Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure remains in place through Friday. Over the weekend, a cold front and its associated scattered showers will cross the region. Early next week, the upper ridge rebuilds over the southeast U.S. while yet another cold front stalls over the Great Plains and Great Lakes region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Thursday...

Just a scattered cu field out there this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 70s.

Again not much change in the pattern tonight, so expect easterly onshore flow to become trapped under the nocturnal inversion resulting in stratus and fog impacting mainly the piedmont, though the river valleys across the mountains are likely to see fog as well.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s.

Upper ridge shifts to the east as trough edges closer, but overall high pressure firmly in place, to allow for sunshine to be realized after fog/low clouds erode by mid-late morning.

Highs again in the 70s.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper ridge continues to slide eastward Friday night as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. Rainfall from the front doesn't start to enter the area until Saturday morning, lasting into Saturday evening. With the front moving through the area, there should be a pretty wide temperature spread for highs, upper 50s to near 80, Saturday from the western slopes to the eastern parts of the Piedmont we cover. Overall rainfall amounts look pretty sparse, with greatest amounts around a tenth to quarter of an inch from the southern Blue Ridge to Martinsville area, whilst everyone else will struggle for a tenth.

With this update, I've gone ahead and dropped temperatures more for Sunday with high pressure wedging into the area after the front. With isolated showers and drizzle possible with the wedge, slight chance pops have been left over a majority of the region for the day, with slightly greater pops along the southern Blue Ridge into the NC mountains were early fetch could help better drive rain along the southern edge of the edge boundary. Wedge conditions (cloudy, cool, and drizzle) last into Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure builds back in from the east as ridging takes over the region Monday, allowing for temperatures to gradually warm that afternoon, as well as Tuesday, with highs looking to reach back into the upper 70s by Tuesday afternoon.

Forecast confidence beyond Tuesday drops, as guidance remains divided on how an upper level trough and potential closed off low interact with the area: models are in agreement of a closed off low forming out of a high amplitude trough over the desert SW, being left behind by the northern stream and having to rely on the southern stream to push it east. The main difference in guidance is over how fast this low progresses eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. GFS is extremely fast with this, meaning rainfall could quickly return following a front that will move through the area Tuesday. ECMWF on the other hand is substantially slower, not bringing it here until late in work week. Before its arrival, we could see some drier weather following the front Tuesday. Because of these differences, forecast population was done with NBM, with minor tweaks.

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