... Periods of snow are expected as weak clipper systems cross Sunday and Tuesday. Frigid temperatures midweek and beyond with high pressure into Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 615 PM Saturday... No changes necessary.
As of 345 PM Saturday...
Added Vinton county into the advisory as forecast snowfall is pretty much the same for them as other Ohio counties with the same criteria currently in the advisory.
As of 245 PM Saturday...
Stubborn stratus and stratocumulus over the southern coalfields has finally dissipated yielding mainly clear skies aside from some high clouds beginning to work into the region ahead of a clipper system slated to arrive Sunday. These clouds are expected to thicken through the overnight and coupled with increasing southwesterly flow and dew points in the teens, should yield a slightly warmer night than last night for most with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s across the lower elevations and lower teens in the mountains for Sunday morning.
Aforementioned clipper arrives early Sunday spreading a quick shot of snow across our northern counties with light snow transitioning to rain and snow across the south during the afternoon. Accumulations will be generally light, 1 to 2 inches across our northern 2 tiers of counties and in the mountains, up to an inch a county or two south of the northern tier of counties, and trace to half an inch for the remainder of our counties. There is still some uncertainty as to how far south the maximum QPF axis will track, but for now will include portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia in a low end winter weather advisory for 1 to 3 inches of snow. Synoptic snow begins to exit east by Sunday evening with some lake enhanced showers likely lingering into the overnight.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday...
This period starts off ending the snow by early morning Monday with only additional snowfall amounts of about a half an inch or so, slightly higher in the peaks and ridges along the mountains. Long range models do hint on some flurry potential into mid to late morning, however short range do not agree with any snow falling in that time range. Decided to go with adding flurries to the forecast and cutting them off at 12Z, slightly after the short range guidance.
The same stacked low pressure system over Canada that initiated this clipper with its upper level trough across the area will again swing another one in for midday Monday, just shortly after the previous snow subsides in the mountains. This time the clipper is further north so the impacts will be less and snowfall amounts will only reach a good dusting for most of the area and up to 1-2 inches for the northern counties and northeast mountains (localized higher amounts possible in the northeast mountains up to 3 inches or slightly more). As the system exits to the east lingering showers may turn to a wintry mix (rain/snow/sleet) for the lowlands as temperatures warm up during the daytime on Tuesday. The mountains may only see additional accumulations of little to none as westerly flow kicks in and most of the energy will have moved out of the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure moves in for Wednesday with anomalously cold temperatures coming right back to the area. This is due to northwesterly flow and the upper trough from its parent system over Canada moving east which will cause optimal cold air advection. High pressure will last through Thursday before moving off to the northeast. Long range models sort of struggle on the initial setup of the next system anticipated for Friday. The initial extent of the upper trough is all over in the models, although initial timing is fairly in line, therefore accepted model blended guidance for the start of precipitation chances which equates to spreading in chances of from west to east early Friday morning
It looks like long range models have a decent cold front sliding through with possibly a surface wave riding along the front as the front pushes through, at least according to the GFS. The EURO grabs on to this idea slightly later with the Canadian struggling to agree. Since this wave seems to be in somewhat agreement between the models, the outcome would likely enhance precipitation chances and amounts. Accepted guidance since it seemed reasonable for this far out.
As this system exits late Friday to the east it will collide with a system originating off the coast of Florida and help the new system develop into a bomb cyclogenesis as it rides up along the coast toward New England. The wrap around flow of that new system should provide chances of precipitation to our area for Saturday and possibly into Sunday likely in the form of snow, therefore added in some chances in the northeast mountains due to the fact guidance did not have any.