Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Cold front crosses the area overnight. Unsettled weather at times possible through the week. A relatively fair weather weekend. Active pattern returns for next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1015 PM Wednesday...

Expanded PoPs a bit further back to the northwest with a few additional showers along the lead edge of a cooler airmass evident on radar. Otherwise, no changes needed. Starting to see some patchy fog/low stratus on webcams, but drier and better mixed airmass moving in should limit overall fog extent by daybreak Thursday.

As of 730 PM Wednesday...

Made some further adjustments to lower temperatures beneath and in the wake of precipitation through the remainder of the evening. Also added in a little fog in the lull between precipitation ending and cold frontal passage late tonight/early Thursday, mainly for more protected valley locations. Otherwise, earlier forecast update is on track.

As of 345 PM Wednesday...

Increased PoPs and lowered temperatures beneath band of persistent rain showers associated with a departing H300 jet streak. Should see this activity shift south and east through late this evening ahead of slow moving cold front. Despite clearing skies behind the cold front, dry air advection coupled with light northwesterly flow should serve to limit any fog coverage to more protected valleys heading into Thursday morning.

As of 238 PM Wednesday...

A closed upper level low digs from Lake Erie, southeast across PA/WV border tonight. This low will continue to provide some upper level forcing to maintain at least light rain showers along our northeast and central mountains tonight. A cold front will sweep the area after 00Z this evening, taking most of the rain showers with it overnight. Therefore, coded likely PoPs mainly over the eastern mountains and chance PoPs across the adjacent western foothills for tonight.

Abundant clouds will keep a mild night with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s central CWA, into the upper 30s northeast mountains and portions of southeast OH. Much drier and cooler weather can be expected Thursday into the first half of the weekend under a weak surface high pressure. Temperatures on Thursday will be few degrees below normal with highs reaching the mid 50s lowlands, ranging to the lower 40s northeast mountains.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Wednesday...

For the start of this period an upper low to the north will keep moving east promoting possible shower activity in the northeast mountains, leaving the rest of the area fairly dry. Morning lows in the mountains will be near zero degrees or below especially in the peaks and ridges, but depending on how much cold air aloft will exist will determine whether or not the area observes any frozen hydrometeors, which will likely be in the form of very light snow and/or a light rain and snow mix. Moisture thickness erodes quickly so not thinking much will fall in the way of snow or rain and may just turn to drizzle as it exits.

Any activity should subside by the early afternoon and thereafter the entire area endures a break from unsettled weather until Saturday morning. Starting Saturday, temperatures will be on the chilly side reaching just over 40 degrees for the southern half of the CWA and mid to upper 30's for the entire northern half of the CWA. Chances of rain showers will start to exist for the very southern portions of the area as an upper level wave brings in a very weak surface trough while temperatures climb to the low 60's through the afternoon, therefore expecting an all rain regime. By Saturday evening, fair weather once again returns and persists into the next period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday...

For Sunday, unsettled weather goes into effect by the late morning as an upper level short wave trough heads toward our direction from the west. This feature will continue to promote showers through Monday as well as just below seasonable temperatures. A short break for Tuesday is possible before broad upper level low pressure over Canada ejects a few short waves toward the area which will likely keep unsettled weather and slightly cooler than seasonable temperatures around for the rest of the extended period and beyond.

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