Homestead Ski Resort / Hot Springs

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure will provide for dry weather today into tonight. A low pressure system over the central United States arrives by Friday and will result in cloud cover and an opportunity for rain. Rain amounts from this system are expected to be light, generally less than a quarter inch or less.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 150 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Dry and warmer today

High pressure along the Southeast coast will slide east today into tonight. Clockwise wind flow around the high to bring moderation of temperatures with warm air advection. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the mountains to the upper 50s in the Piedmont. High clouds will slowly increase as moisture begins to increase from the approach of our next storm system. It will turn out cloudy tonight with low temperatures varying from the upper 20s in the mountains to mid 30s along the southern Blue Ridge.

High confidence in the Near Term Forecast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM EST Thursday...

Confidence is high for an overall cloudy weekend with occasional chances of light rain showers.

A wave of low pressure should track across the Ohio River Valley on Friday. Although most of the dynamical energy stays to the northwest, the Mid Atlantic should see clouds and light rain showers. The highest chance of rain will be west of the Blue Ridge as the moisture may struggle to reach the Piedmont. Because of the clouds and rain, temperatures on Friday were pushed towards the cooler side of guidance. However, a southerly breeze will help in providing warm air advection that should allow Saturday and Sunday to trend milder with highs reaching the 50s and 60s.

Rain chances should lessen during Friday night into Saturday, but a second wave of low pressure should pass to the south by Saturday evening into Saturday night. Light rain showers should spread across northwest North Carolina and most of the Virginia Piedmont from this second wave. Meanwhile, a third wave of low pressure will develop in response to an approaching upper level trough in the Ohio River Valley to help push a cold front across the Appalachian Mountains by Sunday. More light rain showers will accompany the cold front to finish an overall cloudy weekend with not much in terms of rainfall amounts. After this frontal passage, the wind will turn towards the west and increase, while temperatures head downward to set up a colder start for the upcoming work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM EST Thursday...

Confidence is high for colder air arriving along with upslope snow showers by the middle of the week.

Monday will feature a gusty west wind from the back side of a departing cold front and the potential for upslope rain showers west of the Blue Ridge as a shortwave trough embedded within a broad upper level trough passes overhead. The Piedmont should turn dry from the resulting downslope flow. By Monday night into Tuesday morning, the upslope moisture will fade to only occupy the higher elevations of southeast West Virginia, and the colder air may change any rain showers to snow showers. Another shortwave trough should swing towards the Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, more cold air should arrive with the wind turning towards the northwest and becoming gusty again, while upslope snow showers and flurries will spread over most locations west of the Blue Ridge.