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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure over the Southern Plains moves east into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning, spreading light rain into the region by tonight. The low tracks along a front stalled through the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Wednesday, prolonging the chance of rain in the region, but warming temperatures. The cycle repeats Thursday and Friday with another low and more precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM EST Monday...

...Increasing clouds with rain possible west of I-77 by this afternoon...

Band of high thin clouds was bisecting the forecast area generally from WNW to ESE along a mid level warm front. Any rain was still developing farther west in TN and WV, and will gradually spread east with time. Onset of rainfall west of I-77 looks to be later afternoon/early evening for most, while areas east of there will be later tonight. Expecting spotty showers most of the evening with light QPF amounts, with increasing coverage after midnight.

Temperatures at 11 AM were still cool in the 30s and 40s, but will increase another 10 degrees or so by the end of today in warm air advection.

As of 225 AM EST Monday...

Slowing down rain until this evening.

Satellite images indicated high clouds streaming over the mountains early this morning. Low clouds were spread north just along the eastern slope of the Blue Ridge through North Carolina. Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the day with clouds heights lowering as the atmosphere saturates from the top down.

Models is good agreement slowing down the arrival of the rain this afternoon and evening. Backing up the leading edge of the rain to near Mt. Rogers and west of Wilkesboro instead of into the New River Valley by 00Z/7PM. Coverage of rain after 00Z/7PM may be spotty but more fills in after midnight.

Northwest North Carolina mountains and foothills will have clouds the longest today so will trend maximum temperatures slightly below guidance. NBM is reasonable for the rest of the area. Rising surface dew points and cloud cover will limit drop in temperature overnight. Plus warm air advection along the ridges will push the temperatures up. Will have a non-diurnal trend for hourly temperatures overnight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Monday...

Rainy...

Lift ahead of and along a warm front will continue to force rain to fall for much of the forecast area through Wednesday Night. Rain will be more or less continuous for our mountain areas west of the Blue Ridge, especially in far southwest VA and eastern WV. This will also be where the heaviest storm total rainfall amounts will be, with the highest amounts over 1.5", but most mountain areas closer to 0.75-1.25". Further east toward the Piedmont, rain will be less consistent and lighter. Not expecting flooding concerns for any part of the forecast area given the extended period over which this rain will fall.

Temperatures will be mild with southwest flow, with highs reaching into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1228 PM EST Sunday...

Unsettled with potential for dry weather around Friday night- Saturday night...

Do not see any consistency in the models in terms of the synoptics aloft and surface reflections but enough agreement with ensembles and blends to offer a good chance of rain Wed night into Friday. Still looks like temperatures stay warm enough to keep it all rain, though colder air filters in Friday night for possible snow showers in the mountains before drier air briefly returns.

5h shortwave ridge builds across Saturday, then we start to see indications of an upper trough pushing southeast across the upper midwest into the TN Valley underneath a blocking ridge over Greenland and Maritime Canada. The ECMWF/GFS are somewhat close in bringing the next threat of precip in to close out the weekend, but could be delayed until Monday. There are differences at the surface with GFS showing a weak low over the TN Valley and warm front bisecting our area Sunday afternoon, while the ECMWF has a strong cold front stretched from Wisconsin to the Gulf Coast. The Canadian at the surface is closer to the ECMWF. For now will have chance of rain Sunday into Sunday night, mixed with snow, but confidence in the forecast beyond Saturday is low.

Temperatures above normal into Friday night drop back closer to normal over the weekend.

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