Blowing Rock Weather

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Blowing Rock, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry conditions will be in store, followed by a moderating southerly flow of air on Sunday. High pressure building in on Monday keeps sunshine in the forecast with maximum temperatures close to the late January normal. Better precipitation chances enter the forecast by Tuesday before broad Canadian high settles over the area during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1235 AM: Quiet across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia for a change. SPS remains in place where patchy black ice may redevelop on some roads.

Otherwise...min temps look colder than last night owing to better radiational conditions, though this development will offset the cooling especially over our southwestern zones. The northern and eastern fringes of the CWA will dip to around if not below 20. Can't completely rule out some patchy fog given small dewpoint depressions in portions of the CWA, and a couple of hi-res models depicting such development. With deeper SW flow developing Sunday and further modification, max temps look to rise back to about climo.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EST Saturday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft will set up shop over the eastern CONUS during the short term. Waves of shortwave energy diving down from the northwest will provide the chance for upslope snow showers over the northwest facing slopes along the TN border Sunday night, but little to no accumulations are expected. Dry weather will be in store Monday into Monday night as weak surface ridging develops and plentiful sunshine will allow for temperatures to return back to near normal values. Mid to high clouds will slowly build in from the southwest later Monday as a southern stream shortwave develops and pushes vorticity advection into the area. The associated surface low develops over the Gulf of Mexico along a stalled frontal boundary as the southern stream trough zips across the Deep South. Guidance continues to suppress this system further south with each run which could leave the CFWA mostly dry Tuesday, but not going to go completely dry unless more future runs incorporate the same idea. The deeper moisture available remains south of the area, while temperatures stay above freezing, so only the higher peaks would have a true snow mention in this forecast if precipitation makes it this far north. Otherwise, broad Canadian high begins to control the overall weather pattern Tuesday night as the surface high sinks into the central CONUS and tracks towards the area during the extended. Temperatures will be close to what the normal value is for mid to late January.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday: Broad Canadian high will sink towards the CFWA Wednesday with a good amount of low-level CAA, which will drop temperatures to slightly below normal readings. Gusty winds will be in store as well, especially over the mountains as the surface high continues to slide from the Upper Great Lakes through the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday. Global models continue to produce a positively tilted upper trough from the Hudson Bay through the central High Plains during the middle part of next week and swing the trough towards the eastern CONUS by the end of next week. At the surface, low pressure develops along a stalled boundary near the western Gulf Coast and pushes through the Gulf of Mexico and tracks near the southeast coastline by next weekend. Weak in-situ CAD may develop ahead of the system from the aforementioned surface high as it tracks into the western Atlantic and establish colder air in the boundary layer. The current scenario is that the trough will sharpen as it crosses the MS River and into the East Coast. The GFS develops an almost closed low over the southeastern CONUS as the surface low tracks up the Carolina Coast, producing a classic Miller A type system. On the other hand, the ECMWF has a similar set up but keeps the surface low farther offshore and is more progressive with the system. A lot more questions than answers at this time, but definitely a pattern to keep an eye on through the next 6-7 days. Otherwise, the extended will be quiet for the most part with temperatures near or slightly below normal through majority of the medium range.

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