Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Mostly dry and cool weather can be expected through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Another cool night is underway across the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. Area observations note temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to around 30 under a mostly clear sky, with the exception of an area towards the Allegheny National Forest which remains under a stratus deck.

Deep troughing currently exists across eastern North America, with the upper-level low centered over eastern Quebec. Water vapor imagery shows another subtle shortwave trough rotating around this low, now moving across the southern tier of NY, with snow shower activity increasing across that area and northern PA as it does so. The tail end of the shortwave will rotate across the Pittsburgh forecast area, just enough such that cloud field should expand again. Wouldn't rule out some flurries towards the Allegheny NF, but dry near-surface air (characterized by dew point depressions near 10 degrees) will likely sublimate most flakes before reaching the surface.

Increased cloud cover and light WNW wind will keep temperatures up a few degrees warmer tonight than previous, with lows generally in the 20s (teens- typically colder locales).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... That passing shortwave is likely to repeat cloud and flurry pattern early on Saturday as the trough over the ern CONUS amplifies with phasing of a southern stream low. That high-amplitude, longwave trough will maintain cold and dry weather, with exception for aforementioned flurries, through the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper trough is expected to fill by Monday with a broad ridge projected over much of the country as deep low pressure digs off the west coast. This pattern will result in generally dry weather for the Upper Ohio, but with a warming trend until flow aloft backs to the southwest during the latter half of the week.

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