Appalachian Ski Mountain

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Blowing Rock, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry high pressure will set up through our area through today before a Gulf Coast low pressure system passes mostly south of the region Friday night into Saturday, with minimal chance for rainfall. Canadian high pressure builds back into the area Sunday, maintaining warm, dry conditions through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 945 PM: A potent shortwave drops from the Mid-South to the Gulf Coast tonight. Skies are virtually overcast over the CWA attm, with cirrus having spread in downstream of it. A little unusual in terms of setup: seems some degree of dynamic lift ahead of the low, combined with low level covergence along an inverted surface trough over Georgia, will produce light precip mainly in the Savannah River Valley and adjacent areas. Low-level saturation kinda occurs out of nowhere at 925/850mb on the synoptic progs. Isentropic lift around those levels is shallow and overall it just doesn't look like a good setup for precip; the GFS has been generally the wettest model and so far appears to be overdone per AR/MS sfc obs. The CAMs continue to depict believable-looking light banded precip shifting into the southern CWA from the west overnight. Thinking the described moistening may be light precip falling from further aloft and bringing the low levels near saturation. See no need to change current PoPs/Wx grids in light of the newest guidance; will maintain only sprinkles over the SW zones where blended PoPs are highest; chance of accumulation still too small to mention as showers. Did take another look at overnight T/MinT/Td; made some slight adjustments hour-to-hour.

The short wave moves south of the area and to our east Saturday taking the moisture and forcing with it. Expect clearing skies through the day. The early clouds and cool air mass will keep highs a few degrees below normal. Maintaining lower dew points vice the usual guidance blend given the continued dry air mass over the area. Max T fcst still is on track; no change there. Uncertain if another Fire Danger Statement will be needed for NE GA as the cooler temps keep any sub-25% RH values less than the required 4 hours. That said, RH will again be very low but winds should be on the light side, keeping us from reaching Red Flag Warning category.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 117 pm Friday: The rest of the weekend and into early next week continues to look cool and very dry as we remain under a deep N/NW flow as the axis of a mean mid/upper level trof slowly moves off the East Coast. A fairly rigorous-looking short wave will drop down into the trof on Saturday night and Sunday morning, but this feature will be extremely moisture-starved with little more than a patch of mid-level clouds to note its passage. At the sfc, dry high pressure will continue to dominate, with dewpoints probably mixing out each afternoon and RH falling down around 20 pct Sunday and 25 pct Monday. Temps should be about a category below normal Sunday, but then right around normal Monday as the air mass continues to modify.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2:30 pm Friday: Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Carolinas and heights will build in response to a trough digging across the desert southwest Monday night into Thursday. Friday the high pressure center slides off the East Coast but will continue to ridge back into the Southeastern US while a trough stretching from from the Great Lakes region into the Northeastern US digs southward. High temps will gradually warm throughout next week. Highs be about 5 to 10 degrees above average for Tuesday and Wednesday becoming about 10 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday.

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