Timberline Mountain

Davis, WV

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY

Currently

Temperature 21.33°F
Feels Like 8.73°F
Humidity 85%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 13.85mph from the W
Light snow 21°F Light snow
Today Slight Chance Snow Showers then Mostly Sunny
High: 37°F Low: 31°F
Wednesday Chance Snow Showers
High: 38°F Low: 16°F
Thursday Sunny
High: 34°F Low: 21°F
Friday Partly Sunny then Chance Rain And Snow
High: 43°F Low: 34°F
Saturday Light Rain Likely
High: 41°F Low: 19°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry weather returns Tuesday with gusty wind increasing into Wednesday. Scattered snow showers with some heavier embedded rates possible on Wednesday. Wind gusts subside into Thursday as dry weather briefly returns before precipitation chances increase again into the weekend. Temperatures gradually warm through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Brief period of dry weather returns today. - Wind gusts increase this afternoon. - Slight chance of a snow shower north of I-80 tonight.

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Surface riding noses up from the south today and lowering subsidence will put an end to snow showers early this morning giving most of the area a return to dry weather. The upper trough axis gets a kick from a trailing shortwave and pushes out of the area allowing for brief height rises. Much drier air will filter in under high pressure and afternoon dew points will mix out pretty efficiently with forecast soundings showing plenty of boundary layer dry air to tap into, so will lean on NBM10 to account for this. Southwesterly flow will usher in warm advection and kick highs up today nearly 10 degrees from Monday in the low to mid 40s, though still a few degrees below normal.

Another upper wave dives out of the Great Lakes later this afternoon and associated low pressure will slowly meander by to our north into Wednesday. The best forcing and moisture will remain off to our north with low end snow shower chances peaking at 20-30% north of I- 80, and overall high confidence that ridging keeps the rest of the area dry but mostly cloudy through the daytime hours. A surface trough will sag through the area Tuesday night with vorticity advection streaming along with it and bring snow shower chances further south into the PA and WV ridges overnight with hi res ensemble probability for measurable snowfall highest in the WV ridges at 50-60%.

Wind gusts will also increase as the gradient tightens and 40-50 knot wind at 850 mb mix down, though the highest gusts will come on Wednesday. Ensemble probability of exceeding 30 mph gusts increases to 70-90% primarily south and west of Pittsburgh and in the ridges tonight. Confidence in gusts exceeding advisory criteria of 46 mph in eastern Tucker county is >90%, so have issued a Wind Advisory running from tonight through Wednesday night to cover this threat.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered snow showers continue Wednesday with best chances for I- 80 corridor and ridges. - Light accumulation possible with heavier embedded rates. - Strong wind gusts continue on Wednesday. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Colder air aloft moves in on Wednesday in northwest flow as the upper trough sags south with several shortwaves rounding its base. Low level lapse rates will steepen as a result and with the passage of a secondary cold front, we'll see snow chances continue on Wednesday again primarily for the I-80 corridor with the best moisture. Snow showers will develop in the morning in convergence ahead of the boundary continuing into the afternoon hours before a weak secondary trough passage later in the evening reinvigorates additional showers.

Forecast soundings show some instability developing with ensemble probability of >50 J/kg greater than 70%, and the snow squall parameter is elevated, so the potential for some heavier banded snow showers is there. The best moisture depth will be in the northern half of our area where soundings show saturation extending into a ~3kft deep dendritic growth zone allowing for another day similar to Monday with heavier bursts of snow. Given the unfavorable diurnal timing, thinking it will again be tough to accumulate efficiently on surfaces, and any heavier bands will result in more of a visibility concern, but higher rates may overcome the warmer ground and put down a quick accumulation. Low level flow oriented with more of a westerly component ahead of the front may keep the strongest bands and highest coverage north of Pittsburgh. It will be a day where the higher totals, again mostly confined to grassy/elevated surfaces, are localized to areas that see heavier snow showers, most likely north of Pittsburgh and within the ridges. Ensemble probability for measurable snow is highest (50-60%) north of I-80 and in the ridges where upslope flow and marginal instability will aid in higher totals.

Strong wind gusts continue on Wednesday with a 60-90% chance of exceeding 30 mph areawide, and up to 50 mph in eastern Tucker County with aid from a tight gradient and 40-50 knot low level jet. Gusts will cease after sunset with the loss of the jet and boundary layer mixing.

By Thursday, the upper trough pivots out through Nova Scotia as a brief bout of surface ridging noses in from the north. This should shut off any lingering lake effect precipitation Thursday morning and return dry weather for a day. Ensembles show a low probability chance that the trough could linger a bit longer which would keep snow shower chances around into the late morning on Thursday, but any additional accumulation would be minimal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. - Rain/snow chances return Friday into Saturday. - Drying out for the latter half of the weekend. ----------------------------------------------------------------

Things then become a bit more uncertain with the evolution of a flat shortwave sliding through the Great Lakes on Friday in relatively zonal flow. A southern stream shortwave simultaneously slides through the Southeast and attempts to phase with the northern wave. Low pressure looks to develop across the Southeast and turn up the coast. The latest ensemble trends have taken a turn to a slower evolution, thus earlier phasing of the waves, and a strengthening low a bit further west. The result is higher precipitation chances continuing from Friday into the first half of Saturday for our area, and NBM PoPs have reflected this trend. Precipitation type will depend on the exact track of the low, but ensemble probabilities are favoring snow to the north and rain further south, and an unsettled start to the weekend.

Ensembles seem to also provide a bit of consistency to the forecast for the latter half of the weekend with high pressure building to our north and returning dry weather for Sunday and temperatures holding just below average.

Timberline Resort