Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Upper level disturbances will keep showery precipitation in the forecast through Monday. Mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected during the midweek period.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A closed upper-level low continues to skirt into northern New England today. Cold advection, from prevailing northwest flow, will keep temperatures slight below the climatological average. Despite lingering low-level moisture, the lack of upper-level lift has diminished the chances of snow showers this afternoon for areas <1,500ft; higher POP chances will stay focused in the ridges due upsloping.Scattered snow showers should return late this evening with an advancing shortwave over Lake Erie. Areas north of I-80 and the ridges have the best shot of snow accumulation; 1-2 inches is likely. With cloud-top temperatures hovering around -10C south of I-70 today, the concern of little to no ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone continues. If ground temperatures fall just below 32F, isolated freezing drizzle may prevail. However, with little confidence in this scenario, we will carry the text in the hazardous weather outlook but issue no headline products.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...With building high pressure in eastern Ohio, drier air may advance into the DGZ, especially south of Pittsburgh. With shallow low-level lift, freezing drizzle may continue to impact isolated areas during tomorrow's morning commute. Snow accumulation potential will continue to be best along the ridges and the far northern CWA due to lake enhancement, with another 1 to 2 inches expected.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak shortwaves are expected to continue to advance through our region Tuesday and Tuesday night; expected flurries and isolated snow showers. With building high pressure over the Midwest, dry conditions shall prevail mid-week.An upper-level ridge is expected to build over the West Coast and expand into the Great Plains late week. As a result, a promising surface low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico may track across the Carolinas and pass over the East Coast instead of advancing into the Ohio River Valley. However, quick passing shortwaves through the Great Lakes could return the chance of snow/rain over the weekend and early next week instead.

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