Wisp Resort / McHenry

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McHenry, MD

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Building high pressure will keep the region dry through midweek, with a warming trend to above seasonal averages anticipated.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure will build over the region through the period. Residual low level moisture, trapped under strengthening inversion may support expansion of cloud cover near I-68 corridor. Elsewhere, some patchy fog may be possible, with light/calm wind, though high clouds from a passing shortwave over the southern Great Lakes may be a limiting factor for development.

Lows should be close to seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging will continue to build over the eastern US in response to a digging western trough. From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night, 500mb heights will remain anonymously high, between 580-590dm. 850mb temperatures around 16-19C seem to equate to high confidence of highs in the lower-to-mid 80s on Sunday, and the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. Clouds will also be minimal and winds will be light, allowing for effective daytime radiative surface heating. This may allow surface temperatures to warm 1-2 degrees more than their respective daytime adiabatic highs. Both high and low temperatures will remain approximately 5-15 degrees above average. The area will very likely remain precipitation free with subsidence.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... By mid-week, the ridge will begin to flatten. There is moderate confidence that seasonably warm temperatures will linger mid- week with a frontal passage late week, ushering in a new pattern. The timing of the frontal passage still has moderate uncertainty. By the end of next week, the 500mb pattern will reverse; there will be a building trough over the east, and a building ridge over the west. This suggests a return to seasonably cool conditions by the end of the forecast period.

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