... Final day of warm conditions. Cold front arrives tonight with much colder air occurring this weekend. Another cold frontal passage Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 224 AM Friday...
Today will be the last day of very nice weather conditions for quite awhile. Warm southwest low level flow is prog to gradually strengthen today which will aid in another round of unseasonably warm temperatures. H85 temps are prog to be slightly cooler than Thursday's values, but greater diurnal mixing is prog to occur. Thus, I think afternoon high temps will be pretty close to what occurred Thursday afternoon. An uptick in moisture advection should result in a minor Cu field developing around midday and into the afternoon, with somewhat better cumulus coverage and associated cloud streets expected across SE OH/NE KY and western WV. If moisture advection is a little greater than expected then isolated showers may develop today. All-in-all, however, most of the area should remain dry.
Better chances of precip should occur tonight as an early season modified-arctic cold front slams into the CWA. A band of showers with scattered embedded convection is expected to progress ESE across Ohio late this afternoon and into the evening hours. This precip should hold together, for the most part, through the evening before gradually losing its organization some as it moves into West Virginia by late evening. Despite the modest CAPE values expected, lightning development will remain possible for much of the CWA this evening/tonight given the amount of abrupt forcing with the cold front. The front should be through the entire CWA by sunrise Saturday and I have actually sped up the timing of the front compared to what several guidance members indicate given that the density of these cold shallow airmasses often propagate faster. Some quick development of isentropic upglide is prog to occur after FROPA as a warm and moist flow around H85 remains over the cold near surface airmass. High temps for Saturday's climate data will occur very early in the morning.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday...
The aforementioned cold front will move out of the region on Saturday as precipitation chances will be focused along the eastern half of the area with the highest chances along the mountains. Saturday night will have a brief dry period as high pressure builds off to the northwest before chances increase again for the mountains by Sunday morning, with slight chances expanding westward on Sunday. Precip chances will increase from the northwest to southeast as another cold front approaches the area Monday night. Additionally, upper level troughing off to the west begins to push towards the area at the end of this period.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday...
Chances of precipitation linger on Tuesday as the cold front pushes off to the east and the upper level trough continues to approach the area from the west through the week. Models show surface high pressure pushing into the area Wednesday into Thursday, however the upper level troughing and low level moisture over the area may assist in keeping precipitation chances across the area. Models then show surface low pressure moving in from the west/southwest Thursday into Friday but show quite a bit of disagreement with this system. The GFS and ECMWF both have a northeastward path of this low while the Canadian keeps it to the south. The GFS shows the low moving to the south of the area with the ECMWF bringing it a little further north and with a slightly faster track than the GFS. The ECMWF also shows another low pressure system moving in behind the first into the weekend. The GFS and Canadian on the other hand shows high pressure dominating the area by the end of the period.