|Dew Point:||39.0°F (3.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 7.0 MPH Gusting to 10.0 MPH|
|Wind Chill:||37°F (3°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 46 Low: 27
Light SnowHigh: 31 Low: 20
Mostly SunnyHigh: 34 Low: 22
SunnyHigh: 39 Low: 26
Chance Snow Showers then Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 43 Low: 31
Scattered rain showers before 7am, then rain likely before 9am, then scattered rain showers between 9am and 4pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Southeast wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Rain before 11pm, then sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 5 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 31. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Snow likely before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 22.
Sunny, with a high near 39.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
A chance of snow showers between 7am and 11am, then rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
... Low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the region into Thursday. High pressure takes control late week with another low pressure system next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 640 AM Tuesday...
Temperatures are a bit cooler over far NW corner of forecast area than previously forecast. Have lowered temps a bit and added some sleet for the next several hours.
As of 345 AM Tuesday...
Surface low currently moving by south of the CWA, and you can start to see the portion that will break off and park over the forecast area over the next couple days in response to a couple upper level systems. First area of precip associated with this now moving across the northern half of the forecast area, and down the Appalachian spine. Dry slot already moving into the WV lowlands. Did not go completely dry in this dry slot...instead maintaining slight chance to low end chance POPs for any isolated to scattered showers...such as the ones moving through eastern KY right now.
Still have a bit of wintry mix across the far northern mountains early this morning so will leave current winter weather advisory in place. Otherwise, for today expect rain across the forecast area. The first upper level low passes quickly today and does not pull in any significantly colder air.
Attention then turns to the second upper level low, which will reinvigorate the surface feature tonight and pull in much colder air. This will bring a transition from rain to snow this evening into tonight....beginning first across SE Ohio and in the WV mountains. Main concern with snow tonight is warmer boundary layer and surface temperatures which will eat into snow accumulations at first. But we also have a decent area of strong frontogenesis on the N/E side of the surface low. This should drive a mesoscale type area of heavier snow which may be able to overcome the less than ideal low level temps. Even outside of this area, more synoptic level forcing should still drive decent snowfall rates. Snow should be a wetter, heavier snow with ratios starting out in the 5-10:1 range and increasing to 10-15:1 late tonight. Have upgraded the winter storm watch to a warning across generally the mountains. And then converted the rest of the watch to a winter weather advisory. Main concern is whether any mesoscale features could push localized areas into warning criteria.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Tuesday...
Snow will continue across the area on Wednesday as an upper level low and surface low continue to wrap rounds of precipitation across the region. Could be some heavier bands at times on Wednesday, and current thinking is this will generally be the case across the central mountains, and across Ohio, just north of our CWA, but any sort of heavy bands are very difficult to predict, and with the flip flopping of models over time, leads to even less confidence in pinpointing heavier bands. Overall, leaned towards WPC guidance with respect to snowfall totals, which leans heavily on the NAM and SREF. There is a bit of a concern as to how much snow will actually be able to accumulate across our lowland counties on Wednesday, with models suggesting boundary layer temperatures hovering around the 40 degree mark, or warmer. Elected to lower temperatures a bit Wednesday afternoon from the blended guidance, but even with doing that, still looking at minimal accumulations across much of the lowland counties Wednesday afternoon, but with moderate accumulations continuing across the mountains at times.
Precipitation will gradually taper off across the area Wednesday evening as the low moves off to the east, with just some light upslope snow showers lingering across the higher terrain through early Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...
Overall dry through much of Friday with high pressure in control. Weather becomes more unsettled from the weekend onward, as a low pressure system, and multiple upper waves move through the area. Precipitation could be heavy at times early next week with Gulf moisture surging into the region.