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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A weak cold front should bring snow showers to southeast West Virginia late this afternoon and evening. The front stalls to our south Monday while weak high pressure pushes in. Another front moves in by Tuesday with limited moisture.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM EST Sunday...

Back To Normal Temperatures Today With A Light Snow Accumulation In The WV Mountains By This Evening...

We will stay in a 5h trough through this period, but low level temperatures warm enough today with southwest flow ahead of a front to allow temperatures to reach close to normal: mid 30s to around 40 west, to mid to upper 40s southeast. Sunshine will be more abundant later this morning, than in the afternoon, with clouds increasing ahead of the front. This should allow for more melting of snow cover, which has hardened quite a bit due to temperatures staying below freezing, mainly in the mountains the past week.

The front is expected to move in from the northwest late this afternoon, with best track of vort at 5h favoring more snow shower chances across northern Va/WV, with limited snow across our area. Still will be enough lift to generate scattered snow showers with a up to an inch possible by late this evening in the higher ridges of western Greenbrier County, to a dusting further south across Mercer County.

The front becomes more west-east oriented tonight and parallel with the upper flow allowing it to stall across NC, with high pressure working into the central Appalachians. Any measurable snow showers should be gone before midnight though skies never quite clear, except some decrease in clouds north of I-64 and U.S. 60 east of the mountains. Keeping lows at or just below normal, with mid teens to around 20 west, to mid 20s east.

Forecast confidence is average on snowfall late this afternoon/evening in the mountains and on cloud cover, and above average on temps/winds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Weak high pressure will move over the area Monday, then slide southeast into the Carolinas Monday. Also on Monday, a cold front will move away from the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This front is caught in zonal flow and will likely stall over the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. The front approaches the area Tuesday afternoon, but residual dry air should keep most of the area precipitation-free through the day. Western slopes of southeast West Virginia will have a chance to see light precipitation Tuesday afternoon and night with liquid equivalent amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Precipitation should dry up moving east to the Blue Ridge.

Increasing cloudiness will help keep Monday's and Tuesday's temperatures close to normal. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 40s east. A dry Arctic front drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Very cold air from this system will start edging into the area Wednesday. Highs across the mountains may not make it above freezing, while the east only warms into the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

A mammoth area of high pressure (near 1040 mb as it crosses from Canada into the northern Plains), is expected to expand south and east across the central and eastern CONUS for mid- week bringing another round of bitter cold. The airmass is similar to the last one with temperatures of M20-M30 deg C across the Great Lakes and Ontario and M10 to M20 degrees C into the Ohio Valley and New England. The mid- Atlantic will once again have an opportunity to test the single and sub-single digits (deg F) for overnight lows beginning Wednesday night with daytime highs failing to climb above freezing. Thursday appear to be the coldest day with some moderation toward the weekend. Another complex northern stream and southern stream shortwave tag-up is possible for Friday (per GFS)...but if past trends are a reflection, the southern stream feature may once again get suppressed.

There always seems to be a model member that forecasts a Stormageddon in the long range... so be careful little eyes what you see. The chicken littles will come out to play. At some point the outlier will be right, but keep in mind a blind squirrel will find an acorn given a little time.

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