Scaly Mountain Weather

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Scaly Mountain, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry Canadian high pressure will become reinforced today as low pressure moves southeast across the Gulf of Mexico. The dry high pressure will persist into at least early next week before moving off the southeast coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1225 PM EST Saturday: Franklin County Airport reporting some drizzle and radar still shows some decent echoes from there into the Lakelands. Will keep sprinkles mentioned for another couple of hours then expect activity to diminish and move south and east of the area, along with the lower clouds. This is good as it's keeping dew points from bottoming out over the NE GA limiting the potential for a Fire Danger Statement. Even with clouds scattering out, temps remain a little below normal elsewhere with low RH values.

Otherwise, shortwave traversing the Deep South is being absorbed into the longwave system with the parent low off in NE Canada. Surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes under the confluent flow upstream of the trough is ridging toward the Southern Plains, with a finger of a ridge stretching into the Carolinas. Best moisture associated with this shortwave is to our south, with cloud levels dropping through the late overnight hours across the area but especially the Upper Savannah Valley and Upstate. However, continued very, very dry at the surface, so despite some weak radar returns across the TN Valley and N GA, very little if anything reaching the ground. Have continued trend of sprinkles wording in the grids in mainly SW zones, but that said, some WPC superensemble members are wanting to spit out some very light snow along the NC/GA/SC line. Profiles are certainly cold enough aloft, but with the very dry layer at the surface, most likely anything would evaporate/sublimate. Have no plans to add any flurries to the grids, but will monitor obs across N GA as the shortwave dives around.

The shortwave will push out of the area during the day today, though with troughiness remaining in place and enough moisture to keep some cloud cover across the area. Guidance has trended cooler with afternoon highs today as a result. Still expect very dry air with strong mixing again today, but slightly better than yesterday. With that and the cooler temperatures, expect that NE GA will not reach fire danger criteria, so no plans to issue an SPS at this time. Should still see some <20% RH in NC, but winds remain too light for any concerns for products. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 am Saturday: Upper heights will rise across the region during the short term, as a deep trough progresses away from the East Coast, and a low amplitude ridge builds west of the Appalachians. This pattern will more or less anchor very dry low level high pressure across the region through the period, with continued fire weather concerns/low afternoon RH being the only item of concern. For more info...see the Fire Wx discussion below. Otherwise, temps will warm through the period under increasing thickness values, with one more day of below-normal temps expected Sunday before above-climo conditions expected to return for Monday. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 am Saturday: As a major storm system takes shape across the southwest Conus, low amplitude ridging will develop near the Southeast coast early in the medium range, and generally persist through the period. Dry low level ridging will lose its grip on the area...albeit very gradually, as the low levels won't truly begin moistening to a significant degree until toward the end of the period. The main story will be the continued warming trend, as temps are expected to be above normal through the period, possibly well above normal by the end of the week. Global models are somewhat at odds regarding the evolution of a frontal zone associated with late week northern stream height falls, with the ECMWF and Canadian solutions bringing the front and attendant light precip into the forecast area Friday, while the GFS holds the boundary well north and west of the area. We are featuring only the slightest of precip chances across western and northern zones on Friday.

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