Winterplace Ski Resort

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Ghent, WV

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure moves east of the area overnight tonight. A cold front arrives Thursday evening, with the chance for showers and isolated storms ahead of it. Slightly cooler weekend ahead.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 850 PM...

Quick update to better account for clear sky allowing for cold spots to radiate quickly this evening.

As of 805 PM Wednesday...

Forecast on track, with the area still under clear sky.

As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Overall, no significant changes to the near term forecast period. Warm and dry today, with surface high pressure and upper ridge in place. Low pressure will move east into the Great lakes late tonight and on Thursday, sweeping a cold front into the area late in the period, progged to be in the Ohio River vicinity towards the end of the near term period. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible later Thursday with approach of the front. A few storms could contain strong/damaging wind gusts, in the low cape/high shear setup. SPC has increased the marginal risk coverage to include the entire CWA, but better chances for severe still appear to be northern zones and north of the CWA.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Showers associated with the cold front will wrap up along the higher terrain as we open up the forecast period. By this time, instability will be winding down, especially with the loss of daytime heating, and should transition over to all rain late Thursday night.

Friday will feature mostly dry and cooler weather in the wake of the frontal passage, but should be rather fleeting as a secondary front and succession of shortwaves enter the region for the start of the weekend. The northern extent of the forecast area will likely receive rain from this feature, while our southern zones stay on the dry side of things on Saturday.

Temperatures tumble below average on Friday in response to the cold front with highs only anticipated to reach the low 60s in the central lowlands. Afternoon highs on Saturday slightly moderate a few degrees warmer in the lower elevations, while still hovering in the 40s/50s along the mountains. Heading into late Saturday night, a few areas in the northeast WV mountains could see patchy frost as temperatures dip down to near freezing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Rain potential returns to the forecast by the start of the work week as a developing low pressure system in the Midwest picks up speed and maturity by spreading into the Great Lakes region as its parent trough shifts eastward. Current model projections, while still varied amongst available solutions, has the developing tail end of the system swinging through the Central Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday. This feature will then keep the door open for shower potential through the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures will ebb and flow around normal through the period as the upper level disturbance crosses through the region.

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