Canaan Valley Resort

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Davis, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Showers and thunderstorms will be crossing the area today with the passage of a cold front. High pressure returns dry and seasonably cool conditions for the first half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes to the overnight period.

Impressive shortwave trough, and its associated surface low, cold front, will cross the region today. Models are still in disagreement on the overall impact this system will have on the area. We will have two shots today for showers and storms. The first will come with the passage of the shortwave trough this morning. The second will arrive later in the afternoon and evening as the surface system dives southeastward. Models are depicting a scenario where the upper level system outraces the surface system and loses connection with it this morning. So the upper level wave will clear the forecast area by early afternoon. Then during the afternoon, the surface cold front will trek southeastward, clearing the area sometime during the evening hours. I say sometime because still seeing timing differences in the models on how fast the surface boundary moves to the southeast. How much activity occurs with the upper level wave, and how much cloud cover is left over, will impact the effect the passing cold front will have. And again, models are not in agreement with this either. The upper level support will be much less during the afternoon and cloud cover will work to hinder new development, however, the atmosphere will be plenty unstable during the afternoon and there will be enough wind shear to support updrafts that do develop. Additionally, drier air aloft will begin to overspread the region behind the morning shortwave, increasing the risk for downbursts. Forecast soundings are showing an extensive area of positive energy above the LFC, which is resting at around 3000ft. So depending on temperatures and surface buoyancy, if the parcels are able to rise to the LFC, there will little to prevent them from working the their way to the EQL. Again, the potential is definitely there for strong to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening, but much of the final product will depend on what the morning wave leaves behind. With the residual cloud cover temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today, than on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front will move south of the area late this evening, bringing and end to the showers and storms.

High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on Friday with dry conditions expected through Saturday. Temperatures will run below seasonal averages under cold advection.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging will remain in place over the Rockies and the southern Plains into early next week. The main band of westerlies will generally remain just north of the CWA in this pattern, with any rain chances through the period confined to areas north of I-80. Overall, a dry pattern is anticipated. In the general troughing pattern, temperatures will remain just a bit below normal.

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