... A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be just south of our area the next couple of days. Modest drying is expected on Thursday and Friday with weak high pressure to our north, however, deeper moisture returns over the weekend and lingers through early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1030 PM: Convection has diminished over the CWFA for all but a few lingering showers over the Smokies. Expect the convection to end by midnight.
Drier air will work into the region tonight as a cutoff low starts to rejoin the westerlies, and high pressure begins to shift south out of the Great Lakes, pushing a boundary south of the area. Clearing skies may allow some radiation fog, especially where soils are soaked following today's rains. However, some northerly low- level winds may keep the BL mixed, and furthermore dewpoint depressions are expected to be marginal for fog/stratus. Won't rule it out entirely, but for now won't advertise fog either. Min temps will remain slightly above normal. The drier dewpoints will result in higher LCLs/CCLs for Thu aftn. Subsidence associated with the high also results in poor lapse rates aloft, if not a capping inversion. Chance PoPs have thus been trimmed back to the Blue Ridge Escarpment and adjacent ranges, with a slight chance surrounding those areas and across portions of the GA/SC zones, which won't see dewpoints mix out quite as much. Max temps will be near to slightly above normal.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 239 PM EDT Wednesday: The rest of the week looks like typical warm summertime weather. The northerly flow aloft in-between the upper low off the East Coast and the upper anticyclone over the Plains will gradually weaken through the period, eventually leading to a collapse of the flow aloft with a col region over the Carolinas. Not much forcing or support for convection beyond the usual daytime heating, so expect mainly diurnal precip chances that favor the mtns and are at or below climo. That translates to showers being isolated at best outside the mtns. Won't rule out a few strong storms each day, but nothing looks out of the ordinary right now. Temps will stay a few degrees above climo through the period.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 127 PM EDT Wednesday: The latest guidance continues to show a non-descript scenario with weak upper flow across the western Carolinas out into the early part of next week, as we remain trapped in-between the upper trof essentially remaining over the Northeast, the upper ridge remaining over the Plains and Great Lakes, and a poorly-defined and poorly-organized weak upper low over the Deep South. The models are now struggling with run-to-run continuity with the latter feature, altho there is enough going on to justify above-climo precip chances for Sunday into Monday, if it's the GFS you prefer. The ECMWF remains more subdued. Eventually, a piece of the upper ridge to the west will drift in from the TN Valley into the middle of next week. Bottom line...in this regime...it boils down to something that looks very much like regular old summer. Diurnal convection with a chance that a few could produce some severe wind gusts each afternoon/evening. Near normal temps.