Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... Dry high pressure will gradually build into the Southeast from the north through the weekend, remaining over the region much of the workweek. This will allow temperatures to remain above normal this weekend and much of next week. A cold front will gradually approach out of the west late in the week, bringing the potential for rain back into the forecast Friday and beyond.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1030 PM EDT Friday: The latest water vapor imagery indicates upper trough axis positioned east of the forecast area, with considerable mid/upper level drying occurring over the CWA in its wake. Stratocu continues to move slowly south and dissipating. May be after midnight before it's all gone. Clear skies expected for much of the forecast area overnight, except for another round of fog/low stratus that will develop in the mountain valleys beginning around midnight. Can't completely rule out some fog and/or stratus develop in the Piedmont...mainly around the eastern and southern periphery of the CWA, but this remains quite uncertain. Min temps should be near-normal.
Heights will otherwise rise through the period, as prominent upstream upper ridge attempts to build into the East. The atmosphere over our area will therefore remain warm and somewhat suppressed through Saturday. Mostly sunny conditions are expected once the morning stratus and fog burn off, with max temps expected to be around 5 degrees above normal.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 141 PM EDT Friday: A stout omega block will fall into place by Saturday evening...with a 591+ dm ridge in place over the eastern Great Plains and extending well northward into the Great Lakes. In turn, a surface high will build over the Mid-Atlantic and New England, supporting a dry, steady northeasterly wind that will persist through the short term. High temperatures will remain around normal on Sunday, before climbing to around a category above normal on Monday. Dry and clear conditions will support a wide diurnal range, with above-normal lows on Sunday morning dropping to at least normal by Monday morning.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 159 PM EDT Friday: More of the same for much of the extended. Broad surface high pressure will remain in place over the northeast through at least Wednesday, before beginning to slide offshore and permitting a weakening of northeast flow on Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper pattern will become somewhat more progressive as the omega block begins to falter ahead of a deep longwave trough digging across the central CONUS. By Friday, we may finally see rain chances return to the forecast; however, there remains significant ensemble spread on how much, if any, rainfall we can expect from this feature. Among those ensemble members which produce rainfall (primarily the GEFS and GEPS output), there's little agreement on timing, with some members forecasting sprinkles as early as Friday morning, and others holding off until after sunset Friday.