Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

Hot Springs, VA

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

Currently

Temperature 43.29°F
Feels Like 34.63°F
Humidity 65%
Pressure 1014mb
Wind 20.71mph from the W
Overcast clouds 43°F Overcast clouds
Today Sunny
High: 55°F Low: 44°F
Saturday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 64°F Low: 52°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 66°F Low: 52°F
Monday Rain Showers Likely
High: 69°F Low: 55°F
Tuesday Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 68°F Low: 45°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure over the Gulf Coast states and low pressure over New England will provide windy weather today. A backdoor front edges south toward the area Easter Sunday, remaining in the area into midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1. Wind Advisory For The Alleghanys into the Roanoke/New River Valley and Blue Ridge

Numerical models favor a breezy/windy scenario today, though wind studies indicate that will be marginal unless we mix up to 750-700 mb. Indications show potential and winds this high will be in the 35-45 kt range. Will leave wind advisory in place where it is as good mixing will occur from 12z-23z today.

Shortwave moving across the Alleghanys this morning could bring a few showers rain/snow but nothing of consequence.

As low pressure moves further away the gradient relaxes tonight, with winds abating.

Highs today will be seasonal with upper 50s to around 60 west to mid to upper 60s east.

Clear skies tonight but enough wind and some warm advection for lows to be in the 40s.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures/sky cover/pops, but moderate on winds.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). Period of Unsettled Weather Conditions Begins to Evolve Saturday.

2). Above Normal Temperatures Expected Through the Period.

The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through the period with broad upper ridging across the southeastern U.S. resulting in rising heights and temperatures aloft as well. The models have been very consistent in depicting a mid-level disturbance which tracks from west to east across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, along which a frontal boundary/baroclinic zone develops. A cluster of convection is slated to develop in association with this fast moving disturbance and track across northern WV/MD/PA Saturday. Model confidence in this pattern developing is high given the considerable consistency from run- to-run. In so doing, it will help to push the baroclinic zone further south going into Sunday, eventually reaching the I-64 corridor. Additional rounds of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop Sunday in the vicinity of this baroclinic zone, although at this point the atmosphere only weakly supports thunder, mainly from a thermodynamic standpoint, not dynamics.

Moving into Monday, the baroclinic zone/frontal boundary will begin to push back to the north as the upper ridge amplifies further across the eastern U.S. in response to a stronger weather system tracking northeastward from the Southern Plains and into the Midwest. Thus, the chance for precipitation will begin to focus further north, mainly north of I-64 once again.

Any precipitation through the time frame of this forecast period will be light with relatively limited moisture, westerly flow, and highly kinematic disturbances embedded within the westerly flow aloft. In addition, the main dynamics will remain north/west of the area through the period.

Temperatures will trend warmer through the time frame of this forecast period as 500mb heights close in on 580dm and 850mb temperatures sore to near +15C. This will result in well above normal maximum and minimum temperatures in the 40s/50s to the 70s, respectively, which are on average 10-15 degrees above normal.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Stronger Weather System Brings Showers/Thunderstorms to the Region Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Much Cooler Temperatures Return for Late Week

The synoptic pattern will become increasing progressive during the extended period as an upper trough shifts eastward from the Midwest. The trough will encounter the upper ridge across the southeastern U.S. and be shunted more into the Ohio Valley and Northeastern U.S. with time, but will still be strong enough to push a stronger cold front through the forecast area by Wednesday. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this system. Brooks-Craven values reach values as high as 25000, indicating good potential for at least thunder with this activity. MAV MOS thunderstorm pops are the highest I have seen so far this year, reaching values as high as 44% Tue-Wed. However, there are indications that the forecast area may be split between stronger convection to our northwest with the main upper dynamics and redevelopment of low pressure along the southeast coast in association with a southern stream short wave, leaving the RNK CWA in a weaker forcing area and thus less precipitation and less potential for thunder.

At any rate, in the wake of this intensifying low pressure area to our north, look for gusty winds and much cooler temperatures by Thursday as 850mb temperatures plummet from the warm +12C or better readings early in the week to perhaps as cold as -8C by the end of the week. Surface temperatures will respond and fall back to normal or even a bit below normal levels by the end of the week with freezing temperatures possible in the colder valleys west of the Blue Ridge and in the mountains of the west by Friday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

Homestead Resort