|Dew Point:||15°F (-9°C)|
|Wind:||From the West at 14 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||13°F (-11°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.04 in (1017 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: 17
SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 20
Mostly SunnyHigh: 38 Low: 25
Slight Chance Snow Showers then Mostly CloudyHigh: 36 Low: 28
Rain LikelyHigh: 44 Low: 36
Mostly clear, with a low around 17. West wind around 5 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 37. West wind 5 to 13 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 20. West wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. South wind around 7 mph.
A slight chance of snow showers before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Rain likely after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
... High pressure will keep the area dry into Thursday night. A low pressure system will cross the southern United States later this week, reaching the Mid Atlantic region Friday and Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 840 PM EST Monday...
Stretched out deformation zone to the south continues to pivot slowly to the southeast which should finally take the majority of high/mid clouds out of the area late tonight. This reflected via very dry air seen in the evening RNK sounding that should advect to the southeast by morning. However until lower dewpoint air works into the western slopes, expect to see some upslope driven low clouds possibly persist from Bluefield south into the early morning hours before fading. Otherwise given gradual clearing and lowering dewpoints overtop deep snow cover, will see great radiational cooling continue with lows in the teens and some single digits valleys where values are already in the 15-20 range early this evening. Thus main change was to lower temps a few degrees over the west and adjust for more clouds early before clearing late. Winter weather advisory and SPS products to also continue for black ice through the morning commute given refreezing. In addition, cloud see patchy freezing fog develop along the river valleys, but given the low level dryness off the RNK soundings appears iffy, so only included mention in a few spots late tonight.
Previous discussion as of 250 PM EST Monday...
High pressure will build over the area tonight. Good radiational cooling conditions over snowpack will allow temperatures to quickly drop below freezing this evening and fall into the teens overnight. Water from snow melting this afternoon will refreeze tonight creating black ice problems into Tuesday morning. Per instructions, we will issue a Winter Weather Advisory across our northwestern North Carolina counties and Special Weather Statements for southwest Virginia and southeastern West Virginia for black ice. Temperatures may not go above freezing until late Tuesday morning with highs peaking into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Monday...
A period of drying and melting this period, with re-freezing at night of snow. Kept temps below MOS due to snow cover.
Models showing a strong northern stream shortwave/low moving across the Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley Wednesday with associated warm front lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley. This system shears out and weakens into Thursday but could see a few snow showers across the mountains of WV early Thursday.
Lows Tuesday night in the teens, increase to the 20s Wed night as clouds increase, but lingering snow pack may make it colder. In addition, warm advection over cold ground/snow will likely lead to fog development Wed night.
Highs Wed-Thu similar with upper 30s to lower 40s area wide, with some mid 40s creeping into the southwest VA area.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Monday...
Amplified pattern with closed low/deep trough across the southern Plains into Texas Thu night will shift east northeast to the Virginias by Saturday. Models are in better agreement overall in our area getting mainly rain, but still some differences in strength and path of upper low. GFS is stronger and further north than the ECM. But for the general forecast we are looking at a threat of moderate rain Friday into Friday night. Despite warm advection, surface wedge will hold temps in the 40s across most of the area Friday, but see no ptype issues.
Precip winds down somewhat into Saturday with models keeping low level temps warm enough for mainly rain showers. With model showing more disagreement over the weekend kept close to the ensembles and previous forecast with smaller chance of mountain rain or snow showers Sunday into Monday with northern stream system possibly arriving early next week.
One thing the ensembles have trended toward is less rainfall amounts but still looking at potential for at least 1 to 2 inches Friday into Saturday. Ensemble forecasts for the rivers showing a chance of moderate flooding along the Dan River basin. Even if snow cover melts completely by the time the rain arrives, the saturated grounds and moderate to possibly heavy rain on top could lead to local hydro issues.
Temperatures this weekend will actually be at or just above normal.