... High pressure brings a very dry weekend. Turning wet again for the start of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Friday...
Lingering clouds over the eastern part of the CWA are expected to dissipate this morning as high pressure builds into the area. Clear, dry conditions are expected to persist throughout the near term period.
Kept temperatures on the low end of guidance as this high pressure system will bring in very cold air. Below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 20s and 30s and lows in the teens. Some higher elevations may even reach single digits tonight.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 AM Friday...
A very dry continental polar air mass will be in place Saturday morning. This should yield a decent ridge/valley split in low temperatures Saturday morning as southwesterly flow begins to increase across the ridgetops with valleys remaining calm through daybreak. Undercut ridgetops slightly vs central guidance and trended toward/below MOS significantly undercutting central guidance for the more protected valleys. Net result will be mid-upper teens across Lowland ridges and low teens across valleys and mountains. Despite cold start, we'll warm nicely in the upper 40s/lower 50s with the aforementioned increasing southwesterly flow Saturday afternoon.
Undercut central guidance dew points significantly in the mountains Saturday afternoon with near 30C dewpoint depressions just above ridgetop height. Dew points in the teens across the Lowlands and subzero in the mountains will yield minimum RHs values Saturday afternoon in the mid 20s/teens respectively, but given relatively weak flow, do not anticipate any fire weather concerns.
Sunday morning lows won't be quite as chilly, mainly in the mid 20s with afternoon highs in the mid 50s across the lower elevations and mid 40s in the mountains.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 AM Friday...
An upper level low ejecting out of the Four Corners area Sunday morning will approach the forecast area by Sunday night. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night followed by precipitation overspreading the region Monday morning making for a wet start to the work week. Should fall as mostly rain, but given dry low levels ahead of the system could see a few flakes surviving to the surface for a few hours near daybreak, mainly across our northern counties. Rain comes to an end Tuesday morning following passage of a trailing shortwave, but the break will be short-lived with a northern stream system nipping on its heels.
There is still some uncertainty regarding ultimate evolution/track of a northern stream system dropping out of the PacNW Monday arriving in our neck of the woods during the day Wednesday, but based on loose ensemble consensus should see more of a wintry precipitation threat than with the preceding system, especially in the mountains.