Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure will track across the southeast United States today and tonight bringing rain and snow to the region. High pressure builds in for Friday followed by another low that will track from the central United States to the Mid Atlantic region this weekend. More rain and snow is expected Saturday night into the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 10 AM EST Wednesday...

A special weather statement has been issued for western Greenbrier County for pockets of freezing drizzle. This should diminish around noon. Otherwise some light echoes over northern central NC and just barely bleeding into southern VA. This may produce some light WAA showers this afternoon once the atmospheric column is sufficiently moistened.

Adjusted temperatures but so far they are either gradually increasing o holding steady. With dense cloud cover and the stronger WAA staying to our south, most spots are close to their highs for the day and will hover around these values through this afternoon.

Still looking like a winter weather advisory event for much of the area beginning tonight and into the morning hours Thursday.

As of 345 AM EST Wednesday...

Trimming Dense Fog Advisory. Issuing Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings.

Upper low tracking out of the central Rockies early this morning will reach the Mid Atlantic area and be moving off the Virginia coast Thursday morning. Q-vector forcing and upper diffluence and the strongest synoptic scale forcing cross Virginia and North Carolina between 00Z/7PM and 12Z/7AM.

Transition from rain to snow between I-64 and the Virginia/North Carolina border by 10am. Cold enough for snow in northern North Carolina around midnight. Similar to WPC, will be leaning toward timing and temperature profiles of the 00Z NAM, slightly faster and farther south than the GFS. Maximum QPF will be around three quarters of an inch liquid, along the Blue Ridge section of NC. Even through this starts as rain and may not change over until around midnight, still enough snow by morning to impact Thursday commute so Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning will be issued for northern North Carolina and southern Virginia. As the low intensifies and wind speeds increase from the northwest, blowing snow will also have some impact to travel.

Dense fog in the foothills and piedmont was erode from the west and south this morning. Expect the trend to continue. Have cut back the area covered by the Dense Fog Advisory.

Stayed close to a blend of 3KM NAM and NBM guidance for highs today and lows tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Tapering snow showers Thursday morning make way for a chilly, sunny end to the week.

An upper level trough continues east and heads off the coast into the Atlantic on Thursday. Any snow falling in our area will shut off very quickly once the system begins to move out. The only exception is some lingering upslope in southern WV down through the Mountain Empire. Strong northwesterly winds will hold out light upslope snow showers just a few hours longer than everywhere else. Behind this wintry system there are pressure rises as low pressure exits and cold high pressure from the plains fills in behind it quickly. Thursday could be quite gusty, resulting in some new fallen snow getting blown about and drifted. Winds will calm down overnight Thursday into Friday as high pressure really takes over the area.

Friday will be clear and sunny, but behind the front temperatures will be quite chilly, especially at night. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 20s/lower 30s west of the Blue Ridge, and low 40s east. Nighttime lows will plunge into the teens and 20s for everyone.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 255 PM EST Tuesday...

High pressure Friday night through Saturday before a potential wintry mess Sunday into early next week.

Broad upper level ridging and high pressure remain in play briefly through Saturday evening. After that all good things come to an end with another potential wintry event in the cards for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all feature a low pressure system that will eject out of the southern Plains along with a lee-side low that will head for the coast and likely become a noreaster for the New England states during the Monday and Tuesday timeframe. Each model also illustrates an overrunning scenario with a strong cold air am in place thanks to high pressure blocking over eastern Canada.

The GFS remains the most aggressive and the fastest out of the 3 model suites bringing the low out of the southern Plain and into the Ohio River Valley without any coastal transfer. In turn this would give us more of a rain and mixed bag event compared to snow similar to the Miller-B type system that we saw this time last weekend. The Euro and Canadian on the favor more of a wedge with the blocking high pressure supplying the cold to the north and an area of low pressure transferring energy from the Ohio River Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. These solutions would favor more of a snow and ice event compared to rain. With all of that in mind the models are subject to change. As we have seen so often the trend starts out to the north with a big time snowfall forecast but as we get closer trends south and trends down when it comes to amounts so plenty of uncertainty remains.

So as it stands now plan for dry conditions through Saturday night with our next storm system slated to move in Sunday. As always temperatures, the placement of the front, and track of the resultant low pressure systems will play into the overall ptype. The brunt of the system will be in here Sunday and Monday before a good dose of northwest flow kicks in MOnday afternoon as the system slowly departs. This will set us up for a prolonged upslope snow event in the western mountains from Monday into the middle part of next week.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly below average to start the period with a return to seasonable to slightly above average numbers by the midweek period.

Confidence remains low to moderate at this time in the long term period.

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