Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Mainly dry conditions continue into the evening. Unsettled weather arrives for tonight and continues through the work week amid a broad low pressure area maintaining residence nearby.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 555 PM Monday...

Made a few more changes to the forecast. Temperatures across parts of the mountainous counties have fallen rapidly in spots, most notably Randolph and Pocahontas counties, where temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are being observed. Have adjusted hourly grids for this, but do expect a slight uptick in temperatures or at least near steady overnight, as a warm front gradually lifts north into the region. There is still the possibility for a very brief wintry mix across the highest elevations of Pocahontas county, but still looking to be very brief and very spotty if it occurs, so expect no headlines.

Did elect to add thunder into the forecast for Tuesday due to weak instability and expected position of frontal boundary bisecting CWA. Bulk of thunder potential looks to lie south of the OH River. Strong storms are not expected, but rainfall could be briefly enhanced in storms.

As of 415 PM Monday... Lowered dew points to reflect current trends/drier air still in place. Otherwise, no changes needed at this time.

As of 1235 PM Monday...

An upper level pattern of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over most of the US will allow moisture and warmer air to flow up into the area during the near term period.

Cloud cover will gradually increase with increasing moisture today, then precipitation begins spreading across the CWA this evening into the night. Precipitation coverage may initially be spotty until dry air is overcome, then coverage becomes more widespread for the latter half of the night. On Tuesday, a surface low tracks northeast out of the south central US and edges into the Ohio Valley allowing wet weather to continue throughout the day.

Rain will be the dominant precipitation type across the area through Tuesday, though a little freezing rain could mix in for the higher ridges of the northeast mountains tonight. Little to no ice accumulations are expected to occur before a changeover to rain occurs; therefore, no products have been issued.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to lower into the 40s for the majority of the area and 30s in the higher elevations. Daytime temperatures will then be rather mild on Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to low 60s across much of the CWA, and mid 40s to low 50s in the higher elevations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1250 PM Monday...

The region will be situated between expansive Arctic low pressure centered over Southern Nunavut and tropical high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico through the short term period. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, the southern contribution looks to win out with continued warm air advection through the period amidst unseasonably mild conditions. This yields mainly light, but efficient rainfall with warm cloud depths noted near 10kft. Couldn't rule out a few rumbles of thunder with this activity as well with elevated parcel equilibriums approaching the -20C isotherm especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will continue a slight chance for this potential.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1250 PM Monday...

The region remains sandwiched between tropical high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Arctic low pressure just west of Hudson Bay Thursday into Friday resulting in continued wet weather with perhaps another inch of rainfall. A shortwave emerging from the Central Plains Thursday night should assist in suppressing the southern ridge as the northern low rotates back toward the North Pole. This feature will also provide the impetus for an uptick in rainfall rates as it crosses into the Great Lakes Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Generally dry conditions are then expected for the weekend as transient ridging and surface high pressure builds in its wake.

Significant model differences begin to emerge for the next work week, but would favor a return to unsettled weather over the status quo.

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