Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move away from the area tonight. A ridge of high pressure will become nearly stationary from the Gulf of Mexico, north to the Great Lakes region by Thursday and remain that way through at least the start of the weekend. This will promote a drying trend associated with moderating temperatures for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 716 PM EDT Wednesday...

Expect a decrease in clouds and showers east of the mountains this evening, with a gradual decrease as well in terms of rain/snow showers in the mountains. Could see a half inch of snow in the Greenbrier County mountains of WV.

Previous discussion from mid afternoon Wednesday...

Low pressure of the North Carolina coast will lift slowly north tonight into Thursday. This system will strengthen and meander off the East Coast for the next few days. Partial clearing is expected in the wake of the storm system, with lingering clouds across the mountains in additions to scattered showers. Forecast soundings still suggests shower depth will reach above the freezing level, thus can't rule out mix of rain/snow or rain/graupel/soft hail as a result of the convective nature of the showers. Latest radar images showed scattered showers developing this afternoon from around HSP to DAN as highlighted by the Hiresw-ARW-EAST, NAMnest HRRR, GFS and RAP. Most of the instability showers will diminish with the loss of solar heat this evening. Generally taper back precipitation tonight, holding the longest in the northwest. It will be cool overnight with readings generally in the 30s. Not out of the question to see some patchy frost if skies completely clear and the winds decouple. Attm think this threat appears low and limited in coverage. Proximity of the Coastal Low pressure center should keep winds elevated just enough to maintain mixing east of the mountains in spite of any clearing. Lingering clouds over the mountains, in addition to the wind, may keep temperatures in check. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will build southeast into our region Thursday. The upper ridge will build east into Thursday night. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid 40s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont.

Medium to good confidence in the Near Term Forecast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 206 PM EDT Wednesday...

A dome of high pressure will control our weather through the short term period. Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday will be dry, giving us a reprieve from the frequent rain of late. Skies will be mostly clear to after drier air breaks up clouds over the mountains on Thursday night. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s during the nights, but will warm up into the low 60s west of the Blue Ridge, almost 70 to the east. The arrival of moisture on Saturday into Saturday night look slower.

High confidence in the Short Term forecast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Cold front moves across Sunday-Sunday evening allowing for a few showers in the mountains, but upper flow is zonal to keep moisture transport/availability limited. This front stalls across the southeast/Gulf Coast Sunday night into Monday, the heads north into Tuesday. Expect a chance of rain Monday into Monday night.

Several upper impulses, along with low level moisture increasing along/south of the warm front keeps a threat of showers around Tuesday into Wednesday although appears better chances will be over the mountains.

Temperatures continue to stay above normal through the period.

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