|Dew Point:||22.3°F (-5.4°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.75" (905.8 mb)|
Mostly CloudyLow: 47
Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 53 Low: 32
Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 29
SunnyHigh: 54 Low: 34
SunnyHigh: 60 Low: 41
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West wind around 8 mph.
Rain showers likely before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 9am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly clear, with a low around 29. East wind around 7 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 54.
Clear, with a low around 34.
Sunny, with a high near 60.
Mostly clear, with a low around 41.
... A low pressure system brings showers tonight and Monday. High pressure and mostly dry weather and a warming trend for the remainder of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM Sunday...
Holding off on any adjustments on POPs this evening given that the afternoon forecast package still matches up fairly well with current radar trends. However, I will be keeping an eye on radar and incoming hi-res model updates to see if any adjustments will become necessary.
As of 400 PM Sunday...
Did a fresh update on temperatures, dew points, and humidities for this afternoon, bumping up high temps by a degree in correspondence with local observations.
As of 120 PM Sunday...
Dry air remains entrenched near the surface. Had lowered dew points earlier today, but it wasn't near enough and have taken another 5+ degrees off the dew points through much of the afternoon. Can see dew points beginning to increase to the west, so the trend across the forecast area should turn around mid to late afternoon.
Keep the forecast mainly dry until around sunset, then bring POPs in from the west as a warm front slides in. Have this area of showers spreading across the northern forecast area before midnight. Attention then turns to a surface low moving through the lower Ohio River Valley overnight, and then crossing the central Appalachians on Monday. Have an area of 80-90 POPs crossing with the low. Maintained some isolated thunder mention across the far southern forecast area Monday afternoon where some better instability develops. Showers will then be on the decrease from west to east from late afternoon into the evening as the surface low pulls away.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday...
Low pressure exits to the east Monday night with Canadian high pressure building in from the north. Tuesday will be dry, but cooler. Low RH values with ample sunshine will dry things out from Monday's rain. Due to the wet conditions, fire danger should not become an issue until later in the week. Good radiational cooling and a cold night expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, warm March sunshine will recover temperatures on Wednesday with highs into the 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Again, models tend to overestimate dew point temps in this pattern, so RH values will likely dip into the 20 percent range by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light with high pressure centered overhead, but fire danger may still be elevated as fuels dry out.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday...
Strong surface high pressure will remain in control through the end of the week. Temperatures will continue to increase as well, with above average high temperatures expected on Thursday into the weekend. Low RH values Thursday afternoon and a slight increase in surface winds will keep the fire danger elevated, but other than that the weather should be quiet. Models are in good agreement keeping things dry until the weekend. Then they diverge on the arrival of the next system on Day 7 of the forecast. For this time period, went with a blend of ensemble and deterministic guidance, which brings in some low chance PoP from the west by Friday evening.