... Dry and cool air will mix in from the northwest today and linger through Monday. By Wednesday, muggy and warm air moves in with thunderstorms expected each afternoon into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: Absolutely gorgeous day continues as surface high pressure and drier air ooze into the forecast area in the wake of the frontal passage last night. Upper troughing in place over the eastern CONUS is keeping temperatures spring-like, roughly 5 degrees below average.
This afternoon, some scattered mid-level clouds are hanging out over the area, but convection remains suppressed everywhere outside the southwestern mountains, where the NW flow over the terrain has generated enough lift to create a decent CU field there. A few showers may be able to form, but with dry air in place, they will be very short-lived and any precip that forms may not even make it to the ground. Clouds will generally scatter out tonight, and temperatures will be near average. Surface high pressure will move closer to the area tomorrow, and that combined with dry air and upper troughing still in place over the eastern CONUS will combine for another dry and spring-like day.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: With sfc high pressure moving off the Carolina coast, upper ridging over the central CONUS will continue to deamplify and broaden through the fcst period as moisture slowly returns to the area from the GOM. As a result, Tuesday will be the last dry day as chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the area on Wednesday as a cold front slowly drops southeastward through the OH Valley. Per latest guidance, anticipate activity to remain confined to the mountains. While max temperatures on Tuesday are expected to climb to just a few degrees below normal, values will near 90 degrees on Wednesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Sunday...The pattern continues to be dominated by stg ridging aloft to the begin the period as the llvl flow becomes defined sw/ly. This will maintain abv normal temps each day as sfc td/s increase to make for muggy feeling conds each afternoon. The upper ridge to the north breaks down Thu as a h5 s/w trof dives out of wrn Canada...and good agreement is had btw the GEFS members that an associated backdoor front will push south toward the FA Thu and become stationary in weakening w/ly flow aloft. With the sfc bndry close by and continued moist GOM flow arnd the Atl ridge, expect convec to break thru a weak subs inversion each afternoon. The convec mode will be pulse stg/svr and confined mainly to the NC mtns, however, activity shud increasingly develop outside the mtns Fri and Sat as the front sags a little further south while the Atl sfc ridge weakens somewhat. The Canadian model is an obvious outlier with developing a trop cyclone in the central GOM by the end of the week, yet with broad weakness predicted in the sub-trop ridge, cyclonic development is not out of the question.