Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

Harrisonburg, VA

FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA, THE WASHINGTON DC METRO, AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING

Currently

Temperature 29°F
Feels Like 21.25°F
Humidity 55%
Pressure 1013mb
Wind 11.5mph from the WNW
Overcast clouds 29°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Mostly Clear
Low: 47°F
Tuesday Mostly Sunny
High: 47°F Low: 35°F
Wednesday Sunny
High: 53°F Low: 27°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 46°F Low: 28°F
Friday Partly Sunny
High: 43°F Low: 38°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

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Gusty winds and low relative humidity values look to continue through Thursday as a result of strong low pressure over eastern Canada and broad high pressure building south from the northern Plains region. A cold front will push through the area late tonight into Wednesday bringing another round of accumulating upslope mountain snow showers to the Alleghenies. More widespread precipitation chances hold off until Friday and the start of the weekend as an area of low pressure pushes north from the Gulf Coast region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Outside of some lingering mountain upslope snow showers over the Alleghenies this morning expect another dry and breezy day ahead. Deep low pressure will remained locked up over eastern Canada with broad high pressure along the Gulf Coast and an even stronger high pressure system building south from central Canada. This will lead to a continuation of gusty west to west-southwest flow across the region and low relative humidity values leading to increased fire weather concerns (see Fire Weather discussion below). Highs today will push into the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Expect some mid- level cloudiness especially later this afternoon and evening as longwave troughing and an approaching cold front over the Ohio River Valley advance toward the region.

Skies will clear back out overnight east of the Alleghenies with westerly downslope flow. Areas along and west of the Alleghenies will likely see continued cloudiness and another shot of accumulating upslope mountain snow showers. An additional 1-2 inches of snow is possible at elevations above 2500 feet. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s and low 40s with values closer to freezing over the mountains. Winds will also begin to increase with longwave trough positioned nearby and the next incumbent shortwave trough/front set to approach from the west Wednesday. With that said, expect sustained west-west southwest winds gusting between 20- 25 mph east of the Blue Ridge and 25-35 mph gusts further west this afternoon. Gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible along the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies especially later this evening and into Wednesday morning. This is especially tries across western MIneral, western Allegany, western Grant, Pendleton, and Highland counties where a fairly persistent signal for advisory criteria winds continues to show up. Higher confidence for wind advisory criteria appears to be toward Wednesday morning and afternoon. With that said, have decided to hold off on wind headlines at this time.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A reinforcing cold front and shortwave trough cross the area Wednesday. The front will bring limited moisture in the form of mountain upslope snow showers over the Allegheny Front and passing clouds further east. The bigger story will be the winds with 850 mb winds running 40-50 kts ahead of the boundary Wednesday morning and it's wake Wednesday afternoon. Sustained west to northwest gusts as a result, will run between 20-30 mph east of the Blue Ridge with 30- 40 mph gusts further west. 40-50 mph gusts are likely especially along the eastern slopes of the Alleghenies. Will need to monitor the potential for wind headlines mainly over the mountains given the consistent signal amongst the deterministic/ensemble guidance. These strong winds could result in isolated downed trees and power lines.

With downsloping flow ahead and in the immediate wake of the boundary expect slightly warmer temperatures Wednesday. Highs will climb into the upper 50s and low 60s. The mild air combined with gusty winds and lowering relative humidity/fuel moistures will lead to additional fire weather concerns. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening for much of the forecast area outside of western MD and north-central MD.

High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes region to southern New England Thursday and Thursday night. Highs will be cooler than average with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s with some lower 50s in eastern Virginia. Low relative humidity values will remain although winds will gradually decrease throughout the day as the gradient relaxes. Lows Thursday night will fall into the mid to upper 20s (low 20s mountains).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Cutoff low pressure lifting from the Gulf to the Mid-Atlantic later this week will spread rain across the area Fri night into Saturday. Low pressure begins to pull out Sat night with rain ending. Sfc ridging sets up over the first half of the week keeping fair weather. Another system may impact the area next Tue bringing the next chance of showers.

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