Banner Elk

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Banner Elk, NC

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Highway 184
Lees McRae College
Echota Hwy 105

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Daily showers and thunderstorms will steadily become more numerous as the week progresses. High temperatures of a couple degrees above normal early in the week will become near to below normal by the end of the week under considerable cloud cover.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM: Scattered showers continue across the SW NC mountains, on track to move toward the upper Savannah Valley and western Upstate. More vigorous activity seemingly driven by a weak shortwave ripple or MCV, is ongoing over East TN. The progged movement of the MCV-like feature should lead to expanding convection across the SW half of our CWA thru mid to late afternoon. Revised PoPs reflect the hi-res model consensus, now with areas of high chance to likely PoP mainly SW of I-26 and eventually across the eastern Upstate. Gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible within storms, while a few strong to severe downbursts can't be ruled out. Expect max temps to top out near normal, if not a degree or two above.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 am Monday: The synoptic pattern will remain typically nebulous across the southeast Atlantic states through the short term, with a weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to persist. Moisture will steadily increase across the region, with precipitable water values likely pushing 2 inches by the end of the period. This will support a daily uptick in diurnal convective chances, such that likely pops are carried across much of the forecast area by Wed afternoon and evening. It's not obvious that there will be much of a threat of pulse severe storms, especially considering the increasingly moist/low downdraft CAPE nature of the profiles. Nevertheless, the increase in targets of opportunity will probably support the potential for a handful of microburst-producers through the period. Heavy/locally excessive rainfall will likely be the greater concern in light of the increasing potential for warm rain processes, especially later in the period when forecast soundings indicate steering flow decreasing to less than 5 kts. Temps are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than climo through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 am Monday: Very little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the medium range, with a weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to persist over the Southeast, possibly evolving into more of a standard upper trough toward next weekend. Very moist conditions will otherwise persist in the stagnant pattern, supporting high coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day through the period. While this coverage will be tied to the diurnal heating cycle, with generally 60-70% chances forecast each afternoon, the pattern will support some degree of convective coverage beyond the normal afternoon/evening time frame. While there is no obvious organized heavy rainfall signal in this patter, there will certainly be a threat for localized excessive rainfall/flash flooding each day, with perhaps a slight uptick in the threat each day as antecedent conditions steadily deteriorate. Max temps are forecast to be near to slightly below climo and min temps a degree or two above normal through the period.

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