... Precipitation tapers off across the area late tonight. High pressure builds in Thursday with drier and warmer conditions into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 825 PM Wednesday...
High resolution models suggest temperatures should drop into the low to mid 30s across portions of central and northern WV. However, abundant cloudiness noticeable in satellite imagery is expected to move across southeast OH and later across most parts of WV by early Thursday morning. These clouds could prevent frost from happening over these areas.
Expecting frost over areas that clear out overnight. Therefore, issued a Frost Advisory for portions central and northern WV from midnight through 9 AM Thursday morning.
As of 125 PM Wednesday...
Cool and showery conditions continue across the area with moist northerly flow in place, as upper low lingers across the northeast U.S., with upper ridge across central U.S. This shower activity should dissipate later this evening/tonight, as surface high pressure and upper ridge gradually nudges in from the west, and low off to east becomes less of an influence.
Biggest concern tonight, is how much clearing will be able to take hold, and whether or not frost will be an issue. Depending on which model you go with, we could remain either overcast across the entire CWA with low level moisture trapped below 850mb as we continue to experience cold advection, or we could see total clearing across far northern zones. Have pretty high confidence mountains, and areas south of the Charleston- Huntington metro areas will hold on to enough cloud cover overnight to prevent frost, but on the fence about some areas to the north, i.e. parts of southeast Ohio and north central WV counties. Other conundrum, is if clearing does develop, will there be enough hours before the sun rises for much in the way for frost to develop. Therefore, after consult with frost/freeze focal point, elected to hold off on issuance and have the evening shift heavily monitor the situation and issue an advisory if necessary.
On Thursday, expect a dry and mostly sunny day to gradually take hold, with temperatures rising into the 50s to lower 60s for most of the area, with 40s across higher terrain.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Wednesday...
Going off of the previous short term discussion, the blocking ridge over northern Canada will affect our area by preventing eastward progression of northern plains trough axis. Instead, it will remain in the counter clockwise flow of the parent upper low over western Canada, and the associated cold front will be left with little energy to push into the middle Ohio Valley. So after another cold night Thursday night with frost potential, a warming trend proceeds in weak ridging aloft, and gradually moderating temperatures through the period.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday...
Decaying cold front and lingering spotty showers affect the area late Sunday/early Sunday night. Expect some enhancement to a now largely stationary boundary due to the strengthening low pressure system organizing over the central plains, and tracking into the western Great Lakes. Boundary likely to become a weak warm front during this time, so the extended temperatures stay on the mild to warm side despite more broad chance POPs coming up in the long term.