... Cool high pressure dominates today and Monday. Warming trend with disturbances middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1010 AM Sunday...
Will increase cloud cover a bit this morning in the mountains where clouds are already forming.
As of 630 AM Sunday...
Forecast on track this cool and quiet Sunday morning.
As of 215 AM Sunday...
Significant wx nil today and tonight, with the exception of some cold overnight lows possible in the mountains. Cool Canadian high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley with temperature readings slightly below normal today, and more below normal tonight. Expecting light northerly wind and dewpoints that will fall through the day, aided by the mixing down of very dry air from the top of the boundary layer. Tonight, with the dry air in place and clear, calm conditions otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40s for the lowlands/southern and central mountains and the 30s in the highest elevations. Keeping all locations above freezing, but may need to be concerned about patchy frost, mainly in the highest elevations. As of this forecast, the mountain valleys look ok in terms of frost potential as the surface high settles over the CWA tonight.
SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Sunday...
One more cooler and dry day is expected Monday before surface high pressure begins exiting to the east as upper level ridging over the central of the country gradually shifts east, turning low level flow more southwesterly and beginning to advect warm and humid air back into the region. Models in reasonable in agreement in some manner of ridge riding convective complex dropping southeast along the lee side of the ridge late Monday night. Remnants from this feature glance our northeastern WV counties early Tuesday morning, although this should be moving into a much less favorable convective environment by the time it arrives yielding just some rain showers.
Despite sitting in a mainly open warm sector with hot and humid conditions Tuesday afternoon, rather poor lapse rates likely stifle significant afternoon convection, except perhaps across our northern couple tiers of counties where a plume of steeper rates sourced from the Desert Southwest begins to work into the region as it rides around the deamplifying ridge across the center of the country.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday...
Generally weaker mid-level flow is expected through the remainder of the week as the upper ridge deamplifies. Operational GFS/EC continue to bring a W-E oriented plume of 1.5 to 2 inch precipitable water values pooling ahead of a slow moving cold frontal boundary late Wednesday into Thursday with at least some heavier rain potential with slow moving rain showers across the area. Ensemble means generally suggest 1 to perhaps 2 inches of rainfall with the highest amounts across our northern zones Thursday and central zones Thursday night into Friday morning as the front slowly sags south. Will likely see diurnally enhanced convection in the main line along the slow moving front Thursday afternoon, with perhaps some more pulse type activity north of the main band with better insolation. Despite rather weak flow with deep layer shear at or below 30KTs at least some hail along with some locally heavy downpours would be possible if this pulse type activity does develop.
Given recent drier conditions and slower nature of the fall of precipitation, think high water concerns will mainly be confined to typical trouble spots. This will be something to keep an eye on though, especially if it looks like the front is more likely to stall over any particular spot or slow moving pulse type convection sits over an area that received previous significant rain.
Organized precipitation chances fade for the weekend as the front exits south, but hot and humid conditions remain with diurnal showers/thunderstorms likely remaining on the menu.