Bryce Resort / Basye

Basye, VA

FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHWEST VIRGINIA, THE WASHINGTON DC METRO, AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING

Currently

Temperature 31.53°F
Feels Like 31.53°F
Humidity 54%
Pressure 1014mb
Wind 0mph from the N
Overcast clouds 32°F Overcast clouds
Overnight Mostly Clear
Low: 51°F
Tuesday Mostly Sunny
High: 51°F Low: 36°F
Wednesday Mostly Sunny
High: 58°F Low: 25°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 48°F Low: 26°F
Friday Partly Sunny then Chance Light Rain
High: 48°F Low: 36°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure returns briefly Tuesday before another cold front crosses the area Wednesday. Very gusty west to northwesterly flow is expected at times through midweek along with mountain snow showers. High pressure briefly builds back in from the north Thursday with increasing rain chances later this week as low pressure pushes north from the Gulf Coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow has begun falling this evening and is expected to continue into the overnight hours along/west of the Allegheny Front. During that time, some areas will experience lulls in snowfall. Overall, the setup favors most of the accumulating snow to be above 2500 feet, with a dusting possible at some lower elevations on western slopes. Forecast snow amounts remain at 1-3 inches over portions of Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton Counties.

Freezing temperatures are likely across the entire area tonight as lows drop to the upper 20s to lower 30s. The urban centers of DC, Baltimore, and areas right along the Potomac and Chesapeake will likely stay just above freezing. The windy conditions in the Alleghenies will produce wind chills in the single digits to teens.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Outside of the Alleghenies, another dry and seasonal spring day is expected. Highs reach the low to mid 50s as west to west-southwest winds increase in the afternoon. Some mid-level cloudiness builds in towards the afternoon and evening hours. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds Tuesday will lead to an elevated fire danger Tuesday, more on that in the fire weather section below.

Mountain snow showers decreases early Tuesday before ramping back up Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. This could produce another inch, though mostly at the highest elevations. Although temperatures are marginal during the daylight hours, the forecast carries readings to around freezing by the time precipitation re-commences.

Milder conditions Tuesday night as lows only drop to the 30s to around 40F.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts and upper troughs cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday, though not much cold air nor precip accompanies them. However, the main impact is going to be increasing winds on Wednesday. Sustained west winds could gust up to 20-25mph east of the Blue Ridge, and around 35-40mph to the west. Some eastern slopes of the Alleghenies could gust up to 45-50mph. Wind Advisories may be needed for portions of the Alleghenies. These strong winds could result in isolated downed trees and power lines. Much warmer temperatures Wednesday as highs reach the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes region to southern New England Thursday and Thursday night. Dry conditions Thursday and Thursday night. Highs will be cooler than average with temperatures in the lower to middle 40s with some lower 50s in eastern Virginia.

Dry conditions continue Friday morning. An approaching low pressure system from the southwest areas of the eastern Tennessee Valley and western Carolinas will spread the chance of rain into the mid- Atlantic region Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Rain amounts should be intermittent and light with a few pockets of moderate rain possible depending on the model of choice. Also, depending on the model, the chance of rain versus the chance of light accumulating snow in the west and higher elevations changing over to snow, shows this big discrepancy. For now, we have a chance of rain and snow in the west and higher elevations. Temperatures will be cooler than average per the cloud cover and possible rain.

A brief break in any rainfall could occur later on Saturday and continue into Saturday night with weak high pressure trying to build in behind the departing low. The European model has a more generous solution of retrograding a coastal low back westward into the mid- Atlantic region Sunday into Sunday night and spreading a more modest stratiform rain into our region. This Euro run is the older run. The latest GFS model run shows the low from late Friday into Saturday moving on and having a ridge of high pressure building in from the west. Uncertainties on the late week and weekend low pressure along the coastal is moderate to high, considering a retrograding low would soak our region. Temperatures Saturday into Sunday should be average.