... As the rain and storm chances tapers off this late afternoon, a cold front brings them right back for Saturday. High pressure brings drier weather for the first half of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM Friday.
Adjusted PoPs and weather grids per latest radar imagery showing shower activity across the southern coalfields associated with a mid level disturbance. Coded categorical PoPs, and removed thunderstorms from forecast during the morning hours. Rest of forecast remains on track.
As of 215 AM Friday...
Rain and clouds persist through the morning as an upper level vort lobe passes through the area. This will help promote increasing chances for showers and possible thunderstorms through the afternoon. As the feature passes expect clouds to sail with it allowing temperatures to have a last attempt at rising any further and climb into the low 80's with the last few hours of sunshine along with slightly warmer and cooler temps along the Ohio River and mountains, respectively. Due to previously fallen rain along with steady light flow and scattered clouds overnight, fog should be able to flourish in some areas where there are clear spots overhead, however it is all dependent upon the clouds and how much we get overhead. If the forecast holds up there's a good chance for some fairly dense fog in certain areas. The area is set to predominately remain dry from the evening until the next period where chances for rain come back to fruition.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 232 AM Friday...
Main forecast challenge for Saturday will be convective chances as a surface boundary is prog to push south across the CWA during the day. Most guidance suites bring minimal coverage of convection with FROPA, exception being the NAM and the NSSL- WRF (to an extent). Both of these models are much higher with expected surface dewpoints and thus produce greater CAPE values...and eventually some pretty intense convection. The more reasonable solution is to discount the more robust NAM and go with low end chances of convection along the front Saturday for mainly the southern half of the CWA. Definitely nothing to cancel any outdoor events over as coverage should not be significant nor prolonged in duration. Front should clear the southern CWA by late in the day with much less humid feeling conditions occurring in its wake. Sunday will likely be the better of the two weekend days with pleasant weather conditions for early June as high pressure influences the region.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 232 AM Friday...
Rapid warming trend expected for the first half of next work week as H5 ridging strengthens across the region. Just how strong the ridge becomes will be dependent on what becomes of what's expected to be TS Cristobal across the N Gulf...and where it goes thereafter. Overall, am expecting very warm to hot conditions to develop, potentially peaking on Tuesday. For Wed and beyond, the forecast will depend on whether the remnants of Cristobal move all the way up the MS River Valley, or shift east across the Ohio River Valley. For now, have indicated a break down in the ridge for the second half of next week with potential troughing building in by late in the forecast.