... A weak cold front transits the area overnight with little fanfare. A stronger cold front crosses Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 745 PM Saturday...
Only minor adjustments to current observations were needed in regards to temperatures and POPs. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track heading into the evening.
As of 245 PM Saturday...
Added a mention of isolated showers across much of the area for the next few hours with some locally more vigorous cumulus noted on satellite.
As of 1235 PM Saturday...
Showery activity associated with prefrontal trough across our northern counties and a weak mid-level wave across our southern counties has largely dissipated or moved off at this hour. With continued heating, expect isolated showers and a perhaps a rumble of thunder near the mountains this afternoon, with activity rapidly dissipating by this evening.
Overnight tonight, a weak cold front will slowly slink south through the region with little, if any, noticeable impact. Slightly drier air trying to work in behind the front may help to breakup some morning valley fog across the northeast, contingent on how quickly the fog can become entrenched overnight.
Sunday looks to be a lovely late September day with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands with upper 60s to mid 70s in the mountains. The aforementioned cold front stalls in the vicinity of our southern border which could yield a few afternoon showers, mainly across SW VA and far S WV.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 PM Saturday...
Chances for showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase throughout the day Monday from southwest to northeast as moisture from the southwest pushes into the area. The best chance will be in the afternoon/evening with a decrease in coverage overnight Monday. Chances will then increase again Tuesday as moisture continues to filter into the area both from the southwest and ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the area from the west. Higher chances of showers are expected to begin creeping in along southeast Ohio by the end of the day Tuesday, overspreading the area Tuesday night as the front continues to move eastward toward the area.
At the upper levels, upper ridging moves out of the area Monday as a shortwave approaches from the southwest, aiding with chances for showers and storms. This shortwave is expected to move just south of the area on Tuesday ahead of a deep upper level trough to the west.
Temperatures for Monday are expected to be a few degrees above normal, cooling to closer to normal for Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 228 PM Saturday...
The aforementioned upper level trough approaches the area midweek as its associated cold front moves in at the surface. As this trough treks over the area, models show that the feature may develop a closed off low over the area with the troughing itself becoming more negatively tilted as it progresses toward the northeast.
The cold front should be fairly quick to make its way through once it reaches the area and is expected to move in sometime Wednesday, pushing off to the east of the area by Thursday. Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area ahead of this front. Timing of the heaviest rainfall with this system continues to not be quite locked in just yet as the GFS continues to insist the front will move through quicker than the ECMWF and Canadian show. The GFS shows much of the precipitation moving into the area Wednesday morning with the heaviest chances for the afternoon. It then has the system almost completely exiting the area by Thursday morning. The Canadian and ECMWF continue their slower approach, moving in Wednesday afternoon through the evening and maintaining chances for showers through the day Thursday. Have allowed slight chances for Thursday as lingering showers may be possible if the slower of the solutions pans out.
Surface high pressure is then expected to move in behind the front leading to drier conditions for the end of the week. Upper ridging to the east breaks down at the end of the week as models indicate another upper low potentially swinging down into the area from the north/northwest. Models disagree a lot more with the end of the forecast with some keeping high pressure in place for the weekend while others bring in a possibility for showers. Have left slight chances possible for showers on Saturday for now as the secondary upper low could allow for showers and potentially storms to develop over the area.
Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be below normal and much more fall-like as the cold front sweeps through midweek. Guidance indicates a gradual warming trend through the end of next week with temperatures reaching just below normal by the weekend.