Wintergreen Resort

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Wintergreen, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will return briefly Sunday, followed by a stronger cold front on Monday. After another brief return of high pressure, a larger storm system may affect the region later next week. This may bring wintry precipitation to portions of the area by mid-week. High pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weak cold front which worked its way through the region is currently sitting across the North Carolina coast. In the wake of this boundary passage, west-to-east oriented high pressure has filled in from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. This will make for a chillier night as temperaturse drop back to near or below freezing. Aside from passing high clouds, winds have become light which will allow for optimal radiational cooling effects.

Sunshine tomorrow will give way to increasing clouds later in the day as a disturbance moves out of the south-central US northeastward toward our region. Highs tomorrow will be near normal for this time of year, compared to today's relatively mild readings.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A southeasterly low-level flow will push moisture into the region ahead of the disturbance from the southwest. Some showers and/or drizzle will occur later tomorrow night, especially near and east of I-95. The southerly flow and clouds will keep temps milder. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

A strong cold front then races east across the region on Monday. Guidance continues to dwindle much of the precip as it moves east of the mountains, but maintain chance pops. Winds likely gusty with the front itself. Until the front passes, temps should turn out mild with readings reaching the 60s.

Colder and breezy behind the front Monday night, with lows slightly below normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As the prior cold front exits to the east, a colder airmass will move into the region as high pressure builds briefly on Tuesday before the next system approaches on Wednesday.

Guidance suggests a wetter system with the potential for a mix or snow, mostly for areas west of I-95, but there is potential for accumulation to the east. GFS is being very consistent run-to-run regarding timing and temperatures, putting the areas north of US-50 below freezing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and the Canadian seems to be in agreement.

Drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures are expected after the exit of the mid-week system.

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