Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... High pressure will gradually build across the region through the weekend. Aside for some scattered cloud cover at times, expecting mainly dry conditions. The weather pattern will remain essentially unchanged through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
- Scattered clouds. Isolated showers.
High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes and New England, with low pressure along the New England and Mid- Atlantic Coasts. Still dealing with areas of cloud cover over parts of the Mid-Atlantic, so until the area of high pressure builds firmly into the area, expecting occasional cloud cover and isolated showers. In large part, the weekend will be dry, featuring seasonably cool nights and warm afternoons...but still being teased by the Low pressure along the coast with shallow layer of moisture under 700 mb.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure, surface and aloft, brings much improved weather conditions to the area for the weekend,
A strong and high amplitude 590 dm ridge will build from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. 850mb temperatures will warm from the single digit levels of the past several days into the mid-teens. Winds will back more to the north and help to pull drier air southward into the region.
High confidence in the Short Term Period.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- High pressure dominates through Thursday.
- Deepening trough and frontal system potentially bring significant weather to the region by next weekend.
Upper ridging is expected to remain over our area thru Midweek. At the surface, broad high pressure will slowly migrate southwestward from eastern Canada. The high center will push into the Atlantic ocean Thursday. Northerly surface winds will advect dry air into the region allowing for mostly sunny conditions.
Abundant sunshine and warming temperatures will help to offset the relatively cool northern flow through the period. Afternoon temperatures will trend a bit above normal, mostly in the 70s to near 80 in the Piedmont. The dry air and mostly clear nights, outside of morning valley/river fog, will allow for chilly nights with low temperatures in the 40s for most areas, 50s in larger cities such as Roanoke and many parts of the Piedmont.
Moderate confidence in the Long Term Period.