Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

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Harrisonburg, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

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High pressure will gradually build in from the west through the middle of the week. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. A low pressure system will pass near the area late Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Scattered rain showers have ended and have been replaced by some low stratus clouds across the region early this morning. In some parts of the central Shenandoah Valley, dense fog has set into the region. This fog has reduced visibility to around one- quarter mile. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued until 9 am this morning. Both temperatures and dewpoint temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Winds are calm or light and variable.

Any stratus clouds and fog should mix out by mid morning. With residual moisture and an upper trough overhead, skies will remain mostly cloudy the remainder of the day. There could even be sprinkles, flurries or a brief shower over the mountains due to upslope. Light upslope precipitation could carry over into the overnight into early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Upper trough finally pushes to the east Wednesday with ridging at the surface and aloft building in from the west. There may be enough moisture in the northwest flow to keep some clouds around, but should be more sunshine overall. Temperatures will be fairly seasonal with a more Pacific airmass, though radiational cooling could allow some below freezing temperatures Wednesday night.

High pressure and ridging aloft will reside over the Eastern Seaboard Thursday before shifting off the coast Thursday night. At the same time, low pressure will track northeastward from the Central U.S. into the Great Lakes, lifting a warm front through the Mid Atlantic Region. A few showers will be possible Thursday night as a result, with temperatures running on the mild side for this time of year.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

An upper level trough will swing through southern Quebec and the Northeast Fri pushing a cdfnt through the local area Fri afternoon. Anticipate likely showers over the Appalachians and chance of showers elsewhere. There will likely be a lull in precip Fri night as cdfnt pushes south and enough dry air makes into the area, but a second upper level trough over the mid- section of the country will start ejecting ewd on Sat inducing sfc cyclogenesis over the TN valley which will spread rain back into the area Sat. Precip may end as a brief period of snow showers over the Appalachians before everything exits the region late Sat night. High pressure builds back over the region for early next week.

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