... Cool and dry high pressure will linger over our region into Monday then modify. A warming trend is then expected through mid week before another cold front with limited moisture crosses the area late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM: The Frost Advisory for late tonight into early Monday morning has been expanded to the remainder of the North Carolina mountains and northern foothills.
Relatively quiet weather on tap into Monday. The broad trough that was near the East Coast will slide well off the coast into Monday. Despite full sunshine today highs will only top out in the 60s to near 70, except 50s above about 2500 feet in elevation. Breezy northwest winds will subside this evening as the best upper support departs the region and surface pressure gradients continue to relax. Surface high pressure building into the region behind the departing trough will set the stage (clear skies with winds dropping off) for likely the coldest overnight lows of the season with widespread 30s across the mountains and foothills and near 40 elsewhere. The newly expanded Frost Advisory should cover the areas of greatest threat for frost, although patchy frost is also possible east of the mountains, especially for sheltered or low lying areas. Remember to protect any sensitive plants or animals. Slowly building heights and thicknesses associated with an approaching ridge from the west and sunny skies will support highs returning to, if not above normal by Tuesday ranging from the 60s in the mountains to low to mid 70s east of the mountains. Dry air mixing in from aloft this afternoon and again Monday will support min relative humidity in the mid 20s to around 30 east of the mountains and support continued dry fuels. However, it appears that we will fall short of any fire weather product thresholds.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Sunday: The short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Tuesday with broad upper trofing moving off the Atlantic Coast as broad upper ridging spreads farther eastward and into our fcst area. Heights will continue to steadily rise thru the period, with upper ridging remaining over the region thru the period. At the sfc, expansive high pressure will be centered over the Southeast as the period begins. It will gradually shift eastward through the period and should be centered just offshore by the end of the period, late Wed. Expect abundant sunshine each day with temps warming thru the period. By Wed, highs are expected to top out about a category above normal.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on Thursday with flattened upper ridging in place over the region as an embedded, closed, upper low makes its way eastward across the Northern Plains. On Thursday, the low opens back up to the mean flow as broader upper trofing amplifies north of the Great Lakes. For the remainder of the period, some degree of broad upper trofing is expected to remain over the NE CONUS as upper ridging persists to our west. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered just off the Southeast Coast as a cold front approaches the fcst area from the west. The latest guidance has the front moving through our CWA late Thursday into early Friday and then offshore by late Friday. In its wake, broad Canadian high pressure will spread back over the region from the NW and remain in place thru day 7. Temps will start out above climo on Thursday and cool to near climo (if not slightly below) by the weekend.