Blowing Rock Weather

Blowing Rock, NC

Currently

Temperature 51.69°F
Feels Like 50.85°F
Humidity 91%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 11.01mph from the WNW
Clear sky 52°F Clear sky
Today Sunny
High: 67°F Low: 48°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 65°F Low: 44°F
Friday Sunny
High: 66°F Low: 50°F
Saturday Sunny
High: 70°F Low: 53°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 68°F Low: 55°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley today pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon. A few showers and a stray thunderstorm will be possible today with the frontal passage. Dry and cooler high pressure will build in behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) A few showers expected again this afternoon with frontal passage...perhaps an isolated thunderstorm.

Overall pattern features trough in the east and ridging over the west. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave flow will pass across the region this afternoon. Mix of sun and clouds today, starting the day with mostly clear skies, but will have clouds develop throughout the day. Will be enough lift with the passage of this wave/cold front for isolated showers in the afternoon. Best chance for any precipitation will be across the mountains and southern Shenandoah Valley.

Winds also breezy in advance of the front. West winds will increase by late morning and will remain gusty into the afternoon. Some 20mph range gusts possible in the higher terrain.

Cooler/drier air arrives behind the front tonight with temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s in the mountains. Mid 50s for the lower elevations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Unseasonably cool through the period.

2). Benign and largely dry weather expected through the period.

A broad and deep upper low anchored over eastern Canada will only drift very slowly eastward through this period. This will be the main player in the weather across the eastern U.S. providing an unseasonably cool and dry northerly flow into the region through the period. While a few light rain showers remain possible across mainly the mountains of West Virginia, the chance for showers even there will diminish as the trough axis shifts east of the region. Variable mostly daytime low/mid clouds from steep lapse rates given strong late May/early June insolation and unseasonably cold air aloft on the order of +6C on Thursday will diminish going into Friday as temperatures aloft begin to warm as the upper trough shifts further east.

With 850mb temperatures Thursday in the single digits roughly in the +5C to +8C range, below normal temperatures will continue, especially at night. Thursday promises to be the coldest morning of the week with lows in the upper 30s possible at locations such as Burkes Garden and Lewisburg and near 40 at Blacksburg and other similar locations along/west of the Blue Ridge. Most areas, however, will see lows in the 40s early Thursday. Daytime temperatures will warm into the 60s/70s west and mostly 70s east Thursday and Friday. These minimum temperatures are roughly 10-15 degrees below normal and the maximum temperatures are around 5-10 degrees below normal for late May/early June.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - No Thunderstorms Expected Through This Period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1). Benign weather continues through Saturday.

2). Unsettled weather conditions begin to creep into the area early next week, beginning Sunday in the west.

3). Temperatures slowly return to more normal levels for early June.

The quiet pattern of late week will continue into the first half of the weekend as the large upper low over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada slowly drifts east. In its wake, the upper flow will trend more zonal. This will allow low-level moisture to slowly increase and disturbances from the Midwest to move in our direction.

The models continue to slow down the arrival time of any rainfall next week. It now appears that it will be at least Sunday afternoon before rain chances are high enough to warrant a 15% or greater pop. The threat for rain will increase Monday through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light at this point and no severe weather is anticipated at this point. Neither SPC nor WPC have highlighted any threats over the region for the period at this time.

As 850mb temperatures creep back to more normal levels for this time of year, namely +12C to +15C by next week, look for temperatures to recover from the late week/early weekend chill. Maximum temperatures will warm back into the 70s west and 80s east by Sunday with low temperatures rising from the 40s Friday to the 50s and even 60s in urban areas by Sunday and Monday.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

Downtown Blowing Rock
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