Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will provide dry conditions today. A warm front will approach from the west by Sunday to bring increasing chances of rain into early next week, followed by warmer, summer like weather for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 935 AM EDT Saturday...

...Status quo forecast for this afternoon...

No major changes are expected for the forecast heading into the early afternoon. Cumulus cloud cover will be on the increase across first the ridge tops, and then we can expect a slow drift southeast. Temperatures currently a mix of the 50s across the mountains and 60s across the Piedmont. Forecast highs are still on track to the mid 60s to near 70 across the mountains and low to mid 70s across the Piedmont. Winds will continue to be light and variable or light from the northwest.

As of 246 AM EDT Saturday...

Warmer and dry today but shower chances Sunday...

Will be under high pressure today providing more sunshine with some increase in high based cumulus and altocumulus this afternoon. As the high moves offshore tonight and Sunday flow turns to the south in the low levels advecting more moisture in. A warm frontal boundary stretched across the southern Plains into the TN Valley will lift north toward the southern Ohio Valley by late Sunday.

Models showing several embedded upper vorts moving across late tonight and Sunday but are different in terms of threat of rainfall. The higher resolution models are somewhat more aggressive late tonight in showing higher pops into the mountains, compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Will lean toward lower chance as airmass still will be just moistening up.

Sunday, the best upper forcing appears to move from Ohio into northern VA. Not overly impressed with the chances of precip Sunday as thinking most of the lift will be west of the mountains along the warm front. Just enough flow aloft to possibly bring a 40 pop to the mountains with less east of the Blue Ridge. Airmass is marginally unstable so put in token isolated thunderstorms.

Highs today will range from the mid 70s east to mid to upper 60s west.

Increasing clouds tonight will keep low temps milder and close to normal with mid to upper 40s most areas.

Sunday with more clouds than sunshine, held temps down with lower 60s over the mountains of far SW VA into NC with better chance of showers may be, to mid 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.

Forecast confidence is high today-this evening for all parameters, but lower Sunday for rain chances and temps.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

More Organized Showers and Storms Expected For Monday Followed Up By Diurnal Summertime Like Pattern...

Sunday night into Monday sees upper level flow remaining out of the NW whilst surface high pressure to the south places the Mid-Atlantic region in the ring of fire to help with development of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon when taking in the aid of diurnal heating.

After Monday, high pressure starts to dominate the region and a more summertime like pattern starts to take hold with weak mid level waves to help drive diurnally based convection. In fact, Tuesday and onward, models are in good agreement in a deepening trough for central western United States, driving a strong ridge and subsequent high to develop in the southeastern U.S. This high will help block most larger scale disturbances and keep the area fairly dry besides the continued diurnal convection whilst the Arklatex over to Mississippi valley get pummeled by precipitation with persistent, strong southerly flow off the Gulf.

Temperatures through the period gradually start to moderate, eventually reaching near normal for this time of year Tuesday in the 70s.

Forecast confidence is high.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

High Pressure Dominates Allowing Only Diurnally Driven Convection into Next Weekend...

A developing ridge with subsequent high pressure over the southern states/southern Mid Atlantic will dominate the long term part of the forecast whilst a strong trough resides over the central U.S. This will set up strong on shore flow and bring numerous showers and storms the the southern U.S., but leave us blocked from any major disturbances. For now, precipitation chances will remain diurnally driven as PWATs remain below an inch. Temperatures through the period will continue to warm with many projected to warm into the 80s by next weekend.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

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