Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front pushes through today with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Slightly cooler weekend ahead.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1024 AM Thursday...

Made some slight adjustments to sky cover to better represent current satellite imagery. A few scattered showers and storms are approaching the southeast Ohio counties and will continue to move into the area heading into the afternoon.

As of 732 AM Thursday...

Lowered temperatures over the next few hours for a few places based on current observations as a few locations such as Elkins are trending a bit colder this morning. Otherwise, current forecast remains on track.

As of 125 AM Thursday...

An upper level trough and an associated cold front will push through the area today and this evening. Most of the energy from the upper level low will pass north of the region, but the cold front is pretty vigorous and will provide decent low level lift. CAPES are not overly impressive this afternoon and evening with generally 500 to 1000 values. However, DCAPE values are in the 500 to 1000 range as well. With some dry air in the mid levels combined with a low level jet, can't rule out some damaging winds with stronger thunderstorms.

The front will push east of the area tonight. Cold air advection behind the front should create a stratus deck that will push into the area.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Thursday...

After a mainly dry morning, precipitation chances return to the area during the day Friday and continue into Saturday morning as several shortwaves move through an upper level trough, and a front approaches from the northwest. The upper trough lifts northeast during the day Saturday, and surface high pressure slides in from the south. This should allow for drier weather as the day progresses. A warm front and approaching low pressure system will then bring more rain chances for Sunday.

Below normal temperatures are expected on Friday (following Thursday's cold front), with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 in the lowlands and mid 40s to upper 50s in the mountains. Daytime temperatures rise by a few degrees for Saturday, then warm to right around normal on Sunday. Friday night lows will be in the low to mid 40s to the north and in the mountains, and mid to upper 40s to the south. While similar temperatures are expected to the north Saturday night, cloud cover may keep temperatures a little warmer to the south. Lows remain well above normal Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 AM Thursday...

While models agree that a low pressure system approaches the area at the beginning of the long term period, there is still uncertainty in exactly how this will play out. The GFS brings a closed low into the area on Monday and then slowly moves off the Atlantic coast mid week. The ECMWF also brings a closed low into the area, but later -- possibly not until Monday night. It then has the low splitting to the south while a trough crosses to our north. Ridging then builds in on Wednesday. The Canadian offers yet another solution, bringing the system through as a shortwave Monday and Tuesday, then brings ridging in on Wednesday. With these variances in the models, have maintained a blended solution for the forecast that has the greatest potential for showers and storms Monday, then slightly less for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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