|Dew Point:||-4°F (-20°C)|
|Wind:||From the WNW at 16 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||-13°F (-25°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.26 in (1025 mb)|
SunnyHigh: 29 Low: 22
Slight Chance Sleet then Light Rain LikelyHigh: 45 Low: 35
Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Mostly CloudyHigh: 37 Low: 20
Mostly SunnyHigh: 26 Low: 8
Clear, with a low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 29. South wind 3 to 8 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 6 to 14 mph.
A slight chance of sleet between 7am and 8am, then a slight chance of freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then rain likely and a slight chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 45. South wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain before 10pm, then rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Rain showers before 7am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 7am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 8.
... The center of Arctic high pressure will continue to approach from the upper Midwest. The high will shift east to the Atlantic coast by late Tuesday allowing a a brief warmup before a complex low pressure system brings widespread precipitation to the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional precipitation is expected with a system this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Monday...
Surface high pressure shifts from the eastern OH valley to the Atlantic coast over the next 24 hours putting our brief encounter with arctic air in the rearview mirror. Temperatures aloft rise substantially overnight from near -20C at h85 to near 0C by midday Tuesday. Should still see some cold surface readings into the single digits especially in sheltered valleys, but with winds dropping way off it will feel about 20 degrees warmer than the worst of the recent chill. Tomorrow will be much warmer with light southerly winds and highs from low 30s NW to near 40 SE under mostly sunny skies.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EST Monday...
Tuesday night there area will still be in a region of increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of the next weather system to impact our region. Look for cloud cover to thicken and lower through the night. Light precipitation is possible toward dawn across the North Carolina Foothill region and neighboring parts of the Piedmont region in Virginia. The precipitation type still looks like it could be a challenge to forecast. Initially the entire column may be cold enough for the precipitation to start as light snow. However, as a warm nose aloft increases in depth and magnitude, there should be a transition to sleet then freezing rain, then eventually all rain as temperatures at the surface climb to above freezing by the late morning on Wednesday. In fact, on Wednesday, this wintry mix will translate northeast with the nose of the best moisture, thus impacting areas farther northeast within the Piedmont region of Virginia and also near the crest of the Blue Ridge. By Wednesday afternoon, all locations are expected to be warm enough for plain rain.
Wendesday night, the system's associated cold front is expected to cross the area around or a little after midnight. This will keep rain continuing through the evening, with colder air arriving in the west by daybreak Thursday. Patchy light snow will be possible across southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina after roughly midnight, and continue into Thursday morning, decreasing in coverage and intensity by Thursday afternoon, ending last across western Greenbrier County, WV. The remainder of the forecast area can expect no precipitation and decreasing cloud cover by Thursday afternoon, continuing into Thursday night.
Thursday night in the west the first half of the night is expected to be precipitation-free. Past midnight, a clipper system will be moving through the Great Lakes region with its associated trough axis heading east through Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Some isolated snow showers associated with it may reach parts of southeast West Virginia by daybreak Friday.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend milder through Thursday night, but still be close to normal. The one exception will be low temperatures Tuesday night. With strong warm air advection in place, low temperatures are expected to occur in the early evening, with temperatures rising slowly through the night at most places. Where they don't rise, little change in temperature is expected through the night.
Forecast confidence is moderate during this portion of the forecast.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM EST Monday...
During this portion of the forecast, a persistent upper low will be parked over the Ontario/Quebec region of Canada. As it rotates, weaker troughs of low pressure and their associated cold fronts will spiral into and across our region. The timing and impact of these features has not had model run-to-run consistency. Also, their interaction, if any, with southern stream lows/troughs has not been consistent, thus adding to greater uncertainty and lower confidence farther in the latter portion of our forecast.
However, given the above challenges, one persistent feature has been the focus for the location of the best coverage of precipitation with these shortwave troughs if there is no interaction with any southern stream features. Without southern stream influence, the bulk of any associated precipitation from the northern stream features will be across our southeast West Virginia counties and neighboring counties of southwest Virginia, and perhaps areas south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. An entire northern stream dependent scenario would limit the available moisture, and the bulk of it would be realized as upslope stratocumulus cloud cover and isolated to scattered snow showers across the aforementioned region. Areas along and east of the crest of the Blue Ridge would experience little if any precipitation.
If we include the potential for a southern stream low to head northeast near or just east of the east coast of the U.S. Sunday into Monday as both the Canadian and European solutions offer, then precipitation coverage across the Piedmont region will greater, with a challenging precipitation-type forecast given vastly different forecasts of the low level temperature profile across this region during this time frame.
Our forecast will reflect influence from northern stream features on Friday and Saturday night. Sunday into Monday it will acknowledge the potential for some rain vs snow in our east with the potential for influence from a coastal low as well as influence from a northern stream feature.
Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be a few degrees either side of average for this time of year.
Forecast confidence is low to moderate given the uncertainties explained regarding any southern stream interaction during the latter half of the weekend into early next week.