Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion



... Other than an isolated shower or storm today, dry and warm weather is expected through the weekend under a ridge of high pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Made some very minor updates to the gridded fields based on current trends. Upper troughing passing through the region, coincident with the passage of a weak cold front, is providing sufficient support for ascent to create isolated showers this afternoon, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Moisture is limited, helping to keep the coverage sparse.

Any precipitation will end this evening, and quiet conditions are expected overnight as shortwave ridging builds in the wake of the departing trough. Patchy fog will once again be possible, particularly in river valleys, as cooler overnight lows are expected as compared to this morning...5 to 10 degrees cooler in some cases.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The forecast area should be situated within broad 850mb high pressure building across the Ohio River Valley. Light, nly flow should help moderate Sunday's high temperature somewhat, but should generally remain above average given rising mid-level heights in response to deepening low pressure near Ark-La-Tex. Overall, it should be a rather pleasant day in general thanks to lower RH values advected within that nly flow.

Ridging should then amplify toward more of a summer-like pattern on Monday in response to a deep trough carving out over the Rockies. The digging of this trough across central CONUS should shunt high pressure ewd, situating the region within a modest warm, moist sly flow regime. As shortwave support increases with the approach of the trough, precipitation chances should increase, mainly for east-central Ohio. BUFKIT soundings near Zanesville suggest a deep, warm cloud layer, limited, but available instability, and forecast PWATs exceeding 1.25 inches. These ingredients together should support efficient, warm rain processes in any passing shower.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Tuesday, categorical PoPs are expected as that deep trough eventually pulls a cold front through the region into Wednesday. Cooler, generally drier air will filter in behind the front, with a few showers lingering closer to Lake Erie and in the higher terrain via upslope through Thursday as deepening low pressure centered over the Great Lakes becomes negatively tilted. High pressure should finally promote dry conditions by Friday, with continued seasonable temperature.