Blowing Rock Weather

Blowing Rock, NC

INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

Currently

Temperature 21.24°F
Feels Like 8.64°F
Humidity 70%
Pressure 1014mb
Wind 24.16mph from the WNW
Broken clouds 21°F Broken clouds
Overnight Partly Cloudy
Low: 47°F
Tuesday Sunny
High: 47°F Low: 34°F
Wednesday Sunny
High: 54°F Low: 33°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 54°F Low: 36°F
Friday Light Rain Likely
High: 41°F Low: 40°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Gusty west winds and low relative humidity levels will persist today as the Mid-Atlantic remains situated between deep low pressure to the north, and a large area of high pressure over the southern Plains. A dry cold front will pass across the central Appalachians on Wednesday afternoon. The next chance for widespread rainfall is expected for Friday when low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Gusty west winds and dry conditions will persist today. Warmer with increased sunshine

2. Fire Danger Statement is in effect for counties across southeast West Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina today from 11 am through 8 pm.

3. Winds diminish slightly for tonight under mostly clear skies. Not as chilly.

Radar indicates that snow shower activity from earlier this evening has ended, and winds are gradually shift more from the west as another deep low pressure system develops over the northern Great Lakes. Clouds remain in place across the mountains this morning, though satellite imagery indicates gaps developing in the cloud cover.

For today, winds will shift increasingly southwesterly in response to another low pressure system pushing east across the northern Great Lakes, with an associated cold front advancing southward toward the Ohio River Valley and, eventually, the Appalachian chain. The southwesterly wind shift will help erode the mountain cloudcover such that much of it is expected to have dissipated by early afternoon. The combination of increased sunshine, downslope windflow and very dry air (relative humidity approaching 20 percent for much of the service area) in place will allow for warmer temperatures today, ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge, to the mid/upper 50s further east. Winds will remain gusty today, with gusts ranging from 25 mph to locally 40 mph, especially across the higher mountain ridges.

The combination of dry air, gusty winds, and dry fuels such as leaf litter, dead grasses, etc makes for an increased danger of fires starting more easily and potentially burning out of control. As such, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the entire region today from 11 am through 8 pm. This is to advise people to avoid any outdoor burning, and to be extra cautious with any tools or equipment that may generate a flame of spark.

The dry air and mostly clear skies will allow allow winds to diminish somewhat late tonight, the gusts will persist. Overnight temperatures will not be as cool, generally falling into the 30s for most of the region.

Confidence in the near term is high.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Windy conditions Wednesday and Wednesday night. 2. Potential fire weather concerns with the gusty winds and expected low humidity 3. Weaker winds but still dry for Thursday.

An upper level trough axis pivots over the Appalachians Wednesday, pushing a cold front over the region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will take temporary residence over the Gulf States, blocking moisture from moving northward through Thursday. With limited moisture advection, no precipitation is expected, possibly very little cloud cover as well. Deep westerly flow and moderate pressure rises (7-10mb/6hrs) will bring windy and gusty conditions to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. One factor against issuing any wind headlines is that the strongest pressures rises do not line-up when the stronger cold air advection occurs.

Following the frontal passage, dry high pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night, then over the northeastern states Thursday. This high pressure system will then wedge south into the Carolinas Thursday night.

Wednesday's temperatures peak ahead of the dry cold front in the mid to upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge and mid to upper 60s east. Behind the front, Thursday's high temperatures return to normal readings.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 222 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain chances Friday into Friday night. 3. Dry Saturday into Tuesday with a warming trend.

A wedge of cold air will sink south into the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track over the Ozarks Thursday night to the southern Appalachians mountains Friday. The surface low associated with this system will move across northern FL and then off the GA/SC coast. On Friday, moisture from this low pressure system will overrun the wedge, bringing a round of rain to the area. This rain should enhance the wedge, keeping the track of the surface low away from our forecast area. Confidence is increasing for a good soaking rain Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Cold high pressure will follow in the wake of the low tracking north along the east coast Saturday night into Sunday. Dry weather could linger into Tuesday,

With rain falling into a cold dry wedge Friday, temperatures will be quite chilly, ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. The wedge is expected to break on Saturday, sending temperatures back into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Above normal temperatures likely through Tuesday.

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