Canaan Valley Resort

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Davis, WV

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Canaan Valley Resort
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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Relatively mild conditions can be expected, but high pressure will give way to an extended period of unsettled weather beginning on Tuesday. Periodic chances of light rain and drizzle are expected through the weekend, although significant rainfall is not expected through the period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No changes to previous forecast. After a chilly start down in the upper teens to mid 20s (down to 2F at the notorious Canaan Valley sensor!), a rapid warm-up is underway as exiting cirrus canopy gives way to increasing sunshine. Increasing warm advection aloft, and southerly flow through a very dry boundary layer should mix down temperatures some 10-15F warmer than yesterday. Mid afternoon highs should reach the mid 40s along the I-80 corridor, increasing to the south with at least lower 50s along and south of I-70.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Increased low level cloud coverage and intermittent light rain or drizzle is forecast through the period as a diffuse baroclinic zone sets up over the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. There are no apparent large scale forcing mechanisms, however, models have been consistent in showing saturated low levels up though 700mb and a quick glance at 280K-300K isentropic plots show a general upglide with condensation pressure deficits near zero. With that, total QPF output should be around a tenth of an inch or less. Highest totals could be along I-70 where surface low level convergence is maximized.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Light rain / drizzle will continue Wednesday followed by a short window of dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday. The next frontal system will begin to impact the region later on Thursday, bringing the best chance for wetting rain through Friday. High pressure then moves back in this weekend.

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