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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A large high pressure system will provide for a dry weekend. Wet weather is expected to return Monday as an area of low pressure moves northeast from the southern Plains, spreading clouds and rain back into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As OF 945 PM EST Friday...

Quiet weather for the overnight period as high pressure builds over the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region. Clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass should allow for good radiational cooling with most locations in the teens by daybreak Saturday.

The combination of extremely dry air and no cloud cover will allow large temperature swings from day to night. Overnight lows in the teens will quickly give way to 50s and clear skies on Saturday. This high pressure feature is a slow mover, so expect calm winds as well.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Friday...

An active long-wave pattern across the CONUS through the short- range period and beyond. The current trough along the east coast will be departing into the Atlantic with ridging surface and aloft building into the region. This will provide dry and mild conditions Sunday and into Monday. After a cool start, highs on Sunday will rebound into the 50s most areas with abundant sunshine. Meanwhile a closed low will be entering southern California early in the weekend and will advance into the desert southwest by Sunday and into the western Great Plains by early Monday. An attendant surface low will track northeast into the Ohio Valley and a swath of deeper moisture will be pushing northward along the eastern side of this feature with clouds entering the picture very early Monday and eventually precipitation after around 12z in the form of rain. Amounts do not look to be excessive at this point with the much higher amounts (1-2 inches) occurring well south of the southern Appalachian region, but 0.25 to 0.50 inches or so of QPF appears likely by the time precipitation ends late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Somewhat cooler Monday with clouds and possible rainfall, generally 40s to low 50s while Tuesday will see warmer temps as a warm from lifts north of the area with highs pushing 60F in the east and mid-50s west.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Friday...

A secondary cold front will cross the area later Wednesday with temperatures dropping sharply in the evening and overnight and h85 temps back down to around -10C by Thursday morning. Lows Thursday morning in the 20s to low 30s but with gusty northwest winds some rather chilly feeling conditions are likely. Uplsope snow showers in the favored mountain areas are also a good likelihood with possible accumulations as the surface system deepens to a near 990 mb low over New England and northwest flow strengthens. Temps will struggle to rise on Thursday especially across the west under the continued cold advection with highs from l/m 30s west to mid-40s east. Guidance indicates Friday will be the coldest day of the week with lows from upper teens west to mid- 20s east and highs from low 30s to mid-40s or roughly 5 to 10 degrees below late February climatology.

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