Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

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Hot Springs, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Dry high pressure will remain anchored along the U.S. east coast through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night. There will not be a lot of moisture associated with the front. Showers are possible in the mountains, with upwards of a tenth of an inch of wetting, but little or nothing is expected east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will build back across the area for the weekend promoting dry weather through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1020 PM EDT Wednesday...

Updated overnight lows based on current observations.

Adjusted temperatures in a few areas which have already cooled quite a bit tonight in the 0.36" PWAT air mass, according to tonight's sounding. Otherwise forecast is on track.

As of 705 PM EDT Wednesday...

Tranquil weather tonight and Thursday. Showers arrive Thursday evening.

Forecast remains dry with no rain expected tonight and little or no rain threat Thursday. Current environment supports little or no cloud cover with PWAT below half of an inch across the area. Forecast focus near term is the subsidence from high pressure which cover much of the eastern CONUS.

After tonight, a cold front will approach the forecast area from the west as low pressure moves northeast into the Great Lakes. Most of the moisture with this feature is forecast to remain with the Low, with skinny ribbon of moisture along the leading edge of the front. Clouds are expected to move into the area during the afternoon Thursday, but think any precip will hold off until late in the day and confined to mainly the mountains.

Temperatures tonight will cool quickly per clear sky and light winds. Dewpoints in the 40s suggest, the low temperature will also be in the 40s. For Thursday, expect another warm day with highs in the 70s prefrontal southwesterly winds kicking up during the afternoon...speeds 5 to 15 mph.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Cold front passes through the region on Friday bringing cooler temperatures and breezy conditions...

Cold approaches the western areas late Thursday night with showers increasing overnight. Expect much of the rain associated with this front to fizzle out as it pushes east through the day on Friday. A tenth to perhaps two tenths of an inch of rainfall for southeast West Virginia and far southwest Virginia, with only very limited amounts east of the Blue Ridge. Some locations in the Piedmont may not see any rainfall with the passage of this front.

Temperatures for Friday and Saturday to remain in the 50s for the higher elevations. 60s and lower 70s for locations east of the Blue Ridge. Widespread 40s and upper 30s for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A return to unsettled weather for much of next week...

Moving into next week, models begin advertising a chaotic and uncertain weather pattern. Several rounds of upper-level waves will trek through the CONUS, likely to bring some rainfall throughout the week. This first system approaches the area late Monday and into Tuesday and rain chances increase. With such large timing differences, did not want to completely remove any chance of rain or have high chance for a particular day, so just kept chances on the lower side throughout the period. Will likely increase these with time as confidence grows.

Beyond mid-week, models continue to show a potent system in the central Plains on Wednesday and continues to push it eastward through the end of next week. Too far out to give much more detail, but this system could provide us with another shot of widespread rainfall moving into Halloween weekend.

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