Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Tropical Storm Fay moves to make landfall in New England, while troughing and a frontal system bring storms our way this weekend. A series of shortwaves will trigger storms mostly today and Sunday, before a large ridge begins to build in early next week. This ridge will bring a warm, stable airmass to the area, so rain chances will be low next week. Temperatures will be above normal most of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Storms are beginning to gel into a line as they move off the Blue Ridge and into the foothills. Storms should exit the foothills by 830p and the piedmont by 10p. Most of the storms reports coming in are from damaging thunderstorm winds downing trees.

As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Troughing and lowering heights make their way into the area from the west to replace tropical Storm Fay as it exits the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and moves over New England. As a result, a few storms have already begun to form in northern NC, and some showers as well along the mountains in SE WV. The main line of storms is a bit further west, making its way through eastern KY and central WV, and should reach far SW VA in the next hour or so. Storm coverage will increase as the afternoon carries on, concentrating along and west of the Blue Ridge. CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range could allow a couple storms to break into severe limits. Later this evening, showers and storms may bleed into the Piedmont, helped along by potential outflow from Blue Ridge storms and an approaching cold front.

As the trough settles overhead for this weekend, a few shortwaves will make their away around the bend and bring rounds of showers and storms. Saturday seems poised to be the calmest this weekend, as timing-wise, it sits in a lull between the cold front and the shortwave coming for Sunday.

Today and tomorrow will be in the 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid 80s west, with afternoon storms keeping things a tad cooler today. Lows will be regulated by cloud cover tonight, only getting into the upper 60s west, low 70s east.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Late Saturday night, winds will shift more south-southwesterly as high pressure shifts east, allowing deeper moisture to return to the area.

Next, will be keeping an eye on an upper level disturbance that will swing across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon/evening that will pull a weak cold front across the central Appalachians. Overall, the threat of severe storms is low, but given a day of strong heating before convection arrives, believe enough instability will be present that a couple of storms will intensify to severe levels for brief periods of time, capable of producing mainly locally damaging winds. This activity is expected to be hit-and- miss, with the greatest coverage of rainfall mainly over the mountains, weakening as it enters the Piedmont during late Sunday evening.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front early Monday, resulting in drier conditions and a steady northwesterly downslope wind flow. Though can't rule out an isolated shower or two along the higher ridges of southeast West Virginia through the Highlands of North Carolina, do not see the instability present to support more than that, and Monday will be dry overall.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Late Saturday night, winds will shift more south-southwesterly as high pressure shifts east, allowing deeper moisture to return to the area.

Next, will be keeping an eye on an upper level disturbance that will swing across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday afternoon/evening that will pull a weak cold front across the central Appalachians. Overall, the threat of severe storms is low, but given a day of strong heating before convection arrives, believe enough instability will be present that a couple of storms will intensify to severe levels for brief periods of time, capable of producing mainly locally damaging winds. This activity is expected to be hit-and- miss, with the greatest coverage of rainfall mainly over the mountains, weakening as it enters the Piedmont during late Sunday evening.

High pressure will build in behind the cold front early Monday, resulting in drier conditions and a steady northwesterly downslope wind flow. Though can't rule out an isolated shower or two along the higher ridges of southeast West Virginia through the Highlands of North Carolina, do not see the instability present to support more than that, and Monday will be dry overall.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, resulting in only isolated showers, if anything at all, under mostly sunny skies. Any convection will be brief and generally confined to the higher mountain ridges.

Temperatures will increase for Wednesday into the end of the workweek as upper level ridging, currently across the Southwest, broadens eastward to cover the southern half of the nation. As such, expect daytime highs reaching into the mid 90s across the Piedmont and into the upper 80s and low 90s across the mountains. Combine that with increasing moisture on Thursday and Friday, and may see heat index values rise into the 100F to 105F range, perhaps higher in spots, across the Piedmont.

As for rainfall, the highest chances will remain closer to the Ohio River where the northern edge of the upper ridge will be located. That stated, may see some thunderstorm activity push southward to the Interstate 64 corridor both Thursday and Friday evening if any weaknesses in the ridge develop. Given the strong heating, storms that do enter our area from the north have the potential to be strong, which is something we will monitor as the week progresses.

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