... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday as the stalled front lingers to our south.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cool front will sink southward this evening and then meander over the southern half of the region overnight. With the loss of sun and very weak upper level support, most of the night should remain dry. A noticeably more vigorous shortwave trough will swing into western Ohio late tonight. This upper level energy could push a shower into the Ohio counties as dawn approaches. For the evening update...have updated PoPs to account for the line of convection along our southern border and also for the possibility of showers in Ohio toward dawn. Overnight temperatures were modified with a blend of hires model guidance.
Boundary is expected to stall near the Mason-Dixon line on Thursday, keeping scattered shower chances in the forecast for Thursday morning. However, more vigorous convection is expected to fire along the front once again Thursday afternoon and evening as another warm and moist day is anticipated, increasing confidence in another unstable environment.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Shower and storm coverage will decrease Thursday evening as the shortwave trough exits to the east and upper level heights rise in response.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain chances associated with the stationary front remain in the forecast through Friday when a weak low crosses Ontario into Quebec, dragging a cold front through the region. Showers may persist into Saturday as this system exits and higher pressure builds across the area.
Sfc high pressure should be the dominant feature for our weather into early next week, ensuring minimal rain chances during that period. Our next significant system will not come until mid-week as the likely remnants of Cristobol interact with a deepening low crossing out of the Canadian Prairies.
Temperatures will remain above average through the long term.