Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Shower and thunderstorm chance returns through Saturday with crossing low pressure.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Model consistency with the overnight period remains elusive. Ingredients are in place, instability and shear, but a trigger is lacking. Shortwave trough will move through late this evening, but it is weak and the 00Z sounding shows a capped atmosphere that will be tough to break at this time of the day. Lowered PoPs overnight to general chance and kept in the mention of thunder but only a slight chance. The rest of the night will remain warm and muggy.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Showers and thunderstorms are likely again Saturday as the slow- moving sfc cold front crossed the Upper Ohio Valley region. Deep- layer shear should continue to support severe thunderstorm potential, though to a lesser extent than is expected tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish Saturday night as the front continues swd and instability wanes, though a few showers/storms are still possible Sunday mainly S of PIT with that area in close proximity to the sfc front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday and Tuesday as a trough approaches from the Midwest, and crosses the region. Dry weather is expected to return by midweek as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Warmer than average temperatures should return to near or below seasonable levels after the passage of the early week trough.

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