... Hot, but low end POPs return. Humidity returns for the remainder of the week with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Monday...
Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this time.
As of 630 AM Monday...
Valley fog prevalent again this morning across the region. Slowed the POPs over the southern zones a few hours. Minor edits in the mountain high temps today.
As of 235 AM Monday...
Overall, seeing a closing of the gap in the forecast soundings in terms of the Td and T curves, especially over the tri state area, Tug Fork valley, and into the southern mountains. Given the messiness of the 500mb mass fields and at the surface in terms of features that can produce modest lift, the need to introduce POPs back into the forecast exists. The instability remains modest, and the convection will probably be a little higher based as the low level inversion that has existed over the past couple of days needs to erode. It should do so with a little bit of time into this afternoon, at which time, the bases may come down. In the end, the chances and coverage will be on the lower side.
Dewpoints will also be back up towards mid summer mode into the upper 60s across the western zones. 850mb temperatures come up slightly, and will translate this to the surface into yet a hotter day, probably the highest temps for the 7 day forecast. As we continue to dry out, the temperatures become easier to raise in the forecast highs in these scenarios.
Further to the northwest, another MCS may push southeastward from the western Great Lakes region this evening into tonight, but right now, the steering flow should keep it west of our CWA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM Monday...
During the short term period, the pattern will be active with a couple of shortwaves moving through the area and a front approaching from the northwest. This front is expected to stall out over the area by Thursday.
Moisture will increase during the period and dewpoints will likely hover in the 70s each day. Scattered showers and storms are mainly expected to develop each afternoon and evening as instability peaks with daytime heating. Higher vorticity values are forecast along the front indicating some stronger storms could develop in this area. Heavy rainfall could also accompany these storms as precipitable water values are in the 1.5-2" range.
Temperatures will be above normal through the short term period. In the lowlands high temperatures should reach 90s each day with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Mountain highs will range from 70s to 80s with lows in the 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Sunday...
At the beginning of the long term period, the aforementioned front remains stalled overhead; however, a trough moving in from the west should help dislodge the front over the weekend. Generally southerly flow will continue to bring moisture into the area with daily shower and thunderstorms chances persisting into the weekend. Up to 2" PWATs are forecast throughout the period making heavy rainfall a possibility with any convection that develops.
Temperatures continue to be above normal though they may cool a few degrees over the weekend.