... Disturbances move across the area tonight. Cold front Monday. High pressure middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Saturday...
Models showing another wave moving across the area tonight, mainly affecting northern WV and OH. Models are still struggling with the waves in this atmosphere however, so confidence in timing and placement of precipitation is not great. Will have to closely monitor training storms if the wave does develop, as a few of the meso models are showing some precipitation bullseyes (while others are not).
Models showing dry air in the 650 mb to 800 mb range moving into the area on Sunday. This will help prevent convection over much of the area, with just a small chance across northern and eastern portions of the region.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Saturday...
Thunderstorms rooted aloft at the nose of an H850 jet are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across our northern counties. These storms should dissipate shortly after sunrise as H850 flow weakens.
Weak ridging building into the region during the daylight hours should allow for strong insolation yielding highs across the lower elevations in the mid to upper 80s. This, coupled with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s should yield MLCAPE of 1500-2000J/kg with weak capping thanks to the aforementioned ridge. With the lack of any synoptic focusing mechanisms for ascent and deep layer shear decreasing to around 25KTs by the afternoon, would expect mainly pop- up convection with perhaps a few multi-cellular clusters to develop as capping is locally violated and would generally expect coverage to remain isolated to scattered. The main threats with this activity will be localized gusty downburst winds and locally heavy downpours.
Latest NHC guidance on potential tropical cyclone three continues to bend the track farther south of us with minimal contribution to column moisture Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 AM Saturday...
A hot and unstable airmass in place Monday afternoon will yield scattered thunderstorms, with a better focus for convection along and ahead of a cold front approaching the Middle Ohio Valley by late Monday afternoon. Based on favorable frontal passage timing during peak heating, should be able to realize moderate to strong surface based destabilization ahead of the cold front amid deep layer shear of 35-40KTs. If current frontal timing pans out, this should result in a decent line of storms crossing the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening with the main threat being damaging winds. The entire forecast area is in either a slight or marginal risk of severe storms based on the latest day 3 outlook and there is at least some potential for this to increase over the next couple days if timing remains favorable. With the strongly forced nature of the line, convection should be fairly progressive over much of the forecast area which should help to mitigate high water concerns (contingent on what falls over the next couple days). One exception may be in the mountains where the front hangs up Monday night and doesn't exit until during the day Tuesday where a longer dwell time of heavy precipitation may be realized.
Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions are expected to take hold for Wednesday and Thursday before heat and humidity begins to build once again for Friday.