... Weather disturbance brings storm chances today and this evening. Potentially another hot and humid period by the middle of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM Sunday...
An area of showers has moved eastward into our SE Ohio counties this morning and showers are expected to spread further east into the CWA over the next couple of hours. Current forecast already accounted for this and generally remains on track, so have made no changes at this time.
As of 549 AM Sunday...
Remnant outflow boundary from overnight Lower OH River Valley MCS is rapidly moving east and crossing into West Virginia. Isolated showers may occur along the boundary over the next couple of hours, along with gradual development in cloud cover. A brief uptick of precip negation may then occur for a little bit in wake of this boundary, as a sinking airmass prevails. However, another H5 s/w trough currently over Indiana should advect closer by mid/late morning and help initiate renewed precip development. Current forecast remains on track...for now...with only a few tweaks made to expected sunrise temps.
As of 206 AM Sunday...
Unfortunately, the forecast certainty for the Near Term period is rather low today. As of writing, a slowly weakening MCS was entering LMK's CWA from the northwest and may eventually slide across a portion of JKL's CWA. The ultimate timing of eventual MCS dissipation, and location of occurrence, may impact the timing and amount of convective coverage for our area today. Thus, significant changes may ultimately occur later today to the Near Term forecast reasoning.
For the rest of the overnight hours...isolated shower development may try to occur across southeast Ohio (and possibly far NE KY) as greater low level moisture starts to advect into the region. Elsewhere, rather quiet weather should prevail for the remainder of the night.
During the day, today, various ripples in the H5 flow will lead to bouts of DPVA/DNVA occurrences. How much convective activity is initiated with these ripples will depend on:
1: The timing and duration of DPVA.
2: How much cloud cover (especially mid/upper level debris cloud cover) exists this morning from the aforementioned MCS. If morning cloud cover remains thicker than currently expected, then diurnal instability values will be more limited...and thus convective coverage/intensity may be lower/weaker.
3: Any potential remnant MCV that may be located across our CWA (as hinted as by the 00z HRW-ARW and NSSL 4km-WRF).
Given the uncertainty regarding mesoscale variables this morning, I have opted to reflect a gradual increase in POPs throughout the day...with highest POPs peaking during the afternoon/early evening hours.
Potential exists for a few strong to perhaps severe storms this afternoon/evening if CAPE values can become great enough. Quasi-inverted-V forecast soundings and associated DCAPE values in excess of 500 j/kg hint at strong downburst potential with the strongest storms. WBZ and FZL levels are also prog to be a little lower than previous days, which also promotes a small hail threat.
Any convection that does exist this evening should end from west to east overnight as the parent mid level trough axis starts to shift overhead/east.
Highs today are dependent on amount of cloud cover and precip , but should generally be close to seasonal values. Lows tonight should also be close to "normal" for this time of year.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday...
Quiet period of weather in the short term characterized by a departing upper level trof, replaced by s/w ridging. Temperatures may actually top out a few degrees below normal Monday with comfy dewpoints. Some moderation Tuesday before upper heights increase, and temperatures return to above normal readings.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 AM Sunday...
Global models are still in disagreement with extent of upper level ridging across our area late week. I tend to favor the more active GFS given the ridge axis location. This would place our region close to the westerlies and susceptible to ridge runners while tempering the heat a bit.