... Below average temperatures expected and periods of rain through the first half of the weekend with a pair of cold fronts. A southern stream system Sunday brings warmer and wetter weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 829 PM Thursday...
Have slowed arrival of precip tonight by several hours, based upon latest near-term guidance and synoptic/mesoanalysis. Also increased mid to late afternoon post-FROPA wind speeds for Friday by about a category. Finally, adjusted inherited cloud cover quite a bit for this evening (reduced cloud cover for the eastern half of the CWA and increased coverage across the west) to reflect latest observations and trends.
As of 120 PM Thursday...
Upper level cloudiness associated with a departing H250 jet streak will allow clouds to briefly thin out this afternoon through earlier evening. Additional clouds and light rain arrive during the overnight ahead of a cold front with a bulk of any steadier rain exiting east by late morning Friday with a total of between a tenth and a third of inch of accumulation expected.
During the day Friday the region will be sandwiched between the departing cold front to the east and another cold front to the west. With adequately moist low level and cool temperatures aloft coupled with early May Sun angles, should be able to realize at least some conditional instability release yielding some showers and possibly a few rumbles out of some low-topped thunderstorms in the afternoon. With limited instability and shear not expecting any severe weather, but may see some graupel out of any more intense precipitation cores.
The aforementioned second cold front begins to nose into our SE OH counties by Friday evening bringing another round of showers and perhaps initially, a few rumbles of thunder.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 445 PM Thursday...
UPDATED SUNDAY'S FORECAST...
Have made some substantial changes to Sunday's forecast. Guidance has trended towards lifting a warm front north across the CWA Sunday morning, with the front stalling near the RLX/PBZ CWA boundary. With most guidance suites in agreement with this scenario, this would allow much of Sunday to be rather dry across the southern and eastern half of the CWA (but still wet for the north and west). Thus, I have increased southerly wind speeds for Sunday and have lowered POPs dramatically for much of the area. Also increased highs for areas prog to be in the warm sector.
As of 230 PM Thursday...
Temperatures will succumb to the secondary cold front mentioned in the near term period, imposing sub-freezing temperatures across elevations above 3500ft. With this in mind, I've elected to issue a Freeze Watch for Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties for Friday night in coordination with surrounding forecast offices.
Rain and light mountain snow showers will taper down Saturday morning as moisture pushes off to the east. Transient high pressure will allow for a brief dry spell on Saturday before giving way to a soggy Mother's Day as low pressure noses into the Ohio Valley. Unsettled weather will then continue into the start of the new work week.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday...
Rain will slowly taper down from west to east on Monday once a cold front swings through and subsidence fills in from behind amid expansive high pressure. The frontal boundary will be nearing the eastern seaboard by Tuesday morning, mitigating any lingering showers. Therefore, opted to stray a bit from central guidance for Tuesday's forecast as it advertised slight chance POPs loitering along the higher terrain.
While high pressure will be in play to our north, the progressive pattern continues as a southern stream system invades the forecast area sometime around midweek. This will prompt another round of showers for the conclusion of the period.
Temperatures will remain below their climatological norm for this time of year throughout the week.