Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Snow showers end in the mountains tonight. Chilly airmass lingers Wednesday. Dry for the second half of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM Tuesday...

Some breaks in the cloud cover has actually allowed for some convection to take place in the clearer portions of the sky, setting off snow showers over the western zones that have been able to utilize what is left of a shrinking moisture depth. A quick coating is possible, but the wind has dried out many of the surfaces, and the snow showers are more likely to just blow around in the wind that still blows at 15-25mph in the lowlands. For the northeast mountains and adjacent lowlands, the advisory is still in effect through the evening, and some flurries are likely into the overnight in this region. Temperatures will drop tonight, giving us readings more appropriate for January than mid November, and with winds still working across the ridge tops, the apparent temperature will drop below -10, and hence, the Wind Chill Advisory in place.

Airmass slowly modifies Wednesday, and the key is slowly. The precipitation will be gone, but the temperatures improving by 10 or degrees area wide will only bring the lowlands back into the mid to upper 30s to perhaps 40 degrees in a few locations. Freezing will be a tough mark to achieve in the northeast mountains yet.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 212 PM Tuesday...

Cloud cover will be on the increase Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough and associated cold front that will be moving across the region. However, moisture with this feature will be limited in the low-levels so this should not result in anything more than an increase in mid/upper level clouds. Thus, will leave PoPs out of the forecast on Thursday as the dry frontal passage occurs Thursday afternoon and evening. Clouds will then be on a decreasing trend Thursday night as high pressure in the upper Midwest builds into the area. This will set the stage for a mainly sunny day Friday with highs in the mid/upper 40s across the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 212 PM Tuesday...

High pressure passes well north of the region on Saturday and with the low-level flow out of the NNE, another chilly day is expected with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal on Saturday afternoon.

A gradual warming trend will then begin as the flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of an upper level trough that will be moving across the central US Sunday into Monday. 850mb temperatures will increase to around 3C to 4C across the region by Monday with high temperatures at or just slightly below normal. Models show shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough moving in the Gulf Coast region on Monday, leading to cyclogenesis off the coast of the southeast US early next week. Thus, precipitation chances across our area are low as this system should mainly stay southeast of the area early next week. However, there could be a slight increase in PoPs towards the very end of the long term period depending on the track of the aforementioned system. For now, have maintained a consensus blend of models which supports low PoPs moving into the area Monday night through Tuesday, but confidence in this potential remains low at this time.

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