Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... An arctic front moves across the area today. This will bring increasing winds and much colder temperatures to the region into Saturday. Temperatures start to moderate early next week with dry weather expected into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 AM EST Friday...

...Expect Much Colder And Windier Weather Today-Tonight...

Leading edge of drier air has pushed into the piedmont this morning, while the actual arctic air resides more across the Ohio Valley. High clouds will continue this morning before we clear out by midday, with some lingering upslope clouds and flurries possible early in the WV mtns north of I-64.

Temperatures in the mountains today will likely stay steady or may fall this afternoon, while the rest of the area has a slow rise. So expect 20s in the mountains to mid 30s to lower 40s east.

The 6 hr pressure rises of 3-6mb and a 30-40kt low level jet per model soundings suggest that highest elevations of NC/Grayson Highlands could have gusts exceeding 45 mph but overall most will have wind sub-advisory so no headlines planned, except for the wind chill in the mountains of Western Greenbrier, where apparent temperatures most of the day into tonight tumble below zero to as low as 10 degrees below. Wind chills elsewhere will be in the single digits in the west to teens and 20s in the piedmont by this evening.

Clear skies tonight but winds stay up just enough to keep temperatures from tumbling further, but still should be the coldest we've had since just around Christmas.

Forecast confidence is high.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EST Friday...

Quiet and dry, but colder...

Surface high pressure will be situated over the area through the most of the weekend, before sliding eastward and offshore by late Sunday. This will keep the region precipitation free and provide some clearer skies for most. A weak upper level trough looks to pass just to the north of the area Sunday night into Monday, which may bring a slight chance of upslope showers to southeast West Virginia. However, given that forecast precipitable water values are less than half an inch with such a dry airmass overhead, not expecting much in the way of any precipitation.

The stronger winds will start to diminish later Saturday as the cold air advection and pressure rises move away from the area. An 850mb jet of 45 to 50 knots will move across just to the northeast of the area through Sunday, and will result in some stronger winds for some of the higher elevation locations along and west of the Blue Ridge, with possible gusts of 25 to 35 mph.

Temperatures on Saturday will be the coldest of this forecast period. Lows will be in the teens areawide Saturday morning, and strong winds will keep apparent temperatures in the single digits and teens. As the cold airmass moves out of the region, temperatures will start to warm up, with highs in the 40s to mid 50s for Sunday and Monday.

Forecast confidence is average.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EST Friday...

A few rounds of precipitation possible Wed-Thu..

Upper level ridging develops over the southeastern US and into the Mid Atlantic during the first half of the week, while troughing deepens over the western US. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic will shift northeastward and into the Atlantic, while surface low pressure with associated fronts moves into the Great Plains by the middle of the week. As this system continues northeastward and into the Great Lakes, the cold front will start to sag southward into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. This system will bring the next chance of rain showers to the Central Appalachians for Wednesday. With the broad west/southwesterly flow in place ahead of this front advecting in warmer and moister air, any precipitation will likely remain liquid. This flow will result in warmer temperatures and increased cloud cover. Another surface low and frontal system approaches the area by the end of the week from the Midwest, which will bring another round of precipitation. Given the differences shown in the long range guidance regarding evolution and location of the two systems discussed, have kept PoPs at slight chance to chance for the second half of the week.

High temperatures will be in the mid 50s in the west and low 60s in the east through much of this forecast period, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast confidence is low to average.

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