Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

Hot Springs, VA

INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF VIRGINIA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE

Currently

Temperature 26.65°F
Feels Like 14.05°F
Humidity 74%
Pressure 1009mb
Wind 20.71mph from the W
Overcast clouds 27°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Partly Cloudy
Low: 46°F
Tuesday Sunny
High: 46°F Low: 35°F
Wednesday Sunny
High: 53°F Low: 26°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 48°F Low: 30°F
Friday Mostly Cloudy then Chance Light Rain
High: 42°F Low: 40°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Gusty northwest winds and low relative humidity levels will persist into late Wednesday as the Mid-Atlantic remains situated between deep low pressure over eastern Canada, and a large area of high pressure approaching from the northern Plains. Passage of an upper level disturbance will trigger spotty upslope snow showers tonight across southeast West Virginia. The next chance for rainfall remains most probable for Friday when low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

Upslope clouds continue this evening, along with the occasional snow shower across the mountains. Snow showers will taper off overnight, but winds and cloud cover will remain.

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Adjustments to the temperatures and dew points were made to account for current trends.

As of 230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Gusty west-northwest winds and drier air continue.

2. Fire Danger Statement is in effect for through this evening for Alleghany, Surry and Wilkes Counties in northwest NC, as well as VA Counties along and east of the Blue Ridge, and parts of the southern Shenandoah Valley.

3. Another Fire Danger Statement likely tomorrow for much of VA.

Surface observations indicate gusts between 20 to 30 mph across the mountains this afternoon, consistent with a tight pressure gradient between low pressure to our east and high pressure sinking from the Central Plains into the ArkLaTex. Cirrus was moving NE across the Piedmont this afternoon. Dense altocumulus and stratocumulus covered much of the Midwest and the OH Valley and was pushing into SE WV and parts of west VA. This last intrusion was due to moisture streaming off the Great Lakes and interacting with a band of upper level vorticity. This cloud cover will bank along the Blue Ridge through tomorrow morning, while downsloping winds will clear out skies east and south of there. A few light snow showers are still possible for the Greenbrier Valley through the overnight, where an inch of accumulation is possible.

Temperatures tonight will be quite chilly with lows along and west of the Blue Ridge dipping into the 20s, while areas further east will bottom out around 30 degrees. High tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s.

At the surface, dry air prevails with dew points in the teens and single digits. PWATs range from about 0.20 to 0.30 inches in our region, and will continue to tumble to a tenth or two overnight. The NAEFS forecast during this time is in the bottom 10% of all forecasts for this day and time, meaning we are much, much lower than climatology. TOmorrow we do not improve much.

Despite the cooler temperatures, the dry air and winds are still having a significant negative impact as far as fire weather concerns, and a fire danger statement remains in effect for parts of NW NC, as well as parts of VA east of the Blue Ridge through 8 PM. Another fire danger statement will likely be issued for tomorrow once the current one expires.

Confidence in the near term is high.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Windy to very windy conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 2. Potential fire weather concerns with the gusty winds and expected low humidity 3. Weaker winds but still dry for Thursday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, the axis of a longwave trough will be positioned northeast of the region. This will place our area within a prolonged period of northwest flow. Within this flow, a shortwave trough is expected to cross our region on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Very limited moisture will be associated with this feature. At best, some isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers may occur over parts of Western Greenbrier County, WV.

The main impact from the system will be a resurgence in wind speed/gusts across the area in two possible surges. Forecast 850mb winds increase to 40 to 50 kts across the area Tuesday night, and then after a small decline Wednesday morning, increase again to 40 to 45 kts by the late afternoon, and continue at similar values through the overnight hours. This type of pattern with strong northwest winds - yielding a subsidence factor east of the Blue Ridge - adds an element of compressional warming that counters a bit of the strong cold air advection, and also typically yields dew point values, and thus relative humidity values, lower than those offered by numerical guidance. Will adjust the forecast accordingly to match this known bias. Surface wind gusts will be strongest Tuesday night, and then again Wednesday afternoon/evening. Will need to monitor for the potential for any wind headlines. Additionally, with the combination of the dry conditions, very gusty winds, and fuel moistures trending lower, we are considering a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday.

Thursday into Thursday night will be a period of transition as the low to our northeast exits, and a low near the Four Corners region intensifies and shifts eastward. This transition will allow for our low level winds to back and decrease in speed. This process will keep us dry, but start a trend towards milder temperatures.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Continued low confidence in the details of the forecast. 2. Rain chances Friday into Friday night. 3. Mainly dry Saturday into Monday with a warming trend.

For the past few days, our weather forecast for Friday has been a bit of a question mark. There has been pretty decent consistency that rain will occur, the challenge has been the potential impact, or lack thereof, both a southern stream system and a northern stream system interacting over the area. Greater inaction would mean more rainfall, whereas less interaction would mean less. The latest guidance does not help in solving this question as there still are notable differences. What has remained consistent for a while now is the track of the southern stream trough/low remains south and southeast of our region. Given no firm evidence to deviate significantly from the ongoing forecast, our forecast for Friday into Friday night will remain roughly the same - rain arriving Friday southwest to northeast, continuing Friday night with the best coverage in the south, and moving out Saturday morning.

In the wake of the system we trend dry again through Sunday, and most likely Monday as well. Much will depend upon the evolution of the southern stream low. Guidance ranges from having a system progress east, so that by Monday it is northeast of the Bahamas. Other solutions suggest a slower exit such that the low may ride north along the East Coast of the US with westward advecting moisture returning to the area by Monday. Our forecast will place more weight on the drier solution, which will also be a solution with a warming trend as a trough develops across central CONUS, allowing for southerly advection into the area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is on the low side of moderate.

Homestead Resort