Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

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Harrisonburg, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary near the Virginia and North Carolina border and bring unsettled weather to the region through midweek. The front will return northward as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday. An occluded system will affect our region Friday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A northeast to easterly flow will remain in place through the next couple days with high pressure to the northeast and low pressure and front to the south. Drizzle has dissipated across most of the region through the evening outside the higher terrain where webcams indicate the higher elevations are in the stratus deck with intermittent drizzle. These locations will likely remain in the cloud deck through the overnight hours with drizzle ending overnight. The 00Z RAOB from IAd shows saturated low levels with a dry layer from 850-700 mb. This dry layer is forecast to deepen overnight supporting the risk for drizzle diminishing in areas it has not yet ceased. Cannot rule out some patchy fog in the Shenandoah Valley overnight, though coverage is expected to remain rather intermittent. Lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will stall off of the North Carolina Coast with a wedge of high pressure across the Delmarva extending southwestward into the Shenandoah Valley through the day on Wednesday. A weak shortwave trough passing overhead Wednesday will combine with moisture advection to bring a slight chance for rain, with any precipitation that occurs favoring more drizzle. An onshore flow will lead to continued overcast skies and daytime temperatures on the cooler side in the 60s.

The front to the south will return north late Wednesday into Thursday. Continued overcast skies and an easterly flow will lead to mild overnight temps in the 50s.

The warm front will continue northward on Thursday. As the front moves northward, a southerly, warm air advecting flow is expected to form. An occluded system is forecast to approach our region from the west late Thursday. Models remain slow in advancement of this system. Ahead of this system, a weak onshore flow will combine with lift from a weak shortwave to produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon / evening. The main occluded system will start impacting our region late Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms may move into areas along the Allegheny Front late Thursday evening. Based on model soundings, any thunderstorms will likely fail to become strong to severe due to a lack of CAPE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Trough of low pressure and upper level energy will approach the Mid Atlantic Region from the Ohio Valley on Friday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with the heaviest precipitation likely Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.

Upper level energy may get held back during Saturday which may lead to a few additional showers/thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure will build back over the region later Sunday into Monday with mild temperatures in the 80s expected.

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