... Weak system brings periods of rain tonight. Stronger system Wednesday into Wednesday night bring additional chances of rain, snow, and gusty winds.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday...
Surface low will track along the OH River from near the Bootheel of MO this evening to southeast OH tomorrow afternoon, generally along the developing warm frontal boundary.
After the initial WAA showers move through this evening, the primary focus for widespread rains will be along and north of the warm front as isentropic lift increases. It is here where the highest QPF is forecast with amounts .50 to .75 inches across southeast OH and portions of the northern WV lowlands. This should be manageable with a very low probability of flooding.
The warm front will be slow to lift north tomorrow with low clouds and light rain/drizzle persisting across portions of southeast OH and northern WV. Further south in the warm sector, some breaks in the clouds may be realized which would allow temperatures to climb well into the 60s.I can't completely rule out some afternoon showers in the warm sector, but these would be isolated at best.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Monday...
Overall little change in the thinking of the short term forecast period. Brief lull in bulk of precipitation still expected to continue Tuesday night, along with mild overnight temperatures, as southwesterly flow takes hold as an upper low/trough deepens across the central U.S. This feature, and surface low will move east through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, sweeping a cold front through the area, with rain changing over to snow area wide by Wednesday evening/night, along with much colder conditions and gusty winds on strong caa. Overall, still only expecting light accumulations at best mainly across the higher terrain. Thursday will gradually dry out, although it will be a blustery day, as the low pulls off to the north and east, and lingers across the northeast into the extended period.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday...
Cooler, and unsettled weather to start the long term period with upper low continuing to rotate across the northeast, and associated disturbances moving through the area, providing chances for rain and snow showers, particularly across the higher terrain. Models fairly consistent with one of these features affecting the CWA in the Friday night through Saturday time frame. Gradual warming and drying trend possible at the end of the week.