... Dry and cool air will mix in from the northwest today and linger through Monday. By Wednesday, muggy and warm air moves in with thunderstorms expected each afternoon into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1045 AM EDT Sunday: A much-needed quiet day on tap. Forecast still well on track.
Drier air continues to gradually filter into the area in the wake of a cold front, with 50s dewpoints (40s across portions of the mountains) expected through the bulk of the near term. The result will be virtually 0 surface-based instability across the area this afternoon. Nevertheless, moisture trapped beneath an inversion based in the 050-10 kft range should allow for a healthy ridge-top cu field, and can't rule out a few brief, low-topped showers developing here and there along the Blue Ridge. However, pops there are around 20% at best. Otherwise, fair conditions are expected through the period, with thickness values supporting temps around 5 degrees cooler than climo.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...Another pleasant day on tap Mon as sfc hipres continues to work down the Atl Coast. This high will reinforce the dry airmass with mixed td/s and hold max temps abt 5-8 degrees below normal. Precip chances will be negligible as a stg subs inversion persists and allows for mainly fair-wx Cu during the afternoon. On Tue...the atmos begins to modify as the sfc high center settles offshore and ridges west. This pattern will increase moist trans off the GOM and allow max temps to reach right arnd normal levels, while relative humidity increase a bit as well. Still, not a bad day and diurnal convec will once again be nullified underneath a persistent and stg subs zone aloft.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sunday...The pattern continues to be dominated by stg ridging aloft to the begin the period as the llvl flow becomes defined sw/ly. This will maintain abv normal temps each day as sfc td/s increase to make for muggy feeling conds each afternoon. The upper ridge to the north breaks down Thu as a h5 s/w trof dives out of wrn Canada...and good agreement is had btw the GEFS members that an associated backdoor front will push south toward the FA Thu and become stationary in weakening w/ly flow aloft. With the sfc bndry close by and continued moist GOM flow arnd the Atl ridge, expect convec to break thru a weak subs inversion each afternoon. The convec mode will be pulse stg/svr and confined mainly to the NC mtns, however, activity shud increasingly develop outside the mtns Fri and Sat as the front sags a little further south while the Atl sfc ridge weakens somewhat. The Canadian model is an obvious outlier with developing a trop cyclone in the central GOM by the end of the week, yet with broad weakness predicted in the sub-trop ridge, cyclonic development is not out of the question.