Forecast Discussion
Summary
SYNOPSIS
... Afternoon mountain showers/storms possible today. A moisture starved cold front Tuesday, followed by an upper level disturbance Wednesday. High pressure Thursday into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 745 PM Monday...
A frontal boundary that pushed through earlier is keeping a light northerly flow less than 10 mph across the region this evening. Haze continues to obscure the sky as smoke is transported from Canadian wildfires. Beckley ASOS visibility was reduced to 6SM earlier this evening due to haze. With a ridge building across tonight, haze may become thicker toward morning as a low level inversion traps the smokey air near the surface.
As of 1235 PM Monday...
Overall no major changes to the near term forecast. Frontal boundary looks to be just along/just to the south of the CWA at this time. Went ahead and maintained the slight chance for pops across the mountains this afternoon, but with position of boundary, and drier air moving into the area, have little confidence in anything developing. Otherwise, cloud cover moving south across the area this afternoon will clear the area tonight, allowing for a mostly clear sky with patchy mountain valley fog again. Of course, areas of smoke will continue to affect the area at times in the near term, with the northerly flow transporting it from wildfires in Canada.
Clouds can be expected to increase across the area again on Tuesday with the approach of a front, which will bring a return of precipitation back to the area for Wednesday as a disturbance moves southeast along it towards our area. Otherwise, dry weather expected area wide on Tuesday, with temperatures similar to today.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...
The aforementioned cold front will slowly slide southwards through the region on Tuesday night, but is progged to remain dry as it moves through for much of the region. A better chance for rain will exist on Wednesday as upper level energy, pivoting across the region around a closed (retrograding) upper low to the northeast, swings across the region. This, combined with diurnal heating, will result in isolated to scattered showers/storms across S WV and SW VA, with no severe or hydro issues expected. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is progged, along with much cooler temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will remain in the 70s for the lowlands, with 60s for the higher terrain.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday...
High pressure will gradually build into the region through the Thursday to Saturday timeframe. This results in an extended period of dry weather across the region, all amid seasonably cool/pleasant temperatures. High temperatures on Thursday/Friday will remain in the 70s for the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s for the higher terrain, amid a decent amount of sunshine. Chilly overnight temperatures are expected Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights, with even some patchy frost possible Thursday/Friday mornings in the typical mountain valley cold spots. A warming trend is expected for the weekend, along with the next chance for rain (beginning on Sunday), as a cold front approaches from the northwest.