Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Ridging over the Mid-Atlantic will bring mostly dry and warmer weather into next week. A front enters the region by Thursday with the next chance of storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 102 PM EDT Saturday...

Clearing and cool tonight, then warmer Sunday...

Northwest flow stratocu reminiscent of cooler months will begin to fade later today into tonight. Tonight features seasonable lows with comfortable humidity, but fog may be around come sunrise Sunday, especially in the mountains.

Sunday we start to the see the upper ridge build over the southeast, centering itself across the Carolinas in teh afternoon. Still some weak disturbances passing north of this center may bring some high clouds and scattered cumulus in the afternoon, but more sun than clouds.

After lows tonight in the 50s, with some 40s mountains, temperatures should reach the 80s Sunday, with 70s along the higher ridges. Humidity levels still not bad for the end of May.

Forecast confidence high on all weather elements except average on fog.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Confidence is high for dry but warmer weather...

Ridge builds over the southeast and south as we head into next week. The center of the ridge will be overhead Monday then retrograde westward into the lower-mid MS and TN Valley by Tuesday. Some potential for a weak shortwave to bring a few clouds Tuesday but all in all, more sunshine and increasing heat and humidity by Tuesday. Monday will still be slightly less humid, but as airmass stagnates with light winds, you will notice the humidity and heat a little more by Tuesday.

Heat indices Tuesday will be in the mid 90s in the piedmont east of Danville.

Cannot rule out a stray storm in the NC mtns, but think the warmer air aloft will keep things capped.

Forecast confidence is high.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1207 PM EDT Saturday...

Heat Gives Way To Seasonal Temperatures By Next Weekend...

Ridge over the southern U.S. begins to get suppressed by a trough moving into the upper midwest/MS Valley by midweek. This will send a front into our region by Thu-Fri with increased chances for storms. Upper flow becomes zonal, so the front may stall across to our south by the weekend. Model trends favor hotter temps mid week, then near normal by Friday into Saturday. Westerly flow and some drier air though could boost temps warmer lee of the mountains.

Overall best chances for storms looks to be Thursday into Friday, but given the zonal flow kept pops in the chance range.

After highs ranging from the 80s mountains to lower to mid 90s piedmont Wednesday, look for highs to be in the 70s in the mountains and 80s in the piedmont by Friday, with dewpoints falling from the 60s back into the 40s and 50s by Saturday.

Forecast confidence is good on temperature trends, but lower on chance of storms.

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