Cataloochee Ski Area

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Maggie Valley, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure is forecast to bring tropical moisture to the Southeast during the first half of the work week, likely resulting in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. A more typical summertime pattern is expected to return for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1205 PM: Minor adjustments made to temperatures/present wx to coincide with latest trends as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. All fog from earlier today has dissipated with only a few light showers to mention attm across the northern mountains and even just east of the I-77 corridor. Otherwise, conditions remain quiet with passing clouds. Current temperatures range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, cooler across the mountains.

Previous discussion: Today looks similar to yesterday with a very nebulous upper level and sfc pattern across the Southeast. A weak boundary currently draped NW-SE over central NC will be a focus for slightly higher coverage of convection across the NC Piedmont this aftn. Also, guidance shows an overall uptick in CAPE. So expect an overall increase in PoPs today, highest north and lowest south. The environment will support pulse mode with a couple of damaging microbursts possible. Also, storm motions are still very slow, so isolated excessive rain and a small flash flood threat will exist. Temps will be a degree or two above normal.

Tonight, convection is expected to wane gradually thru the evening, but a light SE low-level flow will help support isolated cells well into the overnight. A weak area of low pressure will begin to develop along the central Gulf Coast, with advecting some increasing moisture into the forecast area from the south. Lows will be a couple degrees above normal under partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 am Sunday: Increasingly active convective weather is expected during the short term, as a quasi-tropical disturbance moves from the Deep South to the coastal Carolinas through the period. Tropical moisture will slowly overspread the forecast area from the south beginning Monday. This will enhance diurnal chances for deep convection Monday, with many areas across upstate SC and northeast GA seeing likely pops by the end of the day. With tropical moisture likely encompassing virtually the entire forecast area by Tue, likely to even categorical pops appear warranted during the afternoon and evening. While there will be a diurnal trend to coverage and intensity of convection, some degree of coverage will likely continue through Mon night and at least part of Tue night, although a consensus of model guidance suggests the richer moisture will begin exiting the area by the end of the period. With PWATs expected to increase to as high as 2 inches along with a weak E/SE low level flow and weak steering currents, localized excessive rainfall will be a concern through much of the period, especially across the southern half of the area. Very moist conditions and easterly flow will support above normal min temps and below normal maxes through the period. This will especially be the case on Tue, when highs are forecast to top out around 10 degrees below climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 am Sunday: A consensus of global model guidance remains quite consistent in allowing precipitable water values to steadily return to more typical levels for the time during the first half of the medium range, as semi-tropical disturbance is forecast to lift steadily northeast along the Carolina coast. Sufficient moisture is expected to linger on Wed to support one more day of above-climo/ likely pops for mostly afternoon/evening convection. The remainder of the forecast period will feature more typical July weather, with scattered convection closely following the diurnal heating cycle. Max temps are expected to return to normal across much of the area by Thursday, likely rising above normal for the latter half of the period. Mins temps will remain slightly above climo.

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