Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure in the area through the middle of next week in a warming trend. Next frontal system late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 900 AM Saturday...

Only minor tweaks this morning as forecast package is on track.

As of 610 AM Saturday...

The forecast remains on track and only nudged temperatures slightly to adjust towards observations and trends. Also, added in slightly more cloud coverage late tonight as newer model guidance is picking up on transportation of some low level moisture in from the northwest. This moisture will mainly come from the Great Lakes and wrap around anticyclonic flow courtesy of the sfc high pressure to the west which will cause some low to mid clouds to approach late tonight and exit quickly by the early morning.

As of 200 AM Saturday...

Another dry and rather cold day on tap for the area. High pressure still in control and the benign weather pattern will allow for mostly clear skies by the afternoon with no precipitation on the horizon. Winds will generally be light and pick up out of the northwest with likely gusts in the teens going into the evening. Had to adjust slightly higher than what guidance was providing. Thereafter, winds will follow their usually diurnal trend and relax shortly after sunset. Temperatures will start off rather cold this morning, around 10 degrees below seasonable, with below freezing temperatures area-wide and low to mid 20's in the lowlands with low to upper teens in the mountains. Had to adjust lower from guidance as it presented a warm bias and added in micro climate cold spots to the forecast to account for optimal radiational cooling areas for this morning and again for tonight as another cold one is expected. Temperatures will moderate some by this afternoon with highs reaching into the low to mid 40's while the higher elevations and mountains struggle to break freezing.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 AM Saturday...

Dry through the period. The last of the waves dropping north to south on the back side of a closed low over Atlantic Canada reinforces the below normal airmass for the CWA, and will see the system finally kick out as ridging amplifies over the central part of the CONUS. A Pacific Coast trough generates low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies, and the pressure gradient between that surface low and the high now over the SE CONUS coast strengthens. Southwesterly flows become dominant, heights and low level temperatures increase through the short term translating to lowland 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 AM Saturday...

Frontal zone approaches and will finally see chances for rain re emerge in the late Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Warm southwesterly flow persists, with guidance spreading and the higher outliers giving lowland 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Will see if other factors like cloud cover and weak waves in the mass fields cap this temperature potential in coming model runs, but the trend will remain for above normal temperatures. Also unsure about thunder at this point as dewpoints will not spike like the temperatures will, and will not have any in the forecast for now.

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