Beech Mountain

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Beech Mountain, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will move north of the region today, then to our east on Sunday. A weak cold front will push in from the northwest by Sunday evening, stalling over the area Monday, before lifting back north as a warm front on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will cross the region on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM: A band of light radar returns across the I-26 corridor and eastern Upstate is associated with a weak area of enhanced vort rounding the upper ridge. Moisture is shown to diminish with time, so whatever light precip is reaching the ground now should become even less notable through midday. This is mainly reflected in the fcst as sprinkles, but a small chance of a shower producing 0.01-0.02" does exist mainly over the Upstate for a couple more hours.

Otherwise, fair weather will continue for the next 24 hours with dampening upper ridge overhead, supporting weak high pressure to the north. A chunk of the high eventually breaks off over the Carolinas tonight. High temps should be similar to Friday, although with more high cloud cover, it won't be as pretty of a day. Model guidance has thicker high cloud cover moving in tonight, so min temps will be above normal. If there is a concern for the near term, once again it will be minimum RH this afternoon, but it should not be as low as Friday. Furthermore the light precip this morning has given dewpoints a boost in portions of the area, which should limit the time window that RH will be critically low. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more info.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday: the short-term fcst begins at 12z on Sunday with broad upper ridging over the area. The upper ridge is expected to remain over the region thru the period and into the extended period. At the surface, a weak cold front will move thru the CWFA from the NW on Sunday. The models push the front offshore on Monday and move relatively dry high pressure back over the area. By early Tuesday, the high shifts SE which puts our area back under warming SLY flow as a broad plume of deeper moisture spreads over the CWFA from the west. As for the sensible fcst, PoPs will follow a diurnal pattern on both Sunday and Monday with the best chances over the higher terrain. Temps will remain above normal thru the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 AM EDT Saturday: the extended forecast picks up at 12z on Tuesday with broad upper ridging still over the Southeast and a vigorous closed h5 low developing over Southern California. On Wednesday, the upper ridge will flatten over our region and on Thursday, another broad upper trof digs down across the Great Lakes. Beyond this point, the long-range models diverge considerably wrt the large-scale upper pattern. The GFS, and to a lesser extent the CMC, develop a massive upper trof and move it across the the entire Eastern CONUS on Fri/Sat. The ECMWF, however, maintains flat upper ridging over the Southeast and keeps the upper trof relegated to our north. At the sfc, a broad plume of deep-layer moisture associated with a weak cold front will be moving into the fcst area from the SW as the period begins early Tuesday. By early Wednesday, the front is expected to be east of the CWFA with the deeper moisture pushed offshore. Beyond this point, the operational models diverge considerably. The GFS develops a deep low over the Southern Plains and quickly moves it NE pushing a strong cold front thru our area early Fri. In the front's wake, it spreads drying high pressure over the CWFA for the remainder of the period. The ECMWF on the other hand, moves a dry cold front quickly thru the fcst area on Thursday with Canadian high pressure spreading back over the area in the front's wake. I didn't change PoPs much early in the period but I did increase them for Fri and Sat, although if the ECMWF pans out, we'll likely stay dry during that period. Otherwise, temps will run well above climatology thru Thursday, before cooling back down closer to normal, if not below, for Fri and Sat.

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