Snowshoe Mountain Resort

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Snowshoe, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Two rounds of showers and storms today ahead of and along a cold front. High pressure and dry Wednesday. Upper level low brings showers Thursday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1015 PM Monday...

The forcast remains on track and no changes were made at this time.

As of 600 PM Monday...

The entire forecast remains on track. The recent line of showers is currently exiting the eastern mountains to the east, although showers still remain in the northeast mountains. The second feature, a squall line to the west, is draped across the Ohio River Valley and moving relatively fast toward the east. Right now, there is not much in the way of thunderstorm activity, but there has been some observed lightning in the past hour. The stronger energy is more toward the northern half while the southern half of the line is rather weaker and unorganized. After this feature moves across the rest of the area, lingering showers will remain along the mountains into Tuesday with the rest of the area remaining dry.

As of 1230 PM Monday...

Initial band of showers moving east through the CWA at this time. Additional line associated with cold front to the west, and entering western Ohio counties. Initial line should just contain brief gusty showers, with gusts generally in the teens to lower 20 mph, and light to moderate rain. Latest thinking is any severe weather that may occur with initial line should be to the east of our CWA based on timing. There however is still a possibility that storms associated with the cold front and upper trough/low later this evening could contain strong gusty winds despite a lack of instability, as strong forcing, along with deep layer shear of 30-50 kts and low level turning of winds/brief spin up possibility exist out ahead of the front. However, chances are fairly low and the threat is isolated.

Cold front will move east of the area late tonight, with lingering showers and low clouds for Tuesday. In addition, gusty winds are expected on Tuesday with low pressure remaining in vicinity of the region. There will be little overall diurnal change in temperatures tomorrow in these conditions. In addition, there is a small possibility of a few flakes across the higher terrain late Tuesday as moisture wraps around the back side of the low to our east.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday...

A high pressure system will build into the area Tuesday night. This will bring an end to any remaining precipitation. Depending on how quickly skies clear and winds die off, could see some pockets of frost in northeastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia.

The high pressure system will then provide dry and cool weather as it slides across the area on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1210 PM Monday...

An upper level low pressure system will begin affecting the area on Thursday. Models initially in fairly good agreement with this system as it slowly moves across the region Thursday into Saturday, bringing rounds of rain/showers to the area. Differences start to emerge Saturday night into Sunday, with models varying on the timing of the system pulling out of the region.

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