Canaan Valley Resort

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Davis, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Expect dry weather and seasonable temperatures until low pressure approaches late Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... High pressure in place will make for clear skies to continue through the overnight. Dry air in place and decoupling winds with the lack of insulation will allow temperatures to plummet overnight. Current observations tell the story with some 30 degree dew point depressions in some locations as current dew points are still in the teens. With confirmation of the MOS data, lowered temps and dew points some during the overnight. Its likely the WAA and moisture influx ahead of the next system will not engage until later in the day Sunday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The sfc high will shift east while flow aloft becomes more southwesterly Sunday in response to a deepening trough/sfc low system over the northern Great Plains. Conditions should remain dry for much of the day as model trends delay the northern progression of the associated warm front while jet ascent remains well west. Above seasonal averages are expected for most locations by the afternoon.

The warm front should now lift through the region Sunday night into early Monday morning as warm, moist advection in SW flow increases. This will largely negate cooling (and potentially cause a few locations to see temperature rises) while potentially promoting increased shower chances in conjunction with strengthening jet ascent.

The bulk of the rain chances are pegged for Monday morning through the early afternoon period, coincident with the approach/passage of the sfc cold front and peak upper support. Rapid intrusion of drier air and subsidence should quickly taper off rain after FROPA, though strong CAA could create a brief mix/change over to snow for the I-80 corridor and high elevations. In general, temperature will peak ahead of the front and drop after FROPA and result in most locations experiencing the high during the morning.

Clearing skies and strong CAA as high pressure builds Monday night will result in the coldest temperature of the week, with lows in the teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will park over the region Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds aloft, leading to dry weather. Remnant CAA in the wake of the exiting trough plus moist advection ahead of the next system introducing greater cloud coverage will result in well below average temperature.

The next in a series of troughs appears set to track across the region Wednesday into early Thursday morning, and will bear monitoring as some ensemble model members suggest a potential quick- hitting winter event for the forecast area with a more northern sfc low track. High uncertainty exists for this, though, as there remains notable model variance in the system structure/pattern.

The fairly progressive pattern will continue thereafter with periodic troughs originating out of the Rockies and TN/MS river valleys providing precipitation chances and varying temperature swings into next weekend.

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