... A weak disturbance tonight into Sunday. A warm front affects the area first half of next week and then high pressure and diurnally driven convection will affect the latter half.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Saturday...
Surface high pressure over the area will provide for a pleasant afternoon and evening over the region with temperatures running a few degrees below normal this afternoon. Some fair weather cumulus have developed across portions of the area, but overall, plenty of sunshine will be had. Cloud cover will be a bit more prominent across the eastern mountains however.
Cloud cover will increase this evening, west to east, in association with a mid-level disturbance. In addition, a warm front will develop and approach from the south during the overnight. This should result in a much warmer night across the area, with lows generally in the 50s, with 40s across the higher terrain. Chances for a few light showers will be reintroduced as well, with the highest likelihood off to the south/west. Any rainfall should be light.
Temperature-wise, Sunday should be similar to what was seen on Saturday, with high temperatures hovering up to 5 degrees below normal in spots. With the warm front still situated just to the south of the area, mostly cloudy skies to start, with a transition to some afternoon sun should be the general theme. Isolated/scattered showers, mainly across the far southern/western areas, will be possible from time to time.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Saturday...
Active start to the period with an upper level cutoff low out west funneling in moisture from the Gulf which will promote rain showers spreading from south to north over the area during Sunday night. A surface low will spawn out ahead of this feature and head towards our area before stalling as it gets wrapped up in the features flow. High pressure to the northeast will maintain the surface lows warm frontal boundary in place along the region promoting unsettled weather and diurnally driven convection through the afternoons from Monday through Wednesday. The majority of the QPF will fall on Monday which is expected to be the wettest day, although a decent amount will spill over early on Tuesday. Modest instability and above moist adiabatic lapse rates according to forecast soundings will be plenty to support your run of the mill thunderstorms daily during maximum day time heating through the period.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Saturday...
High pressure will then build in late Wednesday although likely not strong enough to deter any possible diurnally driven convection for Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure overhead will rotate a few disturbances around the vicinity of the area which may or may not affect us directly. However, this will leave slight chance POPs for most of the area with slightly higher chance POPs for diurnally driven convection during the afternoons daily going into the weekend. Since a robust moisture flux will be ongoing still due to anticyclonic flow providing a southern stream to our west and a warming trend with temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 80's by the weekend, high pressure may not still be strong enough to prevent possible shower or thunderstorm chances for the afternoons/evenings, so went with guidance and left those in during that time frame.