... Dry weather and sub-average is expected through early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... No changes were needed for the eve update as variable mid, and upr clouds continue to stream over the region. Those are expected to be alleviate with passage of the supporting shortwave, but more cloud cover is expected across northern zones by morning as moisture associated with the pre-frontal trough becomes trapped under a strong inversion. Expect lows with this scenario about 10 degrees under the averages.
Dry weather continues on Friday under sfc high pressure. Temperatures will run a couple degrees warmer than today, but we remain around 10 degrees below the calculate normals.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will sag southwards across the area Friday evening/overnight, though the lack of sufficient moisture and upper support will preclude precipitation chances for the area. However, as winds shift to the NW behind the front, additional moisture off the lake may bring minimal chances for light showers across the far northern edge of the forecast area. Lack of instability and shallow moisture should limit any showers that do form to mostly flurries or drizzle. For this reason, have brushed in minimal slight chance PoPs into Friday night.
High pressure building to our north across Ontario/Quebec should maintain the dry weather through Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees below average. Saturday/Saturday night will be the coolest of the period before a gradual warming trend begins on Sunday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging ahead of an approaching Central CONUS trough should maintain dry weather through early next week. The trough will dig over the Eastern CONUS and become negatively tilted by mid-week, spawning a deep low over the Southeast that will track up the East Coast. There remains model uncertainty as to the east/west placement of the low, with models generally trending westward. Precip chances Tues and Weds will be dependent on the track of this feature. With current uncertainty, have maintained chance/slight chance PoPs.
A gradual warming trend is expected through the period, with temperatures returning to near average levels by mid week.