Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... Today a front will start to sag south from the OH River Valley, increasing the chance for showers across southeast West Virginia. This front and associated showers will lift north of the area tonight. A cold front will pass through the area Saturday, bringing showers and gusty winds to most of the CWA before a calmer Sunday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Currently showers are safely north of our northernmost counties of Greenbrier, WV and Bath, VA. Given the motion vector of storms to our west, do not expect this to change for quite some time. The stalled boundary looks to be far enough north that showers won't impact us until a wave moving along this boundary pulls it further south late this morning. Heaviest showers and even a slight chance of thunderstorms today will be relegated to an area north of a line between Summers County, WV and Rockbridge County, VA. An isolated shower may be produced as far south as the VA/NC state border, but these would be few and far between. A region of high pressure moving up the Atlantic Coast from Florida will help suppress activity in the southern portions of the CWA.
As the boundary retreats north later in the evening Friday, some pre- frontal showers ahead of a cold front to our west begin to form in the Mountain Empire and NC High Country overnight into Saturday. As we head to the early morning period Saturday, these pre-frontal showers will spread east across the CWA, while also experiencing a retreat in the north as that warm frontal boundary exits.
Temperatures will be far above normal Friday, with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s (60s for high elevations in Greenbrier). Overnight lows Friday night will be similar to what a normal high temperature might be this time of year; in the 50s, with some 60s for the Piedmont.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
Well above normal with rain chances early and also late in the weekend...
On Saturday a cold front will move through mainly during the morning hours, and exits the area by early afternoon, with clouds clearing from west to east. Winds Saturday will be gusty and approach 25 to 35 mph, and even higher for the ridges. Saturday through Monday temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the 60s to 70s. There is some question as to whether or not high pressure remains wedged enough to keep rain showers and clouds to our south on Monday, so for now went with a lower chance of rain.
Confidence in the short term forecast is low to moderate.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
...Few chances for light precipitation...
Monday night through Tuesday light overrunning precipitation develops as weak short wave energy crosses the area along with weak surface reflections. Whatever falls will be on the light side. By Wednesday morning a stronger short wave moves through the upper level flow, still staying to our north, but pushes a surface front through the region. Behind this deeper wave, high pressure pushes in with the colder air staying to our north. Skies clear out for Wednesday with a westerly wind.
No real cold air is behind this system, and temperatures should stay close to normal values or just under (low 50s to low/mid 60s for highs, 30s and 40s for lows).
Thursday will be warmer and dry with high pressure overhead and aloft, but another low pressure system will be deepening over the Plains, moving into the OH/TN Valleys on Friday, and bringing additional precipitation chances.
Confidence is moderate for most parameters of the long term forecast, but lower on precipitation timing.