Timberline Mountain

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Davis, WV

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Spotty thunderstorms will return this afternoon, with a greater threat for stronger storms this evening. A few will produce damaging winds and large hail. Unsettled conditions will continue through Tuesday, along with otherwise warm temperatures and uncomfortable humidity levels.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A lull in activity is expected through much of this morning before increasing upper shortwave support aids additional thunderstorm development this afternoon, focused along the quasistationary frontal boundary draped over the region. Once again, latest CAM cycles advertise differing solutions. However, diurnal heating and moist conditions should yield rapidly steepening llvl lapse rates by mid afternoon, especially across northwest PA. This is the most likely region for severe storm development, as highlighted by SPC's slight risk. However, severe storms will be possible across the region this afternoon and evening.

Somewhat unidirectional shear profiles are certainly less favorable than Friday, but overall bulk shear should be conducive for severe storm development and maintenance through the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with any severe thunderstorms. Meager 0-1km SRH should minimize overall tornado potential.

Convective activity should wave late this evening as the shortwave shifts east and instability decreases. However, iso/sct showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through the overnight for southern portions of the area. With no significant regime change, overnight low temperatures will again be quite warm.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak ridging will build across the region on Sunday, which should limit afternoon convection to general pop-up thunderstorms. Kept chance/slight chance thunderstorms for the area through the afternoon.

Better organization for showers and thunderstorms is expected on Monday as a deepening upper trough crosses the Great Lakes with low pressure and advancing cold front at the sfc. Cold frontal passage will eventually end rain chances late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Warmer than average temperatures will continue through the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather is expected to return by midweek as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend through the week. Rain chances will return on Friday with crossing low pressure.

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