... Cold front crosses tonight. Very cold early next week. High pressure crossing midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday...
The winter wx advisory continues across the northern mountains where temperatures will remain below freezing through the afternoon hours with precipitation moving into the area in ernest, especially on the ridges. Amounts to two tenths are possible and combined with increasing winds could result in some power outages later today.
Elsewhere, low level WAA continues beneath beefy inversion with highs reaching into the lower 50s this afternoon across portions of the Lowlands and the banana belt downslope region along and just east of I79 corridor. Strong low level jet will remain in place but with general upglide along the isentropes, I am only expecting gusts 15 to 25 kts outside of the mountain ridges. There may be some higher gusts as the initial baroclinic zone crosses this afternoon but with the lingering inversion and vectors parallel to thermal gradient...the higher gusts should stay confined to the higher hilltops and ridgetops.
The true cold front and subsequent CAA will cross this evening with scattered showers changing to snow showers late . It is during this time that gusty winds will develop areawide as decent cross isobaric flow develops...though jet will have weakened considerably by that time. I have gusts flirting with advisory criteria in the high elevation zone in the northern mountains overnight but after collaboration with neighboring offices, elected to just keep a mention in the HWO. Surface temperatures will fall behind the front but likely take until the predawn to significantly fall across se OH and the WV mountains and around dawn elsewhere.
It will be a cold day Sunday with an abundance of stratocu and mountain snow showers and perhaps some flurries elsewhere. Accumulations in the northern mountains look to average a couple of wind blown inches. Highs will likely occur around sunrise and slowly fall during the day. Afternoon reading will likely stay in the 20s in the Lowlands and upper single digits to teens in the mountains, depending on elevation. It will remain windy with gusts around 20 kts in the Lowlands and 30-35 kts in the mountains, making for a bone chilling feel in the air. Wind chill values look to reach criteria in the highest elevations in the northern mountains. However, this should be limited to above 4000 feet during the day, negating the need for an advisory at this time.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday...
Lingering upslope snow and flurries will continue Sunday night into Monday as cold air advection continues. Undercut low consensus blend low temperatures a bit Sunday night and Monday night. Enough flow remains Sunday night that mountain ridges will have wind chill values in the -10F to -15F range. Will likely need a wind chill advisory, but will let current WSW run its course first. Thus, continue mention of wind chill hazards in HWO. Upper level low passes to our west and south Monday night into Tuesday, which will keep cold temperatures in place with generally dry conditions. Surface high pressure begins nosing in from the west late Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure crosses the region mid week, lingering across the East Coast into late week. This will spell a mainly dry long term, with moderating temperatures as the high moves east and flow turns more southerly. ECMWF is quicker than the GFS brining in the next system Friday. So have low end POPs creeping in from the west through the day Friday, steadily increasing into Friday night.