... Dry and warm weather will prevail through Thursday, when rain will move in and much cooler weather will follow.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No changes are required for the evening update.
Previous discussion... Warm advection overnight will keep temperature in the 40s despite a mostly clear sky.
Dry weather is expected through Wednesday as high pressure throughout the column moves east across the Ohio Valley region. Warm temperature will continue.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure undergoing cyclolysis will propagate eastward from the southern Midwest, in tandem with a cold front lent by low pressure near Hudson Bay. Jet support coincident with frontogenesis will allow for precipitation to begin early Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long range model ensembles indicate vorticity advection may result in shortwave support for showers to continue on/off through the weekend. With cold northwest flow, upslope and lake enhancement could combine to lend additional forcing and moisture, respectively.