Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Isolated to scattered showers and seasonably cool temperatures today will be followed by dry conditions and a warming trend the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Northwest flow over the lakes will persist through the evening to around 06Z overnight with a passing trough. Showers will persist with the lingering daytime heating assisted by terrain and temp differential through the period. Cloud cover and limited instability should preclude thunder over the area so will only keep showers in the forecast.

The mentioned trough will finally exit NE over the course of the day with mainly dry conditions after 00Z as high pressure builds in from the west. Cloud cover will continue overnight with a more moist north to northeast flow which will keep cloud cover over the area a bit longer keeping low temperatures overnight a bit warmer than what might have been in northeast flow.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is anticipated from Thursday through at least Friday under building high pressure. Temperature will moderate through this period but will still remain at least 5 degrees below average at several climate sites. Upper level cloud cover will begin to increase late Friday night in advance of the remnants of Hurricane Ian.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weekend into early next week forecast will be solely dependent on the path of Hurricane Ian and its interaction with broad ridging/high pressure over the Midwest. Model consensus at this time has the system encroaching the region through the day Saturday and linger to the south before shifting east early Monday. This would result in intermittent light rain for most of the CWA. There is some concern with a slight westward jog of the low center that could lead to the potential of excessive rainfall along the PA/WV border and south for Sunday and Sunday night before the next upper level trough promptly shunts the feature off to the east. There are still a few model runs that keep the track south and east leading to less rainfall but the track mean has yielded more rainfall at this point. This track will need further monitoring.

The mentioned Mid-Latitude trough will continue to push through on the Monday and Tuesday time frame providing another round of showers enhanced by diurnal trends. High pressure then builds in once again by the middle of next week.

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