Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure builds in for tonight into Thursday. Low pressure rides along the southeast coast Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 138 PM EST Tuesday...

Winter weather advisories remain in effect tonight for Western Greenbrier and along the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains.

The back edge of the main precipitation area with rain and snow should exit our forecast area during the next couple of hours. While some snow showers and snow flurries linger in the western mountains. The HiResW-ARW-East and Nam showed some snow showers and snow flurries lingering into this evening. However, the trend of models has been to trim back the upslope snow showers and flurries. Regional radar images indicated some scattered snow showers to our west across the Ohio valley.

Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds will usher in very cold air tonight. HiRes models like NAMnest continue to show another window for gusty wind tonight across high terrain with pressure rises and a low level jet slide across region. Gusty winds and chilly wind chills are main concern along Southern Blue Ridge. Clearing is expected east of the mountains this afternoon into tonight, with lingering upslope clouds and isolated snow showers and flurries across the mountains into early evening before clearing overnight.

Wind chills will fall into the negative single digits at the higher elevations tonight with single digits above zero to teens elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the single digits in the mountains to around 20 degrees in the piedmont.

Canadian high pressure will build east across our region Wednesday. Under plenty of sunshine, High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 20s in the mountains to the lower 40s in the piedmont.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 232 PM EST Tuesday...

A cold dry Canadian high pressure will continue to sit over the region into Thursday. A northern stream system will begin to phase with the southern stream Gulf disturbance Thursday night. These two systems will generate a surface low that will track across northern Florida Thursday night then along the Carolina Coast Friday and Friday night. With the track of the low staying south of the area, precipitation may edge north into Southside VA beginning as early as Thursday evening and exiting by midday Friday, elsewhere will remain dry. Since temperatures are expected to warm and remain above freezing, precipitation will fall as a cold rain. Rainfall amounts should not exceed two tenth of an inch.

Daytime temperatures will remain colder than normal Thursday by 10F- 15F, while moderating some on Friday to 5F-10F cooler than normal. Normal temperatures for this time of year range from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains (upper 40s across higher elevations) to low to mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge.

Overnight temperatures will also remain cooler than normal with readings Wednesday night in the upper teens across the mountains to lower 20s east of the Blue Ridge. Nighttime lows return to normal Thursday night and Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 232 PM EST Tuesday...

The system off the Carolina Coast will become an occluded low, but will stay off the coast through the weekend. Early next week, a cold front tracking across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will push the coastal low further out to sea. However, this front will have a new low pressure system with it, coming out of the Gulf and along the east coast next week. Unlike this weekend system, the low with the front will move north very quickly.

Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal over the weekend, then moderate towards normal through mid week.

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