Appalachian Ski Mountain

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Blowing Rock, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... An area of high pressure will linger over the region today. A cold front with rain showers will approach the area from the west on Friday and move through the region on Saturday. Cool high pressure returns on Sunday through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM: An upper ridge builds over the area today as the center of surface high pressure slides east across the area. Although thicknesses rise and a light southerly flow develops, periods of thick cirrus will keep highs in check slightly. Still, this should put highs up to 5 degrees above normal. The flow becomes more zonal tonight as an upper low moves across the Great Lakes pushing a cold front into the Ohio Valley. The flow turns more southwesterly bringing some deeper moisture and forcing into the mountains after midnight. Breezy conditions may develop across the higher elevations. Have a small area of chance PoP moving into the TN border counties toward daybreak. Clouds will thicken and lower across the entire area overnight. Lows will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, keeping any precip that does develop all liquid.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Thursday: An upper trough will swing thru the Great lakes and Northeast Friday, while a closed low crosses the Central Plains. A low pressure system associated with the upper trough will push a cold front thru the Ohio valley and Central Appalachians, possibly reaching the VA/NC border by Friday evening. The forecast area should remain mild, with increasing clouds on Friday. Some showers may develop within increasing SWLy flow across the mountains, but chances will be lower to the east. Highs will be a couple categories above normal.

The model trends seem to be for the aforementioned front to sag further south and backdoor into the NC piedmont Friday night then stall. This will result in a tighter temp gradient across the forecast area from north to south. The front will also be a focus for increased shower chances in addition to the overall upglide. The southern stream low pick up speed and open up into a deep trough as it crosses the eastern states on Saturday. The associated sfc low will track from the Lower MS Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic states. The low will push a cold front thru the forecast area during the day on Saturday. The front will be strongly forced, and have 1.5" pwat air with it. So could see a band of some moderate to heavy rain showers cross the area. Dry antecedent conditions and a fairly progressive fropa should limit the excessive rain threat. With that said, some SWLY upslope areas will likely get 1-3" of QPF in a 6-12 hour period. So a marginal Day 3 excessive rain threat has been posted by WPC. The 00z GFS and NAM both show a band of 100-300 J/kg of sbCAPE with the front. Confidence is still low, but will introduce a slight chc of thunder Saturday aftn in the western and southern zones. Given the strong shear and forcing, this could result in a non-zero severe threat. Will continue to monitor trends. Temps will tricky due to the fropa, but should start out above normal in the south, and cool to near normal Saturday night.

It's still looking like only a few hours of NW flow shower activity may linger late Saturday night, with the higher peaks seeing a few flakes of snow before the moisture dissipates around daybreak Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday: Quiet weather returns to the area on Sunday (with some lingering clouds and gusty winds in the NC mountains). Temps will top out at or slightly below normal under mostly sunny skies. The pattern remains progressive with high pressure crossing the area Monday, followed by the next cold front approaching the area on Tuesday. There is still some disagreement on the details on this next storm system, but the 00z EC and GFS agree on a cold front and associated band of precip crossing the forecast area late Tuesday thru early Wednesday. Temps moderate back to slightly above normal, and precip is expected to be all rain.

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