Canaan Valley Resort

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Davis, WV

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Canaan Valley Resort
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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Temperatures are forecast to remain well above average through next weekend. Apart from a chance of drizzle tomorrow night, the next chance of rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure and subsidence will lend to continued dry air at the surface through the near term. This will limit low cloud coverage overnight. Despite clear skies, temperatures will remain stagnant as the area is embedded in continued warm advection on the backside of a retreating surface high. Lending to the continued pressure gradient, sustained winds will continue overnight around 10kts for the lowlands, and as high as 20kts for the ridges. Winds will generally persist out of the south-southwest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The next shortwave trough will approach and pass north of the region through the day Sunday, but meager moisture and limited lift will keep late-day precipitation chances low and focused north and east of Pittsburgh. Southwesterly flow will continue the area warming trend, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Upper ridging will result in dry conditions Monday.

In a continued pressure gradient between the passing shortwave to the north, and a high to the south, daytime winds Sunday will likely reach 10-15kts during the afternoon, gusting 25-30kts out of the southwest. Overnight, winds will calm and veer westerly as the shortwave progresses eastward.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm advection will return Tuesday as southwest flow strengthens ahead of a northern stream upper trough. Precipitation appears likely to return to the region late in the day ahead of a surface cold front. However, ensembles suggest it will likely be decaying as upper forcing is deflected farther north by the far SE CONUS ridge, meaning precipitation chances will lessen into Wednesday as the front washes out. Expect well above normal temperature ahead of the front with likely little change in airmass after it passes/stalls.

The mentioned weakening trough from Tuesday will lift to the northeast. As this develops, a second trough out of the SW ejects into the Gulf Coast region where surface low pressure develops along a remnant boundary from the previous front. Still with little gradient but should be favorable for cyclogenesis. This feature develops and lifts north as well with another round of warm air advection leading to another round of rainfall across the region Wednesday/Thursday and into Thursday night. For the most part, temperatures return to seasonal but more likely above seasonal temperatures for the extended forecast.

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