Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry and mild through Sunday. The next system arrives Sunday night, with a cold front Monday. System Tuesday night into Wednesday could provide wintry weather to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 1100 PM Saturday...

Updated temperatures to reflect current colder trends.

As of 705 PM Saturday...

Minor edits were made to the temperature grids this evening to decrease temperature cooling trends which reflect colder temperatures currently observed across northern counties.

As of 1255 PM Saturday...

It's a battle between two dry disturbances this afternoon as low pressure begrudgingly departs to the south and east while high pressure invades from the Great Lakes region. As the high inches closer into the area, lingering stratocumulus hovering over the southern coalfields will dissipate and depart with the parent low. A clear night is then on tap for tonight, with a ridge/valley split in temperatures likely to arise due to radiational cooling along with low level moisture sneaking in before active weather returns on Sunday and Monday.

A warm front that has been loitering in close quarters to the area will lift through the Central Appalachians, yielding an increase in clouds coverage throughout the day Sunday and perhaps some light precipitation in the Ohio River Valley late in the day. Chances increase for showers across the area just beyond the current forecast period. Temperatures on Sunday will run a few degrees above the observed high for today (Saturday) as southwesterly flow pulls in warmer air and an increase in moisture. Surface temperatures are then anticipated to drop with the passage of a cold front to open up the start of the new work week.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Saturday...

Gusty southerly winds in advance of a cold front increase moisture Sunday night, providing a chance of some pre-frontal showers. Chances for showers increase even more late Sunday night into Monday as the cold front moves through. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be expect on Monday with this system. Could see a change to snow in the mountains as the precipitation is coming to an end late Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1150 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system Tuesday morning will give way to an approaching system. This system will affect the region for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models still vary considerably with the amount of cold air in place before the system. This leads to significant differences on where to place the rain/snow line. Most models provide some locations in the forecast area that will be predominately snow. Will have to keep a close eye on this system for possible winter weather headlines.

A moisture starved warm front will then move northward across the region for Thursday night. Much warmer weather can be expected for Friday into the weekend.

Models then show a strong cold front pushing across the area next weekend. Model timing varies significantly however, with frontal passage ranging from Saturday to Sunday night.

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