... Crossing upper level waves may spark a shower or storm across mainly northern areas late today and overnight. A Thursday cold front will bring a better chance for widespread showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Little change was needed at 7:25 AM, as the forecast remains on track overall.
Northwest flow aloft will keep its hold on the area today. A much drier airmass has settled in over the region and will stay in place today. A weak, moisture starved, shortwave trough will cross the area this afternoon. With the lack of deep moisture, this wave will do little except perhaps bring an increase in cu to the north.
With plenty of sunshine today, and surface dewpoints remaining more tolerable, temperatures will push well into the 80s with urban locales approaching 90 degrees.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A more extensive trough will quickly cross the area this evening. Seeing some difference with the model solutions on how they handle the impacts from this wave. The differences come in the strength of the wave and how far south the deeper moisture intrudes. Most of the data is pointing to a drier forecast with the deepest moisture remaining north of the region. Any activity tonight looks to be isolated and mainly over the I-80 corridor.
The trough will pull a weak surface boundary southward late tonight which will slowly cross the region on Wednesday. With a lack of upper level support and moisture, it appears any activity Wednesday would again be isolated and centered along the crossing front.
Best support for precipitation will come Thursday as the nose of an upper level jet and mid-level shortwave advance ahead of the cold front. However, at this time, there is low confidence in the Thursday forecast due to pretty substantial timing and support differences in the model data.
Temperatures will remain above average through the period.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... West-Central CONUS ridge will remain in place through the weekend as several shortwaves dig the trough in the east. Focus for precipitation will generally remain north of the Ohio valley with shortwave ridging keeping conditions dry and seasonably cool for much of the weekend.