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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A low pressure system off the Southeast coast will move slowly away from the eastern seaboard tonight. Dry and cool high pressure will spread in from the west on Friday and linger over the region through the weekend. A vigorous low pressure system will move through the Plains on Monday and spread moisture back across the southeast. Conditions will remain unsettled through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 105 am Friday: the Winter Wx Advisory was allowed to expire at midnight for the remaining Piedmont zones and an SPS for black ice is now in effect through the mid/late morning based on when temps are expected to warm above freezing. We didn't get as much snow accumulation as expected, so we won't have as much lingering on road surfaces. Plus, winds are picking up from the north and should remain steady overnight. Therefore, black ice is expected to be more patchy than widespread.

Other than that, low pressure was organizing further off the southeast coast early this evening, while an impressive 1043 mb high over the Plains was sending colder air on breezy northerly winds. Temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s for most places overnight. This combined recent rain and snow may lead to black ice. Sunny skies with breezy northerly winds are expected for Friday with below normal temperatures, especially with lingering snow cover focused across the mountains.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Thursday: Dry and chilly high pressure will set up over the region Friday night and linger through the weekend. Anticipate little more than some high clouds returning through Sunday ahead of the next central CONUS low pressure system. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below climo on Saturday, but closer to climo on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Thursday: A vigorous low pressure system will sweep from the Plains to the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Tuesday. Deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream across the southeast ahead of this system to bring PoPs back in Sunday night, and then provide some heavy rain potential at times Monday into Monday night. Uncertainty remains fairly high, but 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals are quite possible, with higher amounts in southwest upslope mountains areas. Fortunately, instability looks very limited as the 40 to 50 kt southerly jet transits the region late Monday.

A weak cold frontal passage should occur Tuesday, but with any drying quite limited through Tuesday night as additional strong height falls occur back over the central CONUS. Will keep chancy shower PoPs going through Wednesday ahead of the next, stronger front. Very cold air will sweep across the region from the west late Wednesday through Thursday, with scattered mountain snow showers possible.

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