Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Less active end to the week, though afternoon showers/storms remain possible along the mountains. Next system arrives this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 AM Wednesday...

Updated temperatures, cloud cover, and PoPs over the next several hours to match the current trends. Persistent low stratus and fog across west central West Virginia and northeast Kentucky should mix out within the next hour or two. Otherwise, a quiet late morning into the early afternoon is expected, with isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. The best rain chances will continue to be across northern portions of the Mid-Ohio Valley into northeast WV, where upper level forcing is more focused.

As of 340 AM Wednesday...

Low clouds and patchy valley fog have developed once again in a persistent low pressure pattern. Have kept trends cloudier today with temperatures near normal. Showers are currently moving across the northeastern areas of West Virginia this morning and are expected to become wide spread by the afternoon. Dynamics are expected to be weaker today as the parent upper low begins to lift northeast this afternoon. There is some uncertainty on rain coverage, as the trough axis that was set across our mountain foothills during the previous days, completely weakens by the afternoon. Convection today will mainly be diurnally driven with minimum upper level support. A few bouts of heavy rainfall are possible as showers and storms will have little movement. Rain activity tapers off by early tonight with patchy valley fog expected late as weak ridging builds across from the west.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 440 AM Wednesday...

500mb heights gradually rise overhead as a low pressure system centered over New England lifts northeast out of the country by the end of the work week. The departure of the low is expected to result in quieter weather across much of the area Thursday and Friday, though passing shortwave energy could support a few diurnally driven showers and storms primarily along and near the mountains. At least a slight chance of showers persists into Friday night as moisture begins to increase ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.

High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. A warming trend continuing through the end of the work week, is then expected to raise temperatures by a few degrees for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 440 AM Wednesday...

Moisture increases over the area on Saturday as a shortwave passes overhead and then a low pressure system approaches from the northwest. The probability of showers and thunderstorms increases during the latter half of the weekend as the low shifts into the the Great Lakes region, pushing a cold front and upper trough towards the area. Models indicate the trough and front continue to progress into the area early in the work week, then solutions begin to diverge regarding the timing and placement of the trough as it begins to shift northeast.

Daytime temperatures are expected to range from near to below normal from Saturday through early next week.

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