Valle Crucis NC Weather

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Valle Crucis, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A weakening cold front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures back to the region and the potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler Monday following that front, with another chance for rain Tuesday as low pressure passes nearby. Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected for the latter half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 741 PM Saturday: Another quiet and seasonally warm evening across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, with only patches of high cloudiness moving overhead. All appears to be in order, so no changes.

Otherwise, the upper ridge axis will move offshore and east of the area later tonight as an upper trof moves over the MS River valley and rides up and over the ridge on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will move farther east tonight and early tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the west. Precip along the front should reach the mountains around daybreak. The front still looks fairly dry as it moves thru the fcst area tomorrow aftn in the synoptic scale models, but the CAMs show some development east of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon. Model profiles have some decent sfc-based instability ahead of the front, with CAPE values aoa 1500 J/kg, but with a warm layer between 5k and 10k feet that will be a strong limiting factor. If the front can lift parcels enough or pool enough moisture to overcome this barrier, we may have a few strong cells, but for now the severe potential remains low. Winds will pick up again from the SW as the front approaches tomorrow, but are not expected to become WLY/NWLY until Monday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Sat: High pressure again will dominate our pattern following the departure of the cold front Sunday night into Monday. Heights however will fall gradually as the warm subtropical ridge flattens. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal Monday, though nothing like those over the weekend. A shortwave will move out of the southern Plains late Monday, pacing unabatedly eastward until it reaches the Carolina coast Wednesday morning; the attendant warm front will arrive in our area Monday night, with PoPs ramping up. The sfc low looks likely to track just to our south Tuesday, almost certainly bringing a period of light to moderate rain to the entire CWA. In fact there's a chance in-situ CAD will develop given the continental sfc airmass and widespread rain; forecast highs are 7 to 10 degrees below normal. A few rumbles of thunder from elevated instability are not out of the question, but sfc-based storms should be kept south of the area, hence minimal severe wx threat. Precip will taper off across most of the area Tue night as the low exits. On the cold side of the system, NW Flow precip may continue along the Tenn border into Wed, though only the very highest peaks look to cool enough for any possibility of snow. Highs will remain several degrees below normal Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM Sat: A shortwave ridge will shift across the Southeast Thursday, implying at least a brief period of settled weather, and temps moderating back closer to normal. The global models don't yet agree perfectly on the details beyond Thursday, but the consensus is for a broad trough to form over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, as northern-stream lows merge. A cold front is shown to develop on the downstream side of that trough, and the front will be driven south and east by a shortwave rounding the trough. The GFS gins up the front west of the Appalachians, such that we end up in the warm sector Friday and Saturday, with a small amount of instability ahead of and along the front. The 28/00z EC depicts a less vigorous front forming farther south, and doesn't feature the instability, though it does bring light QPF to the area as the front oozes through. Members of the GEFS and Canadian GEPS mostly favor a more EC-like solution. PoPs are too small to mention for most of the Piedmont, with a slight chance in the mountains during this timeframe. Below-normal temps will be reinforced by the late week front.

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