Bryce Resort / Basye

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Basye, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic early today as the remnants of Sally move off the Carolina coast. Canadian high pressure will follow for the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Patchy fog or light drizzle north of U.S. 50 and along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains through daybreak. Areas to the south and east will see light rain or moderate drizzle end from northwest to southeast by daybreak.

Cloudy skies will break for some sunshine around midday today and continue through this afternoon. High pressure will build in from the northwest today and tonight, bringing dry conditions and cooler temperatures, especially at night. A gusty northerly wind of 25 to 30 mph is possible around midday and this afternoon.

High temperatures should reach 70 degrees for most of the region this afternoon. Temperatures will be cool tonight, generally in the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The cooler temperatures will prevail Saturday with highs in the 60s. Low temperatures Saturday night will likely dip into the 40s for most, with 30s in outlying areas where winds go light. Patchy frost is possible where temperatures dip into the middle 30s.

High pressure will remain in control Sunday and Sunday night, as well. Cooler than average temperatures expected with a steady north to northeast wind.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A relatively quiet pattern will reign through the long term. At the start, northerly flow aloft will dominate as a closed low sits over the western Atlantic and a ridge is positioned over the south- central US. This will result in a cool high pressure centered over the St. Lawrence Valley to our north and a surface low (Teddy?) well east of the coast, with a northerly surface flow as well.

The upper-level pattern will continue essentially unchanged on Tuesday, though the surface high will shift further south towards the southern Appalachians while the surface low (Teddy?) will shift northward well off the coast.

By Wednesday, the closed upper low will open up and lift northeast, with the upper ridge migrating eastward. This will allow surface low pressure (Teddy?) to retreat northeast further away into the Canadian Maritimes with surface high pressure to our south, allowing a milder flow of air to reach us.

By Thursday, the upper ridge will be over our region, but weakening and transient by this point as another upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. At the surface, this will mean we have a cold front approaching from the northwest, but a mild air mass will remain in place.

With no features of significance actually crossing our region, the chance of precip will be near zero, but temperatures will change noticeably, with below normal readings Monday rising to slightly above normal by Thursday.

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