... Dry high pressure will continue over our region into mid week with a warming trend. Expect temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal by the middle of the week. Clouds will increase on Thursday as a cold front drifts down from the northwest providing a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms which will continue into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: Quiet weather on tap through the near term forecast period as sfc high pressure builds across the Southeast. Daytime heating has allowed for widespread fair wx cu across much of the forecast area this afternoon. Cumulus should subside with the loss of daytime heating late this afternoon into early this evening. Highs today will be a few degrees below climo across the western NC mtns and near normal east of the mtns. The upper-level trough will push off the East Coast tonight while ridging builds over the Southeast. Mountain valley fog cannot be ruled out overnight into daybreak as good radiational cooling conditions along with calm to light and variable winds will be in place. Lows overnight will be near climo to a few degrees above climo. Heights will continue to build aloft while sfc high pressure gradually slides offshore Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. This will allow winds to gradually turn SE throughout the day. With return flow off the Atlantic, fair weather cu can be expected to develop again Sunday afternoon. High temps will be warmer on Sunday, climbing into the mid 80s east of the mtns and mid 70s to mid 80s across the mtns. Higher elevations will see slightly cooler highs. Highs on Sunday will be about 2-5 degrees above climo. so, overall it's looking like a beautiful weekend to be outdoors.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 pm EDT Saturday: Upper anticyclone is expected to be centered over eastern North Carolina at the start of the period, and will slowly retrograde to the southern Appalachians and vicinity by the end of the period. The result will be a suppressed and increasingly warm environment over the forecast area. Still can't rule out some isolated late day deep convection Mon and Tue afternoon/evening, especially over the mtns as moderate instability develops each day. Thus, slight chance PoPs are carried across western areas. Otherwise, temps will be above climo through the period...close to 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 pm EDT Saturday: Upper anticyclone will be centered west of the Appalachians at the start of the period, with associated elongated ridge axis extending north of the forecast area. This ridge will steadily break down through the first half of the extended, as short wave troughs round the base of a large upper low centered over Manitoba. A frontal zone associated with the most significant of these short waves is expected to approach the region Thu/Thu night. This will enhance mainly diurnal deep convective chances across the forecast area Thu into Fri, although based upon convective qpf response in global model guidance, these chances are capped in the chance range for now. With the airmass remaining somewhat suppressed under the upper ridge Wed, and drier air possibly filtering in behind the front for Saturday, Thu/Fri are bookended by a couple of days with slight-chance-at-best PoPs. Otherwise, much of the extended will be quite hot, with maxes expected to average 10 degree or more above climo Wed/Thu (widespread lower/mid 90s outside the mtns) before perhaps moderating a bit next weekend.