Timberline Mountain

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Davis, WV

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Colder weather is expected for the rest of the week. Snow showers will be possible Thursday and Friday north of I 80 and in the ridges. A low pressure system may bring widespread snow late this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Only minor changes for the evening update...PoPs were adjusted in line with the latest hires model guidance. Some minor tweaks to the overnight snow accumulations and temperatures.

A passing area of low pressure will bring snow chances late tonight through Thursday morning near and south of the Pennsylvania border. Lifting mechanisms will primarily rely on vorticity advection, but lack of moisture as a whole is noted so have kept it forecast as light snow with saturation mainly above 600mb, and lack of convection within the boundary layer.

Cold advection and northwest flow will promote lake enhanced and upslope snow showers and flurries through the rest of Thursday.

Nearly steady temperatures and cold wind chills should be anticipated as well.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Little change Thursday night and Friday under nnwly flow via strengthening low pressure aided by vorticity advection and a polar jet streak. Accumulation looks to be 1-2 inches over the I-80 corridor and ridges.

Cooler than average temperatures are expected. With breezy conditions likely, wind chills will dip into the single digits for most of the area Friday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... It is becoming likely that a low pressure system undergoing cyclogenesis will propagate through the Midwest, followed by the Ohio Valley late this weekend and early next week. It appears several strong ascent mechanisms will be in play, with ample moisture. There still remain many questions regarding precipitation type, timing, and consequently, accumulation, but details will become more clear with several more model initialization periods.

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