Wolf Laurel / Wolf Ridge / Mars Hill

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Wolf Laurel, NC

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ian will slowly drift east from Virginia to start the upcoming week. Expect temperatures to slowly warm through the middle of the week ahead of a dry cold front which will arrive by Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 9:45PM EDT Saturday: Forecast remains on track. Winds are now light to variable generally north-northwesterly, with a scattered to broken cloud deck around 5000 ft AGL. Temperatures will decline to near seasonal normal Sunday morning, with highs 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Radar indicates some very light showers are possible at higher elevations along the TN state line in upslope areas with northwesterly flow.

Main forecast feature is the mid/upper low that will continue to spin over the Mid-Atlantic region. The position of the mid/upper low has allowed a deep NW flow to take hold over the western Carolinas. This should maintain a chance of light shower activity in the NW upslope areas along the TN border through the night.

The upper low will slowly move from western VA to northern NC through Sunday afternoon, maintaining the deep NW to N flow across the region. A bit of a resurgence of precip production could occur along the TN border late tonight as another vort lobe rotates around the low, but think precip will remain confined to the west slopes of the mtns.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: An upper-low will meander overhead the Carolinas and Virginias much of the short term before pushing offshore the Mid-Atlantic Coast towards the end of the period. Lobes of vorticity will rotate around the low, diving across the Carolinas throughout the fcst period. At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will build in across the eastern US while the sfc low tracks offshore the Mid-Atlantic Coast and gradually strengthens as it lifts northeast. This overall pattern will lead to N'ly and NE'ly 850 mb flow allowing for below normal temps through most of the short term. Should see dry conditions outside of lingering chance PoPs across the western NC mtns and NW NC Piedmont through late Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night will be near normal thanks to lingering cloud cover associated with the upper-low. Highs Monday will be around 5- 10 degrees below climo becoming 2-5 degrees below climo Tuesday. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night will be around 3-8 degrees below climo thanks to good radiational cooling conditions from less cloud cover.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday: Extended forecast looks to remain mostly dry and rather quiet. The aforementioned upper-low lifts northeast away from the NE CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging builds in briefly Wednesday into daybreak Thursday before quasi-zonal flow with occasional troughing remains in place the rest of the extended fcst period. At the sfc, high pressure will gradually sink southward out of the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. 850 mb flow turns NW'ly on Wednesday becoming WSW'ly Thursday, and W'ly Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow temps to be on a warming trend through much of the extended. Highs Wednesday will be near to a few agrees above climo across the western half of the CWA, with near a few degrees below climo across the eastern half of the CWA. Thursday high temps will be around 3-5 degrees above climo, becoming 4-6 degrees above climo east of the mtns and 2-3 degrees above climo across the mtns Friday. Lows will be around 2-4 degrees below climo Wednesday night, becoming near normal to a few degrees below climo east of the mtns and around 2-4 degrees above climo across the mtns Thursday night. Thursday night into early Friday a cold front will track east towards the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The front looks to push across the CWA throughout the day Friday. Global models show the potential for PoPs along the NC/TN border Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. However, stuck with NBM PoPs as moisture looks to be limited with the front. This led to a continued dry forecast. Canadian high pressure builds back in behind the departing FROPA Friday night into Saturday leading to cooler temps. Friday night lows will be around 1-3 degrees below normal. Saturday high temps should be around 3-6 degrees below climo.

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