Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

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Harrisonburg, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

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Arctic high pressure will build in from the Midwest tonight, move overhead Wednesday, then retreat offshore of New England Thursday. A cold front approaching from the Ohio Valley will cross the region Thursday night into Friday. Another area of high pressure will follow for the weekend, building over New England as low pressure develops off the southeast U.S. coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Steady precip will exit southern St. Mary's County in the next hour or so where a mixture of rain and snow is being reported at Pax River NAS. Isold-sct snow showers on NNW flow are expected to continue to spread across the northern half of the fcst area through 03Z tonight as CAA pattern continues. Only a trace of snow accumulation is expected and mainly over non-paved surfaces. Clearing with diminishing winds late tonight as Arctic high pressure builds toward the local area by daybreak. Very cold with lows in the teens and 20's.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Arctic high pressure will be overhead Wednesday and retreat offshore Thu. It will start out clear and cold Wed morning but with increasing high level clouds through the day. Warming trend is expected to begin Thu with temps rebounding into the mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

On Friday, arctic high pressure will be building in out of central Canada in the wake of a dry cold front. Meanwhile, cutoff upper low will move across the southeast throughout the day, before sliding off the southeast coast Friday night. The associated surface low will follow the same general track and strengthen as it moves offshore. This will lead to increased cloudcover across southeastern portions of the forecast area, but that is likely it, as the upper level pattern favors moving this system out to sea. But it will be slow to do so.

As a result, another upper trough will approach the area late weekend into early next week. This trough will bring the cutoff low to the north a bit, resulting in a slightly better chance for precip across the region. Meanwhile, high pressure will hold to the north, pushing cooler than normal air into the region.

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