|Dew Point:||25.2°F (-3.8°C)|
|Wind:||From the SE at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 5.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.32" (1026.7 mb)|
Light Rain LikelyHigh: 45 Low: 34
Light Snow Likely then Snow Showers LikelyHigh: 34 Low: 20
Partly SunnyHigh: 30 Low: 24
Light SnowHigh: 33 Low: 30
Chance Snow ShowersHigh: 38 Low: 29
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind 3 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain likely before 7am, then snow likely between 7am and 8am, then snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.
A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Northwest wind 6 to 13 mph.
A slight chance of snow and a slight chance of freezing rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Snow and a slight chance of freezing rain before 3pm, then rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Snow before 7pm, then snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
... A mix of rain and snow is expected tonight and Tuesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Dry but cold conditions are expected Wednesday with building high pressure.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Digging upper trough over the central CONUS will lift a low pressure system northeastward tonight. While the low pressure system itself will remain well to our east, we will receive some precipitation along the northwest flank as a result of interaction with a cold front, analyzed just west of our region currently, and a shortwave embedded in the upper flow over the Great Lakes. Some moisture is already spreading into our southern zones though much of this is most likely virga or light rain/snow given dewpoint depressions.
As a result of the aforementioned upper pattern, a mix of rain and snow is expected, especially as you head north and west into OH and NW PA given model soundings and wet-bulb processes. Accumulation will be limited given boundary layer temperatures at onset, with rain anticipated for a bulk of the period over the south until cold advection resumes Tue morning. Overall, with most of the lower half of the column below efficient snowfall growth and expected air temperatures, kept snow ratios very low, with maybe an inch or two possible in our northernmost zones. Low temperatures will remain near seasonal averages.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The surface low will rapidly head toward the NE coast on Tuesday. Strong cold advection is expected, though the period for efficient snow fall is rather short as dry air advects overhead and moisture below the inversion has difficulty tapping into the dendritic growth zone. That and given forecast wind direction aloft, would think the focus for snow showers initially would be over the I-80 corridor with the development of Lake Bands. Better conditions for upslope snow showers over the ridges would hold off until later in the afternoon.
By Tuesday night, strong subsidence will really limit any further snow production and accumulation. Have minimal amounts in the north and ridge zones through Wednesday morning.
High pressure will build overhead for Wednesday with cloud cover diminishing. That being said, temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will remain 10-15 degrees below seasonal normals.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Next low pressure system is still progged to approach Thursday although there remain some timing issues given strength of the upper low. Maintained likely PoPs but adjusted timing a bit slower given latest ecmwf and nam guidance. That being said, there still remains some concern for freezing rain/mixed precip at onset on Thursday, though this may be less of a concern if the models continue to slow the system down. Have opted to add the freezing rain mention, though confidence is still low given timing concerns.
After this systems departure, the broad upper will be reinforced maintaining the chance for showers and below average temperatures through the weekend.