Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue today. A cold front provides rain chances tonight and Saturday morning. High pressure will bring drier weather and cooler temperatures for later Saturday and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A Plains trough will rotate across the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning and the Great Lakes thereafter. Another warm day can be expected in the continued southerly flow. A surface low will accompany the shortwave into western Quebec by this evening. Associated frontal passage is still timed for tonight, with the front exiting shortly before dawn on Saturday. The first rain showers will arrive in eastern Ohio this evening, with PoPs areawide overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect precipitation coverage and intensity to drop off tonight as the front advances eastward, with little more than scattered showers southeast of Pittsburgh by sunrise Saturday.

Dry weather returns for Saturday afternoon and night with high pressure tracking across Michigan and southern Ontario. The quick push of cold advection will knock temperatures back to levels just below climatology for Saturday and Saturday night, with any further drop stunted by a return to southwest flow by Sunday morning.

Dry weather and relatively cool temperatures will continue on Sunday as the high tracks into New England.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A wetter pattern will develop for the first part of the new work week. A fresh trough will likely be carved over the Rockies and Plains Sunday and Monday, with the models now indicated a cutoff upper low developing in or near Texas by Wednesday. Meanwhile ridging will hang on near the southeast CONUS coast. In between these features, a warm and moist southwest flow regime will set up, bringing increased rain chances into at least Tuesday, and now possibly into Wednesday given the slower trend due to the cutoff. A frontal passage may then provide drier weather by Thursday, although details this far out remain murky.

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