... Dry and warmer forecast is set for rest of the Memorial Day weekend. High pressure surface/aloft builds into the middle of next week. Next cold front arrives by Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday...
Taking a look at satellite imagery, the low deck of clouds over the area is breaking up nicely as dry air continues to infiltrate the area. This also means that less chances of any rain showers will be in the forecast from here on out and according to radar, only some light sprinkles are being observed from these clouds, and most of the activity is confined to the northeast mountains. The upper low pulls further and further away toward the northeast which will cause chances to diminish by the end of mid-afternoon leaving the area dry through the rest of this period. Upper level wind support pulls away with the aforementioned low leaving mainly calm winds overnight with mostly clear skies (for the most part) as high pressure continues to strengthen.
The main forecast conundrum is picking out how much fog will develop and how much of a restriction to visibility will it cause. Current thinking is that due to a decent soak from yesterday we should see areas of fog at the very least over the higher terrain. Some development could push into the lowlands and maybe even further toward Ohio, but would be less dense there. Temperatures will be able to radiate down to dewpoints which will also aide in the development of fog overnight, unless more clouds do happen to roll in (although not expecting). This equates to overnight lows around the low to mid 50's in the lowlands and low to upper 40's in the mountains.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 233 PM Saturday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft dominants through the short term with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be warm but with fairly comfortable humidity levels, which will allow for cool overnight lows.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 233 PM Saturday...
Heights drop over the Ohio Valley beginning Wednesday in response to a deepening trough over central Canada. This pushes a cold front southward through our region on Thursday with a surface high building in quickly by Friday and Saturday, along with much cooler temperatures.
Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with the synoptic features, with some minor timing differences in the frontal boundary and associated showers/storms. The NBM looked reasonable with chances for showers/storms increasing across our far northwest counties Wednesday afternoon, then pushing through our region on Thursday, peaking Thursday afternoon, before diminishing from northwest to southeast Thursday night. Any severe threat will depend on the timing of the front and whether we can destabilize sufficiently, but shear parameters look marginal at best. While the timing of the exit to the precipitation was sped up a bit, a small chance a showers lingers in the mountains into Friday.