Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Evening update...Line of strong thunderstorms continues to rush eastward. Line was developed and maintained by a weak shortwave trough aloft and a large outflow boundary which developed ahead of the initial convection and continued eastward through the region. PoPs have been updated to better align with current radar trends and overnight lows were adjusted with a blend of hires model guidance.

Previous discussion... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight as the center of a low pressure system lingers over Lake Erie. By this time, storms are expected to be non-severe due to the loss of daytime heating.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By early Saturday morning, the low pressure system mentioned above will swing across I-80 and morph into a weak trough. Scattered showers will continue but thunderstorm chances will be low due heavy cloud coverage should hinder destabilization sufficiently to keep storm strength in check.

A brief break in precipitation is expected Saturday night, but another shortwave dipping into the middle Ohio Valley will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. A strong shortwave and a good 850mb moisture feed may provide another soaking rain in some locations. Warm advection will help push temperatures a bit higher during the afternoon, into the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Continued troughing aloft will keep rain chances and seasonable temperatures in the forecast Sunday night and Monday. Thereafter, troughing over western Canada will help to drive 500mb heights upward across much of the eastern CONUS. Heat will return to our region, with the 90 degree level likely to be breached once again in most areas by Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will be limited to mainly isolated diurnal convection.

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