeast along the Mid Atlantic and New England Coast. High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 AM EDT Tuesday...
Confidence increasing for heavy snow for parts of the Mid- Atlantic into southern New England tonight and Wednesday, with lingering effects Wednesday night.
A complex evolution of fronts and surface lows will evolve through the near term, as moisture moves northeastward from the Gulf Coast region interacting with colder air moving south from New England. This clash of the airmasses will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone which will be the focus for rapid development and deepening of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic tonight.
Several pieces of upper level energy, short waves, will consolidate over the OH/TN valleys today, this energy sparking the development of a coastal storm tonight that will rapidly deepen along the existing baroclinic zone. Models suggest this feature will develop into yet another Nor'easter with the surface pressure dipping under 985 mb by late Wednesday. During the evolution of this system, both dynamic cooling aloft and cold air advection from the north into our region will result in steadily falling temperatures...precipitation across our region changing from rain to snow. The forecast challenge will be to identify where the rain will change to snow first vs. last and and to assess snow yield potential. The ground is warm, so it will have to snow pretty intensely to get it to stick to the pavement. Greatest intensity and lift from this system is forecast along the spine of the Appalachians,and this is where we have the highest confidence of significant accumulating snow.
For most of the daylight hours today, forecast is pretty simple...lingering clouds, occasional rain and steady or falling temperatures through the 40s and into the upper 30s. The rain may actually come to an end for a while this afternoon before redeveloping this evening.
Onset of snow tonight will occur between sunset and midnight for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, then after midnight for the foothills and piedmont. The greater potential for heavier snowfall accumulations will be across the higher elevations of the Appalachians near the WV/VA border with amounts of 3 to 6 inches in the valleys and as much as 8-12 inches for elevations above 3000 feet. East of the Blue ridge, amounts will drop off quickly as this area will experience a change over much later in time. The exception will be for areas along and north of 460 including Lynchburg and Appomattox, where colder air arriving from northern VA will permit more accumulation there (up to 3 inches). From the city of Danville and areas to the south into the Piedmont of NC, the expectation is for an inch or less. IF enough cold air can get drawn south behind the developing coastal storm Wednesday, it is conceivable for a bit more across the piedmont, but even then it will be a challenge to get it to stick to anything other than the grass and elevated objects per the warmer ground temperatures in the piedmont.
Low temperatures tonight are expected to range the upper 20s in the mountains, along and west of the Blue Ridge, to the mid 30s in the NC Piedmont. For Wednesday went cooler than guidance with respect to the high temperature, most areas remaining in the 30s due to snow cover and continuation of cold air advection from the north. As the storm takes shape and moves northeast, expect increasing northwest winds Wednesday afternoon, gusts 30 to 40 mph across the higher ridges.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Tuesday...
The slow moving vertically stacked upper low and associated deformation zone will linger across the southern half of the forecast area before shifting east-northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Expect snow to linger in the shrinking deformation zone, which most models agree will be located in the southeast KY, east TN, southwest VA, northwest NC vicinity. Northwest winds may aid in upslope snow, especially across the Alleghanys. Thus, in concert with neighboring offices, will continue the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory through Thursday morning 12Z, keeping in mind that the bulk of any additional hazard level snow will likely occur prior to 04Z Thu. Temperatures will remain well below normal through Thursday with lows in the 20s and 30s and highs in the 30s and 40s.
Gusty northwest winds during the day Wednesday will begin to diminish overnight into Thursday morning as high pressure starts to move south from the Great Lakes.
For Friday, weather will become a bit quieter as the upper low moves northeast of the area and out to sea and a high amplitude yet progressive upper ridge drifts from the central U.S. into the eastern U.S. Surface high pressure will build southward into the area from the Great Lakes leaving temperatures yet again well below normal with highs mostly in the 40s west to 50s Piedmont and lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...
Progressive pattern will continue with a series of vigorous short waves tracking across the U.S. from west to east.
A vigorous highly kinematic system that will bring heavy rain to southern CA in the next couple of days will reach our region by the weekend. Thus, after a brief break from the active weather on Friday, a warm front extending from low pressure in the midwest will begin to push precipitation back into the region Saturday. Models are a bit slower than in previous runs in bringing this precipitation into the region, generally in the afternoon. Temperature profiles would suggest some potential for wintry precipitation again, more so though if the precipitation arrived earlier in the day. A cold front then pushes southeastward through the region Sunday into Monday with additional rounds of precipitation, some which could be heavy. Mainly a rain event, but temperatures will be close to levels, especially during the morning hours, to be at least slightly concerned about winter precipitation. Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal through the entire period.