Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry weather and seasonable temperatures can be expected through Saturday under high pressure.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Morning Update: No major changes have been made to this forecast period.

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds to our west. A clear sunny sky today will compensate for cold advection under NW flow and high temperatures will be near the climatological average. A brief period of scattered low-level cu should form early this afternoon, mainly south of PIT, as wind shifts over eastern Ohio and moist advection occurs. With deep boundary layer mixing and a strong pressure gradient to our east, associated with a low pressure system over the Atlantic, breezy conditions will most likely occur east of PIT. Strong radiation cooling across the region overnight will dip temperatures near freezing.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is expected to continue through Saturday as high pressure builds further across the Upper Ohio Valley region, ahead of a Central CONUS trough. The ridge is expected to move east Saturday night, as the weakening trough and its associated weak cold front approaches. This should return slight to low chances for showers across OH and NW PA late Saturday night. Seasonable temperatures should rise above average levels by the weekend in warm advection ahead of the trough.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shower chances are expected Sunday as the weak trough and its associated sfc cold front cross the region. With weak upper support and limited deep layer moisture, maintained only low POPs through the day. Dry weather should return Monday under shortwave ridging.

A series of crossing shortwaves is W-WNW zonal flow aloft should return periodic shower chances to the region Monday night through mid week. Above average temperatures are expected through the long term period.

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