... Cloudy today with a few showers along southeast Ohio and West Virginia. Dry weather then persists through the end of the work week. Unsettled weather this weekend with Ian.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1135 AM Wednesday... A few showers are developing across southeast Ohio, otherwise skies are partly to mostly cloudy with light north winds. The current forecast was kept intact as conditions remain on track.
As of 250 AM Wednesday...
A look at the Night Fog difference channel on GOES-16 shows fairly extensive valley fog and low stratus spreading across much of the WV and VA portions of the CWA. This fog will likely persist, and perhaps spread a bit more, through an hour or two after sunrise, when it should burn off. However, as the fog burns off, cloudy skies will build in for much of the day, especially north of I-64. The southern coalfields may be able to remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny through the day, while conversely, the northern mountains may stay mostly cloudy or overcast, even into tonight.
This cloudiness will be courtesy of yet another shortwave disturbance rotating around the broader upper-level trough lingering over eastern Canada and the Northeast US. The shortwave may also bring some more showers to the northern tier of the CWA this afternoon and early evening, similar to the last couple of days. However, overall the confidence and forecast coverage are less than previous days, so POPs are lower as of now. More fog and low stratus are anticipated tonight.
In terms of temperatures, today seems likely to be the coolest day of the week, with lower elevation highs in the upper 50s to mid-60s, while mountains top out in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Lows tonight are generally expected in the upper 30s to mid-40s, though some sheltered areas may get a bit cooler and experience some frost.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Wednesday...
Dry conditions to prevail across the area Thursday night through much of Friday. Cloud cover will be on the increase however, as remnants of Ian move into the southeast U.S., and eventually closer to our area.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1225 PM Wednesday...
Moisture from remnants of Ian will be affecting the area in the first part of the long term period, with rains starting late Friday night/early Saturday morning. This has the potential to be a prolonged period of rainfall across the area, depending on when exactly the models kick the system off to our east. General consensus is for Ian to move into SE coast by late Thursday night, before gradually rotating WNW towards the Appalachian region, where it has the potential to linger into early next week, as an additional upper low drops south into the Ohio Valley region by late Sunday absorbing remnants of low over area.
Strengthening southeast flow Saturday into Sunday will result in decent QPF along the higher terrain, along with gusty winds. There is some indication starting in the models of lower QPF occurring in downslope favored regions of the lowlands during this time period, and suspect this trend will continue to be fine tuned in future runs. However, as the low begins to weaken particularly on Sunday, and with upper low dropping south into the area, will see a greater westward expansion of precipitation, and overall lighter winds.
Low should finally kick out sometime early/middle of next week, but timing on this remains uncertain.
At this time, mountains/southwest VA look to receive the highest qpf amounts, with greater amounts east of our CWA. Period will continue to need to be monitored for potential hydro impacts, mainly due to the duration of rainfall, but impacts remain uncertain at this point.