|Dew Point:||40.8°F (4.9°C)|
|Wind:||From the South at 4.2 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||26.66" (902.7 mb)|
Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 53 Low: 35
Chance Rain And Snow ShowersHigh: 37 Low: 25
Mostly SunnyHigh: 36 Low: 27
Mostly SunnyHigh: 37 Low: 24
SunnyHigh: 42 Low: 34
A slight chance of rain after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy. High near 37, with temperatures falling to around 32 in the afternoon. Northwest wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of snow showers before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind around 10 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Mostly clear, with a low around 24.
Sunny, with a high near 42.
... Cold front slowly pushes through the area later today and tonight. Remaining cool through mid week, but modest warming and dry for the end of the week. Strong system next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...
In the wake of a wave moving up the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, an anafront will cross this evening. The broken line of showers warranted likely PoPs fr the most part, even lower south, but did maintain categorical PoPs north.
Showers are still possible overnight and Tuesday, as the associated upper level trough crosses. This is most likely in the mountains, with the help of upslope flow. Snow showers will become more widely scattered in the lowlands, quitting altogether from west to east across the lowlands Tuesday afternoon.
With a well mixed layer progged below the frontal inversion, surface temperatures will get low enough for snow showers overnight and Tuesday in the mountains, and briefly Tuesday morning over the middle Ohio Valley. Accumulations remain minimal, maybe an inch or two across the higher mountainous terrain, mainly the windward slopes thereon.
Using near term and MET data, Tuesday will be a much colder day compared with today, with little diurnal rise under a stubborn stratocu deck.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday...
Tuesday night, the cold front from the near term will be making its exodus with a cool northwest wind and low-level clouds in its wake. A rather cool morning results, with low temperatures generally from 20 in the highest elevations to near 30 in the Tristate and Coal fields, around 5 degrees below normal. Morning stratus deck would dissipate from West to East through the morning hours of Wednesday.
High pressure noses in up the Ohio Valley Wednesday, keeping the region dry with a warming southwest wind and highs in the mid-30's to mid-40's. Wednesday night, a much stronger high pressure system over the Great Lakes into southern Ontario builds, driving a local northerly wind overnight. Strong low- to mid- level cold advection, driven by the Canadian high, forms a baroclinic zone while the passing trough axis aloft drives a resultant dry cold front South into our area Wednesday night, reinforcing the already-cold air in place. Low level moisture, when forced upslope by low-level winds, may materialize into a rain/snow mix should crystal growth occur and perhaps some patchy freezing drizzle otherwise across highest ridgetops Wednesday evening.
For Thanksgiving, high pressure dominates and keeps the area dry, and continued cold, northerly flow and some low- to mid-level cloud cover limits afternoon high temperatures to the 30's to near 40. High pressure only builds in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast Thursday night, setting up a healthy pressure gradient across the spine of the Appalachians, which in turn induces an easterly to southeasterly wind overnight, though not in time to stave off another cold night in the 20's to near 30.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...
A brief period of upper-level ridging Friday introduces warm/moist advection, bringing temperatures to more seasonable values for Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a central CONUS trough will exit the Rockies early Friday, amplifying as it traverses the Plain states through the day. Clouds associated with this system start streaming in Friday afternoon and evening from SW to NE, with precipitation chances increasing Friday night into early Saturday, also from SW to NE.
It is likely that, upon onset of precipitation, the higher elevations will experience a rain/snow mix or all-snow. More impactful is the potential for freezing rain in sheltered mountain valleys such as the upper Greenbrier in Pocahontas County and in the high plateaus of eastern Fayette and Raleigh counties. The synoptic set up for a cold air damming situation is well- evident, however boundary layer features are yet TBD with marked model differences at this stage. By daybreak, temperatures will warm with the help of warm advection and solar insulation, so precipitation will turn back over to rain.
The system is quick to exit later Saturday with its digging trough rotating up the East Coast, however troughing continues behind the system and models do indicate another system is quick on its heels to keep significant precipitation chances through the weekend.