Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Periodic showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected through the morning with the approach and passage of a cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The overnight update will include timing the exit of the main area of storms and heavy rain and the onset of more showers ahead of the approaching occluded front. PoPs for the heavier activity will be created using a blend of radar trends and hires model guidance. The area approaching from the west will rely more heavily on model guidance for the PoPs. Radar and satellite trends are showing the line to the west decreasing as it approaches a rain cooled and more stabilized atmosphere. Hires guidance supports this trend as well. Temperatures were updated and cloud cover was tweaked.

Front finally clears to the east by early afternoon, and this will end the threat for showers or storms. Behind the front, the main concern will be strong winds. Current forecast soundings are showing rising mixing heights and atmospheric destabilization aloft, which will bring the strong winds aloft down to the surface. A couple of factors will work to hold winds below advisory criteria. First, the lack of strong cold air advection, and second, the lack of strong surface pressure rises.

Another warm day on tap, with temperatures slowly cooling behind the front.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Increasing clouds and the risk for a passing shower on Monday with the return of cold advection and northwest flow.

Building high pressure on Tuesday will promote drier conditions.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next chance for rain will be Wednesday as a disturbance passes to our south.

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