Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move away from the area today. A ridge of high pressure will become nearly stationary from the Gulf of Mexico, north to the Great Lakes region by Thursday and remain that way through at least the start of the weekend. This will promote a drying trend associated with moderating temperatures for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 947 AM EDT Wednesday...

Made some minor adjustments to temperatures for this morning into this afternoon utilizing the last surface obs, their trends and blend in NBM. In general, cooled the morning temperatures in the west a few degrees. Also went a little slower on clear out clouds in the east. The expectation is that clouds will linger long for forecast area. The latest NAM, HRRR and Hiresw- ARW-east support the scattered showers of rain and snow in forecast. Made minor adjustments to pops and weather for this afternoon. More changes later...

As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

A low pressure system will continue to rapidly deepen as it moves quickly off the North Carolina coast this morning. The low is expected to develop into a rather large storm over the western Atlantic, meandering off the East Coast for the next few days. For our area, partial clearing is expected in the wake of the storm system today, with lingering clouds across the mountains in additions to scattered showers. Forecast soundings suggests shower depth will reach above the freezing level, thus can't rule out mix of rain/snow or rain/graupel/soft hail as a result of the convective nature of the showers. Models also indicate some wrap around moisture to persist across the foothills and piedmont, with lingering light rain this morning, gradually clearing/dissipating for the afternoon. Attm favoring highest pops from the WV/VA border, across the southern Shenandoah Valley and into central VA. Lowest precip potential will be just lee of the Blue Ridge from Mount Airy into the western piedmont of NC where north to northwesterly winds will favor more subsidence there. Temperatures will remain rather cool across the mountains with highs getting no warmer than the 40s. Readings into the 50s are expected for the foothills and piedmont, aided by increasing amounts of solar insolation as the day progresses.

Tonight will feature cool overnight lows...readings in the 30s. Not out of the question to see some patchy frost if skies completely clear and the winds decouple. Attm think this threat appears low. Proximity of the Coastal Low should keep winds elevated just enough to maintain mixing east of the mountains in spite of any clearing. Lingering clouds over the mountains, in addition to the wind, should keep temperatures in check there also.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

This period is characterized by a dome of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be dry days, giving us a reprieve from the frequent rain of late. Skies will be clear to after drier air breaks up clouds over the mountains on Thursday night. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s during the nights, but will warm up into the low 60s west of the Blue Ridge, almost 70 to the east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

The blocky pattern will start to break down but not before we can squeeze out one last dry day on Saturday. The pattern will then become a bit more progressive as the eastern ridge becomes broader and less amplified. This will keep the region in a warm but unsettled pattern with a chance of showers just about each day through the first part of next week. A weak front may bring some showers back to the forecast by Sunday, but the better chance of showers looks to be Monday night into Tuesday associated with a weak wave of low pressure riding along a weak warm front.

The warming trend will continue through the weekend with temperatures well above normal into the first part of next week. By Tuesday highs will generally be in the low to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge with upper 60s/lower 70s to the west.

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