|Wind||19.57mph from the W|
... Another front brings colder air and a burst of strong winds to the region this morning. High pressure and moderating temperatures are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. By the end of the week a low pressure system over the central United States will result in widespread rain for our area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Wind Advisory continues for areas along Blue Ridge mountains.
2. Light snow accumulation possible in western Greenbrier County.
3. Cold temperatures.
An upper level trough centered over southern Ontario will move east today into tonight. A shortwave will rotate east around the based of the upper trough across the Appalachians today. This feature will generate snow showers and snow flurries along the western slopes. Upslope flow snow showers may produce a light snow accumulation in western Greenbrier with a dusting possible along the higher ridges south into NC. The current wind advisories look good with the strongest winds this morning, then wind speed decrease into tonight.
Snow showers and clouds erode this afternoon once northwest winds subside or weaken. Will stay on the cooler side of guidance for temperatures today into tonight. The combination of winds and temperatures will produce wind chills as cold as the single digits and teens this morning. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 20s in the northern mountains to the mid 40s in the piedmont. Low temperatures tonight will vary from around 10 degrees in the mountains to the teens in the piedmont.
Moderate confidence in Near Term Forecast.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Dry weather through Thursday, rain arrives late Friday. 2. Cold temperatures start, then warm to near to slightly above normal.
Surface high prosier will expand eastward into the Mid Atlantic through the midweek, as 500mb ridging develops over the southeastern US in response to troughing over the southwestern US. Ensembles indicate lower than normal precipitable water values with this airmass, increasing confidence in dry weather through Thursday. A shortwave will head northeastward towards the Mid Atlantic from the southwest by the end of the week, with an associated surface low pressure system also approaching the area, as the surface high shifts east and into the Atlantic. The southwesterly flow ahead of the low and around the surface high will increase moisture advection into the area, leading to an increase in cloud cover for Thursday before the front arrives. Most ensemble guidance suggest rain will begin first in the west by Friday morning, reaching the Piedmont by Friday afternoon. At this time, rain amounts look modest, between a quarter inch to a half an inch, with greater probabilities for amounts up to half an inch west of the Blue Ridge. Stronger 850mb winds will cross the area Wednesday, so expecting an increase in winds for the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon, decreasing overnight.
Temperatures will start this forecast period off colder than normal for Wednesday morning. Temperatures will start a warming trend thanks to the increase in southwesterly flow for Thursday and Friday.
Forecast confidence is moderate.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Tuesday...
1. Unsettled, wet weather over the weekend. 2. Near to slightly above normal temperatures.
This forecast period will be unsettled, as a couple rounds of rain cross the area. The initial front from Friday will be situated across the southeastern US by Saturday, before lifting northward by the end of the weekend. As the front moves closer to the area, rain chances will increase again for late Saturday/early Sunday. However, there are differences in the long range deterministic models as to how far north this front will go, and thus in how much of the area will receive rain. The greatest probabilities for rain are mainly south of central North Carolina and into the Gulf Coast states at this time. Another cold front will approach the area from the west by the beginning of the next work week, which will continue rain chances through the remainder of the weekend. However, given how far out in the forecast period this system is, confidence is low in the timing of the frontal passage.
Temperatures will moderate through this forecast period, but continued cloud cover through most of the weekend will keep overnight lows warmer and daytime highs cooler. Highs will be mostly in the 50s areawide, and lows in the 40s.
Forecast confidence is moderate, but low in timing of frontal passage for the beginning of the week.