Canaan Valley Resort

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Davis, WV

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Canaan Valley Resort
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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Rain and snow showers are expected through the weekend. Higher elevations can expect windy conditions this afternoon/evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Recent AMDAR soundings out of KPIT suggest a saturated boundary layer with a weakening inversion still evident just above 3kft. Near the inversion, strong southeasterly wind around 50kts was observed. While the inversion should continue to prohibit the mixing down of strong wind to the region's lowlands, this does supports the potential for damaging downslope wind west of the Allegheny Front. Recent surface observations in the higher terrain supports this, specifically near Seven Springs, with wind gusts in the low 30s kts observed.

The wind threat will be confined only for the next couple of hours as rain continues to cool the boundary layer through wet bulbing and effectively erodes the inversion ahead of advancing low pressure.

As for precipitation type, persistent warm advection and overall surface temperature above freezing will support widespread rain through the remainder of the period.

Widespread areal flooding does not look to be an issue given forecasts of progressive convergence/frontogenesis areas in conjunction with precipitable water on the order of 3/4 inch; however, with an area-wide one-inch rainfall as progged through tonight, expect healthy rises on area rivers given the time of year.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cooler, drier air will filter in behind the frontal boundary Saturday morning. The temperature will remain steady (upper 30s) for much of the day with a few light showers possible.

Another shortwave axis rotating around the vertically-stacked low pressure system will cross the region Saturday evening. This appears to be the best period for snow efficiency given steep low-level lapse rates and a decent moisture profile through the dendritic growth zone. However, warm surface temperature should hamper ground accumulation to less than an inch in most locations.

Sunday will be quite similar to Saturday w/ temps steady in the 30s. A few snow/rain showers will be possible through the day. Analysis of forecast soundings suggests that moisture in the snow-growth zone will be quite limited on Sunday. It's possible seeder-feeder mechanism may alleviate this such that light snow falls rather than freezing drizzle. In any case, QPF looks minimal and any accumulation should be non-significant.

Yet another shortwave axis will cross over the region Sunday night, resulting in more light snow showers. Little to no accumulation anticipated.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Each day next week will be remarkably similar to one another. A nearly continuous overcast sky will keep the diurnal range to a minimum. Highs will generally be in the upper 30s, lows 25-30, and no significant precipitation.

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