Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... The remnants of Sally continue to push north and east through the Virginia Tidewater and Delmarva this morning. Meanwhile a cold front will enter the region from the west this afternoon ushering in dry Canadian high pressure for the last full weekend of Summer. Dry and below normal conditions look to stick around with high pressure overhead for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 455 AM EDT Friday...

Our last band of light showers from Sally continue to pull out of the Southside and Piedmont this morning. Fog remains relatively patchy and mainly confined to our west across the Greenbrier Valley. Elsewhere around the region areas of mist and drizzle have been observed thanks to tropical moisture remaining overhead. Temperatures remain a bit milder this morning with many spots in the low to mid 60s. Out west it's a bit cooler with morning temps starting in the upper 50s.

Skies will gradually clear from west to east as our cold front approaches from the west by mid to late afternoon. As a result high temperatures should bounce back into the low to mid 70s out east and mid to upper 60s to around 70 out west.

A stray shower is possible with our cold frontal passage but the main story will be the cool Canadian airmass settling in for tonight. Northerly winds around our incoming area of high pressure will be the culprit behind an early preview of fall-like weather for the weekend ahead.

Saturday morning temps start in the low to mid 40s out west with upper 40s and low 50s out east. Some patchy fog looks to be noted over the typical river valleys as a good radiational cooling scenario sets up. A mix of sun and clouds are expected by Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

As of 215 AM EDT Friday...

A Flood Advisory remains in effect for Bedford, Campbell, Charlotte, City of Danville, City of Martinsville, Franklin, Patrick, Halifax, Henry, and Pittsylvania counties through 700am this morning. Many of these locations have received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with some locally heavier pockets leading to some rises on area streams and creeks along with rivers in the area. Both the Pig River at Sandy Level and Dan River at South Boston look to crest at action stage later today through early Saturday morning. The Roanoke River at Randolph though looks to get close to minor flooding during this time frame.

Good news is that the rain continues east with just a few leftover pockets of showers over the Southside/Piedmont this morning with areas of drizzle and fog to the west. A leftover shower cannot be ruled out through mid morning into the afternoon as the front passes but no additional flooding concerns are expected.

Low clouds, fog, and patchy drizzle especially off to the east will be predominant this morning with the tropical air still in place. Allow a little extra time as you head off to work and watch for the kids at the bus stop this morning. Fog looks to burn off after 9-10am with skies gradually clearing through the day.

Our cold front looks to arrive by mid to late afternoon. As the front passes winds look to gusts upwards of 10-20 mph out of the northwest switching to the northerly direction by late this evenings as drier air settle in. High temperatures should be warmer thanks to clearing skies with low to mid 70s out east of the Blue Ridge and mid to upper 60s out west. Overnight lows look to fall off nicely as skies clear with mid to upper 40s out west and low to mid 50s out east. Patchy fog also looks prevalent in our western river valleys with leftover moisture, calm winds, and clear skies overhead.

Confidence remains moderate to high in the near term.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

A large area of Canadian high pressure will dominate the area through the entire period. Aloft, a broad subtropical ridge will dominate much of the central and eastern U.S. through the period. This should keep conditions dry and skies mostly clear through the period. Tropical weather will remain well to our south or out in the Atlantic with any large scale synoptic systems tracking around the upper ridge into the western U.S. and Canada.

The remainder of the weekend and the first part of next week will be a bit on the chilly side with temperatures slightly below the normal readings of max temps in the 70s and lows in the 50s, instead running from the 40s in the mornings to largely the 60s in the afternoon, except lower 70s Piedmont. Deeper mountain valleys in the west will likely drop into the 30s each morning from Sunday through Tuesday, with locations such as Burkes Garden potentially reaching the 32F mark, but at a minimum seeing frost.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ Temperatures - High Precipitation Probabilities - None Winds - Moderate.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday....

Little change to the extended as all models including the ensembles continue to show a large area of high pressure surface and aloft dominating the weather pattern over the eastern United States through the middle of next week. The high looks to park itself right over top of us by Tuesday bringing with it a prolonged period of dry weather. It will also feel like Fall for the start of Autumn which arrives on Tuesday at 932 am. Tuesday morning at this point appears to be the coolest morning of the week before a slow warming trend begins.

With upper ridging remaining over the area through the later half of the week, 850mb temperatures will begin to creep back up and by the end of the week should be approaching +18C across the area. So while the week will start rather cool with lows in the 30s/40s west to mostly 40s east and highs in the 60s west to around 70 east, the week will end with lows mostly in the 40s and 50s west to the 50s east and highs largely in the 70s west to the lower 80s east. Humidity levels will remain low.

Just one thing to keep an eye on in the later portions of the extended is a tropical system brewing of the Texas Coast, currently T.D. No. 22, which the ECMWF eventually wants to track into the Mid-South and Southeastern U.S. next weekend. We won't worry about yet, but need to keep an eye on it. Until then, it should be smooth sailing with pleasant temperatures and weather conditions to enjoy.

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