... Dry and very cold high pressure will settle over the region through Thursday. A low pressure system developing along the Gulf coast will increase rain chances for the end of the work week through the weekend, especially for the eastern half of the forecast area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 2:25 PM: the cold front continues to push farther east and is now south and east of the CWFA headed for the coast. The heavier rain has moved east of our fcst area with just some light showers lingering over our eastern-most zones. These should end over the next hour or two. Additional snow flurries are likely along the NC/Tenn Border as NW flow will remain robust thru late tonight. Low-lvl moisture will be the limiting factor, as it is expected to dwindle thru the evening. Additional accumulations during this time period should be light. With temperatures dropping quickly thru the evening, a flash freeze remains a concern for any areas that don't dry out across the higher terrain, especially above 3000 feet or so. Thus, the winter weather advisory for the higher terrain will continue thru tomorrow morning. For the remainder of the fcst area, most road surfaces should be able to dry out over the next several hours with skies clearing and winds remaining gusty thru the evening. Gusty NW winds up to 45 mph across the mountains and up to 30 mph elsewhere will produce wind chills in the single digits over the higher terrain and teens over the non-mtn zones, although values should remain above wind-chill advisory criteria. Low temps tomorrow morning will approach record low values, but should remain just above them. Otherwise, cold and dry high pressure will settle over the region tomorrow with with temps running 20 to 25 degrees below normal for mid-November.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Tuesday: A cold and dry arctic airmass will remain over the area on Thursday, with max and min temperatures still 15-20 degrees below average. A surface high pressure system moving off the NE coast will still exert some influence over the area on Thursday, though cloud cover will increase through the day as Gulf moisture filters in at mid-levels as an upper trough approaches. Though the track of a developing Gulf surface low has been uncertain for the past few days, guidance has some into better agreement that it will lift northeastward right along the coast of the Carolinas, close enough inland that the eastern half of our forecast area will receive plenty of moisture on the back side of the low. Though exact timing is uncertain, pops ramp up in earnest starting 00Z Friday to high-end chance overnight.
On Friday, the upper trough base and a closing upper low will swing towards the forecast area, placing the eastern half of the CWA in an area of upper diffluence/divergence aloft. This has the potential to increase rainfall rates/coverage during the morning on Friday, though again exact timing and QPF totals are still challenging to pin down. The good news is that it appears that the coldest air and the moisture will not see enough overlap in our area to produce any winter weather through the event. There is some suggestion that as the upper low crosses the forecast area on Saturday, there may be some QPF response in the southern zones of our CWA despite the main surface coastal low lifting up towards the northeast. The prospect of this last bit of upper forcing from the upper low producing QPF response seems dubious at best, though the ECMWF has hung onto it for the past few model runs. The public forecast therefore won't advertise it, but this could be a tricky part of the forecast over the next couple days. Max and min temperatures will rebound Friday and Saturday to levels just about 5 degrees below average
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 pm EST Tuesday: The departing, closed low off the southeast coastline on Saturday night should move safely away over the offshore waters through Sunday. Meanwhile, a longwave trough will carve out from the Rockies to the Plains, with shallow rigding in place over the forecast area through Sunday. Generally dry profiles and moderating temperatures will result, but a lingering cloud band could persist into Sunday along/east of I-77 depending on moisture wrapping west from the offshore low.
The deepening trough will likely go neutral tilt near the Mississippi River Valley on Monday, then lift across the southeast through Tuesday. A 100+ kt upper jet rounding the approaching trough Sunday night into Monday should produce divergence forcing mainly over the coastal plain of the Carolinas. Moisture return east of the trough is highly uncertain. There are some hints of weak, transient, moist upglide Monday or Monday night, but this might just produce clouds and little to no precipitation. Will thus keep PoPs capped in the slight chance range early next week. Temperatures will continue to slowly rebound, but generally remain 5 to 10 degrees below climo on Monday and at least a category below on Tuesday.