Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

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Harrisonburg, VA

Massanutten Base Cam
Massanutten Tubing Cam

Forecast Discussion



... Strong Canadian high pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly migrate over the region through the weekend before becoming more concentrated over the Mid Atlantic by early next week. Dry and near seasonable temperatures are expected through the weekend before a warming trend ensues by the middle of next week as the high shifts offshore.


The gusty northwesterly winds have tapered off this evening with a steady 7 to 10 knot wind out of the northwest expected to continue through the overnight periods.

.Previous Discussion.

Mostly clear skies and gusty northwest winds persist this afternoon with wind gusts ranging between 20 to 30 mph across the region. Albeit dry, cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday with highs in the low 40s across the metros, upper 30s over northern MD/ central VA, and upper 20s across the higher terrain. Winds will diminish some early this evening into the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A large upper level low continues to retrograde over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday which will keep the surface high over the Great Lakes in place throughout most of the weekend. A cold and gusty NW flow continues through Saturday as a result of the tight gradient. The low will slowly begin to exit off into the North Atlantic Sunday which will allow the high to begin migrating southward over the CWA through early next week. Temperatures will remain just below normal for this time of year through the weekend with cold overnight lows in the 20s and daytime highs in the 40s for most with low 30s across the mountains. A warming trend is expected as we head into the middle of next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The broad trough will move offshore Monday afternoon as a region of surface high pressure builds behind the trough. Staying dry Tuesday into Wednesday as upper-level quasi-zonal flow becomes more southwesterly and the surface high pressure moves off the coast of the Carolina's. High temperatures climb into the low 60s Tuesday and mid-upper 60s Wednesday. By Thursday, H5 heights could approach 575 dm and 850 temps close to 10 C. At the surface, this translates to high temperatures near 70 degrees on Thursday.

Embedded disturbances in the upper-level flow likely stay north of the FA through Wednesday. The opportunity for rain showers returns Wednesday night into Thursday, though some guidance keeps us dry into Thursday night.