Snowshoe Mountain Resort

Snowshoe, WV

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

Currently

Temperature 29°F
Feels Like 19.92°F
Humidity 79%
Pressure 1012mb
Wind 11.01mph from the WNW
Light snow 29°F Light snow
Overnight Chance Snow Showers
Low: 42°F
Friday Chance Snow Showers
High: 42°F Low: 38°F
Saturday Chance Rain Showers
High: 52°F Low: 44°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 53°F Low: 46°F
Monday Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 58°F Low: 50°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A weak system brings rain across the north and upslope snow for the mountains through this morning. Dry but windy through tonight. Several rounds of showers this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM Friday...

Key Points:

* Wind Advisory in effect through this evening for SE Randolph and both Pocahontas County zones.

* Fire concerns remain possible today for those who do not receive rain early this morning.

* Light snow accumulations possible for the highest elevations along the WV mountains today of 1 to 2 inches.

A weak shortwave propagating along a frontal boundary draped through the northern periphery of the forecast area early this morning has prompted light radar returns streaming down from the northwest. Temperature/dew point spread suggests that very little has actually reached the surface so far, with only a Trace noted at Wheeling and Morgantown so far in our nearby observation areas. Should see a slight increase in moisture/dew point values as we progress into the predawn hours, which should allow for some light accumulations in the lowlands before activity becomes more confined to the mountains.

While sprinkles/light rain will be the common precip-type in the lowlands with this weak disturbance today, sub-freezing temperatures along the mountains will promote a late March snow event. Showers wrap up quickly this afternoon as the shortwave drifts east of the Appalachians, but before doing so could allot for around an inch to an inch and a half of snow for our highest mountain zones. Otherwise, should be a dry evening as clouds diminish and we await our next disturbance encroaching on the Middle Ohio Valley late tonight into Saturday morning.

In conjunction with this disturbance, an increase in WNW winds is progged to take place today, especially along the spine of the Appalachians. Already starting to see an uptick in surface gusts at Snowshoe early this morning of around 25 mph, and should see that value increase in nature as flow along also increases. Forecast soundings today point to momentum transfer as high as 4,000ft AGL, which will allow for strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Generally looking at breezy wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the lowlands for this afternoon and evening, while the mountains could face gusts as high as 50 mph before the day is through. To add on to the previous Wind Advisory put in place for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas County, did elect to expand into SE Pocahontas with this latest update to account for any possible downsloping that may occur today.

Temperatures today will climb up into the mid to upper 60s across the Tri-State area while our northeastern zones will stay in the 40s/50s under continued showers. Given the increasing gusty winds today and aforementioned mixing potential, could foresee RH values dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s by this afternoon, posing the concern for fire ignition and spread. A special weather statement may be needed for enhanced fire danger during daylight hours today into this evening. Overnight temperatures heading into the start of the weekend look to be in the 40s across the area tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Point:

* Swath of moderate rain along a stalling frontal boundary may yield isolated high water issues by Sunday

At the outset of the short term period surface high pressure will reside over the Deep South/Eastern Gulf of Mexico with a relatively weak area of low pressure emerging from the Northern Rockies. A warm front associated with the latter feature will slowly drift north overnight Friday, exiting the forecast area to the north during the day on Saturday. Some light precipitation will be possible along and ahead of this feature late Friday night into Saturday. Forecast profiles are a little on the iffy side for weak elevated convection in the warm sector during the day Saturday with some question as to reaching saturation at the base of the elevated mixed layer and allowing for conditional instability release. Given the spread in solutions will defer to central guidance chance/likely PoPs, although these could decrease some over the next couple days as solutions converge. The weak surface low then washes out Saturday night leaving the remnants of its cold frontal boundary as a stationary front draped west to east across the region with some additional chances for light rain, but more importantly setting up a baroclinic battle zone to be worked across by a pair of systems Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

* Stalled frontal boundary brings increasing high water concerns Monday into Tuesday

* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon

* Light mountain snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday

As mentioned in the short term discussion, a stalled frontal boundary will bisect the region from west to east at the outset of the long term period. Troughing diving down the Pacific Coast, making a left turn at Albuquerque with lee cyclogenesis in the lee of the Southern/Central Rockies. Deep southwesterly flow in advance of this feature will open the taps of Gulf Moisture with a stream of 1.25 to 1.5 inch precipitable water values stretching from South Texas to the Middle Ohio Valley by Monday morning. Broad ascent aloft from both the right rear and left front quadrants of the northern/southern stream will work over this plume of enhanced moisture much of the day Monday yielding between one half and one inch of rain across much of the area. This initial rainfall could cause some of the more sensitive waterways to rise above bankfull, but more importantly will precondition soils to be more sensitive to subsequent precipitation Tuesday.

Model solutions still display a decent spread regarding eventual evolution of the aforementioned lee cyclogenesis Tuesday into Tuesday night but clustering solutions would suggest a warm front lifting toward during the day coupled with a shared energy area between the northern and southern stream providing forcing for ascent along the front and in the open warm sector during the day. Mid-level lapse rates in the warm sector aren't currently progged to be overly impressive, generally 6.5C/km or so, but the aforementioned abundance of moisture should still yield a decent amount of conditional instability in the presence of a reasonably strong kinematics. Contingent on timing, this could yield some chance for all severe modes Tuesday afternoon. As previously alluded to, antecedent wet conditions could also yield some high water issues with any swaths of heavier rainfall (likely along the warm front). Cold frontal passage is then expected Tuesday night ushering higher column moisture values out to the east through Wednesday morning.

Additional chances for precipitation arrive Wednesday afternoon as northern stream energy crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Across the lower elevations could see rain transitioning to some light non- accumulating snow Wednesday night. In the mountains, some light snow accumulations would be possible Wednesday night, mainly on grassy surfaces given antecedent warm ground conditions.

Shaver's Centre
Village
Boathouse
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