|Dew Point:||71°F (22°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSE at 9 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||NA°F (NA°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.09 in (1019 mb)|
Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 78 Low: 64
Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 72 Low: 60
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 61 Low: 55
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 65 Low: 58
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 69 Low: 60
A slight chance of rain showers between noon and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. West wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
... High pressure remained anchored across the eastern U.S. with the center of the high over eastern North Carolina. A strong cold front extended south from low pressure across central Ontario, into the Great Lakes region, and then southwest into Oklahoma. This front will approach our region tomorrow, and then stall over, or just south of, the region Sunday into early next week, all while a nose of high pressure works its way south along the lee of the Appalachians.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Friday...
Isolated showers finally developed in far southwest VA around Whitetop. Do not expect these to last much longer per lack of forcing. Left fog expectation alone for now as thinking warmer temperatures today will inhibit widespread dense fog development. High clouds will also be spreading into western areas late, leaving the Piedmont the most susceptible to fog development late. Adjusted pops down a bit overnight as latest HIRES models do not bring precipitation even into the far western parts of the CWA until daybreak. Temperatures were running a bit warmer than forecast, so delayed the cooling and raised mins a degree or two in some areas. It should be another unseasonably warm/muggy night for late September.
/Forecast Confidence Levels/ Temperatures - Moderate Precipitation Chances - Low to Moderate Winds - Low to Moderate Thunderstorm Threat Overnight - Low
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...
High pressure will continue to control our weather pattern tonight, heading into Saturday. Precipitation early tonight will be limited to a few showers that develop the remainder of this afternoon that survive into the early evening hours. The focus for development is still expected to be centered along or near the crest of the Blue Ridge or the higher ridges of the southern Alleghany Highlands. Much later tonight, actually towards daybreak Saturday, isolated to scattered showers are expected to arrive across portions of southeast West Virginia in advance of an approaching cold front.
Expect a return of patchy river or mountain valley fog towards daybreak. Any fog that develops should erode shortly after sunrise.
Low temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year with readings in the low 60s to mid 60s across the mountains and mid 60s to upper 60s over the Piedmont.
On Saturday, the portion of the cold front closer to the Great Lakes will progress into Pennsylvania faster than the section that will be heading towards our section of the Appalachians. The result will be the northern extent curving southward and entering the northeastern section of the area as a backdoor cold front, all while the southern extent of the cold front is still approaching our region from the west. The result will be a day where showers, and some storms, increase in coverage across the entire area from the west and the northeast, and coverage across the southern half of the area by the afternoon.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to near 80 across the mountains to the low to mid 80s across the Piedmont.
Confidence in the above portion of the forecast is moderate to high.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Friday...
Little change in the synoptic pattern with troughing in the central and western United States and ridging in the east. Sunday and Monday southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina will be under a strong wedge. Bufkit forecast soundings showed colder air confined to the lowest 2000 feet agl but east to southeast winds and moist air extend up to around 800 mb. Lots of cloud cover and rain on Sunday will hold temperatures nearly steady. Wedge makes steady progress south on Saturday night but lifted index forecast from both NAM and GFS showed western Tazwell into western Watauga County may remain on the fringe of the wedge and in the warmer air on Sunday.
Enough overrunning Sunday night and Monday to maintain areas of light rain, drizzle and fog. Again Monday only minimal temperature rise. Will increase the probability of precipitation on Sunday which is the period with the best positive vorticity advection and Monday which had the most pronounced isentropic lift.
Confidence was above average for temperatures and probability of precipitation and average for all other elements.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1215 PM EDT Friday...
Large scale trough will develop in the northwest and north central United States for Tuesday through Thursday. Models were in above average agreement through Friday with the synoptic pattern. Surface based wedge may erode on Tuesday putting southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia in the warm sector. As long as the wedge breaks, this looks to be the day with the warmer maximum temperatures and a lower probability of precipitation. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and will be moving through the Carolinas on Thursday. Only slightly cooler behind the front but a re-enforcing push of another cold front and cooler air is upstream in the Ohio Valley. Southern push of both fronts and any cooler air may be limited by overall west-southwest mid level winds. Boundaries are close enough to maintain a chance probability of precipitation in the forecast Wednesday through Friday.
Confidence was average for all elements.