Bryce Resort / Basye

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Basye, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will remain in control through Friday. A cold front will cross the area Saturday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area during the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Skies remain mostly clear this evening with periods of fog forming along the Chesapeake Bay. Fog coverage is expected too increase overnight and into tomorrow morning. Dense fog is expected to affect most areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The main question is how late in the morning the fogs lingers over our region. More Dense Fog Advisories seem likely again tonight into tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The high pressure ridge will start breaking down Friday as a trough over the Great Lks passes to the north. Temperatures will cool off a bit more on Fri as heights fall and ridge axis gets displaced farther offshore. A weak cold front will cross the area Saturday afternoon bringing cooler temperatures and a risk of showers mainly to areas south of US-50. A rumble of thunder is also possible across central Virginia.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front will linger over the region Sunday which is likely to result in a mostly cloudy day with the risk of a few scattered showers as a weak shortwave traverses along the boundary. Temperatures will be much cooler than what we've experienced as of late with daytime highs in the mid 50s.

Relatively dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures are likely to continue on Monday under a quasi-zonal upper level flow. However with a surface trough nearby, would expect a decent amount of cloud cover with non-zero PoPs. As an H5 trough continues to deepen out over the western CONUS, ridging will once again re- develop by the middle of next week. However there is still some uncertainty in regards to a secondary frontal boundary that lingers over the Allegheny's. The strengthening of the aforementioned ridge should keep the front from shifting eastward. Given the spread amongst guidance however, cannot fully rule out the chance for scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for areas west of the Blue Ridge.

As we continue into the latter portion of next week, forecaster's confidence continues to decrease as guidance is decently split in regards to the potential cut off low over the southern Plains, which may impact the region late next week. However as the days continue, will likely gain consensus on model guidance trends.

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