... Another low pressure riding along a stationary front as it crosses northern Florida may bring a little more rain on Thursday. Drier high pressure will build into the region from the north by Thursday night and continue through the weekend with a slow warming trend. Expect warmer weather next week with chances of rain returning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1025 pm EDT Wednesday: Any lingering precip has ended across the area with bkn to ovc cloud cover still persisting over most of the CWA. Cool to cold air will lower some temps to near freezing over the higher elevations with some frost possible, especially from Avery to Haywood Counties, where dewpts will be in the upper 20s and skies will be clearing thru the overnight. Thus, the Frost Advisory for those areas looks good. Otherwise, the small embedded upper shortwave responsible for the precipitation is moving east of the area within the WLY to SWLY upper flow, with another one following in its footsteps. This feature may generate a few more showers Thursday aftn/evening over the higher terrain, but any QPF should be minimal. After that, low-level moisture moisture declines significantly and any additional showers Thursday evening should be very light. At the sfc, a broad area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region will keep winds fairly steady out of the N to NE, with some cold-air damming lingering thru tomorrow. As such, continued NLY to NELY flow will keep things cool with highs not expected to reach 70 degrees tomorrow, despite clearing skies.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...A fairly quiet weather pattern for Thursday night thru Saturday, as the axis of a flat upper trough shifts to our east and sfc high pressure settles over the region. There will be some lingering moisture around 850-700 mb trapped under an inversion that could produce isolated to scattered shallow showers in the NC mountains Friday, but otherwise, it looks dry. The mid clouds should limit any frost potential Thursday night, despite min temps possibly dipping into the mid 30s in the highest elevations. Overall, the temps will start a slow warming trend, with lows about 5-8 deg below normal Thursday and Friday night, and highs 8-10 deg below normal Friday and 5-8 deg below normal Saturday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...Temperatures should gradually warm back to normal or even slightly above normal by the end of the medium range, as flat upper ridging takes over the Southeast. Sfc high pressure lingers over the eastern Great Lakes to the Carolinas Sunday, but then begins to shift off the East Coast, as a low pressure system organizes over the Central Plains. A warm front will activate across the OH Valley and spread moisture and precip east to the Central Appalachians. The 12z GFS is a little south with the precip shield and brings some rain into our northern zones. But overall, it looks to stay north of us. From there it's more of a Bermuda High set up, but with a slow recovery in dew points. In fact, if the deterministic model consensus is correct, the NBM PoPs may be overdone Tuesday and Wednesday, with solid chc PoPs returning.