Wintergreen Resort

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Wintergreen, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

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High pressure will build over the region today through Sunday and move offshore Sunday night. A pair of low pressure systems will impact the area next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure is now well offshore, and nearly all clouds have cleared out of the area. Northerly flow in the wake of the systems is advecting cold and very dry air into the area, with temperatures mainly in the 20s and dewpoints crashing into the single digits. With the lack of moisture at low levels and subsidence at mid-upper levels immediately behind the departing trough axis, 100 percent sunshine is expected today. It will feel chilly, with temperatures only climbing into the upper 30s and a north wind of around 10-15 mph through the morning. Winds will gradually weaken through the afternoon, before going either light out of the WSW or calm overnight tonight. Conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling at locations that ultimately do go calm, with clear skies and low dewpoints in place. Lows tonight will be in the teens for most outlying areas, with 20s in the immediate urban areas.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Northwesterly flow aloft will persist this weekend. At lower levels, high pressure will continue to build in on Saturday and remain in control on Sunday. Winds will be light all weekend, and will switch around to southerly Sunday afternoon as the area of high pressure progresses offshore. Dry conditions and sunny skies are expected both days, with highs in the low 50s on Saturday and mid-upper 50s on Sunday. High clouds may begin to work back in Sunday Night, but conditions should remain dry.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A southern stream disturbance and associated sfc low pressure will move from the mid MS valley Mon night to the upper OH valley Tue afternoon before system weakening and redeveloping off of the Delmarva late Tue night. Rain is likely Mon-Mon night due to overrunning with precip becoming more showery and spotty on Tue as mid-level dry slot moves in and area gets into the warm sector.

A second srn stream disturbance may merge/phase or interact with a northern stream system Wed-Thu. Models respond by developing a more robust sfc system that tracks generally west of the Appalachians Wed to the Northeast Thu. Depending on the exact track and strength of this system, it has the potential to bring a variety of hazards from t-storms in the warm sector to accumulating snows to the mountains and strong winds in the post-frontal environment. Modified Arctic air will follow behind this system for the second half of next week with temps averaging 10-15F below normal for late February. Thu Feb 27 will be BWI's last chance to see a trace of snow or more during the month of February. There will be potential for some snow squalls in the strengthening NW flow Thu-Thu night.

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