Sugar Mountain

Sugar Mountain, NC

Currently

Temperature 72°F
Feels Like 75.72°F
Humidity 62%
Pressure 1018mb
Wind 4mph from the
Broken clouds 72°F Broken clouds
This Afternoon Isolated Rain Showers
High: 77°F Low: 62°F
Monday Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 72°F Low: 55°F
Tuesday Sunny
High: 75°F Low: 61°F
Wednesday Slight Chance Rain Showers then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 78°F Low: 62°F
Thursday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 74°F Low: 61°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Hot temperatures will linger through next week, with humidity increasing east of the mountains starting Wednesday. A cold front will track across the area overnight tonight into daybreak Monday bringing a weak line of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area. Drier conditions return the rest of the day Monday, lingering into the first half of Wednesday. Another cold front will push across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, potentially bringing better shower and thunderstorm chances to the area mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Sunday: Satellite imagery shows a band of higher-level clouds moving over the mtns/foothills...messing with the low cloud development...but that should only be a temporary delay. The SPC mesoanalysis shows that sfc-based CAPE has reached 1000-1500 J/kg as of late morning...not terribly impressive but not nothing and we are uncapped at the moment...but there remains some indications that we should mix out a bit in the afternoon and keep the buoyancy modest. Meanwhile, we lack a trigger other than differential heating. The HRRR and some other CAMs are not interested in developing convection this afternoon across the region, while the latest NAM Nest looks overdone with its depiction of a line of showers/storms east of the mtns this afternoon. Think the latter model is overly-optimistic (as usual) with its dewpoints and thus its amount of CAPE. So, the precip probs will not be changed much from their currently low slight chances mainly over NC thru early evening, and we still prefer to ramp up the precip probs in the tonight period as some forcing arrives in the form of a short wave vort lobe that drops in from the WNW. Note the sfc reflection of this appears not to be the band of showers moving southeast from the OH River at this hour. The guidance weakens this feature somewhat thru afternoon, and develops a new band of broken showers/storms that comes over the mtns after dark. For the high temps today, think the fcst is in good shape, so no changes and no Heat Advisory.

Otherwise...between an upper anticyclone centered over Texas, and an upper low off the Carolina/Georgia coast, we remain in a relatively neutral pattern without much forcing, but also with less suppression. A few runs of the CAMs depict convective activity continuing to propagate east after 00Z, by which time height falls may work their magic; PoPs thus continue and in some cases increase then. The trough also will bring a weak cold front across the Appalachians overnight, which will bring the best overall chance of the period for the NC mountains and GA/SC Piedmont, but still no better than scattered coverage. Low clouds will develop along the front in the NC mountains but should begin to diminish by morning; high level clouds will be seen over the Piedmont.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages:

1) Humidity has Trended Down Monday into Tuesday

2) Mostly Dry Conditions are now Expected Monday into Tuesday

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...The last few forecast cycles it was looking like most areas along the I-77 corridor and in the Upper Savannah River Valley would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, especially on Monday afternoon, but that is no longer the case. Guidance has just started depicting much lower dew points (and thus lower humidity) filtering into the region behind a departing cold front to kick-off the workweek. While there's still the potential for portions of northeast Georgia and the far western SC Upstate to still see heat indices climb into the lower 100s Monday afternoon, it's looking less likely that these areas will flirt with Heat Advisory Criteria (which starts at a heat index of 105 degrees). Heat indices on Tuesday are expected to be lower than Monday's, generally remaining below 100 degrees. All things considered, this is a good trend to have. The downside to this drier airmass is that precipitation chances have lowered quite significantly. Mostly dry conditions are now expected on Monday thanks to guidance showing a much faster FROPA (front should be south of the area by daybreak Monday). However, a few isolated showers, or perhaps even a thunderstorm, may be able to eke out behind the front on Monday but there's low confidence on this due to the dry air behind the front. Dry high pressure will filter into the region throughout Monday, lingering through Tuesday night leading to dry weather across the board. High temperatures are still expected to climb into the lower to mid 90s each afternoon east of the mountains, remaining around 5- 8 degrees above climo. Lows each night should end up around 2-5 degrees above climo.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages:

1) Humidity Increases East of the Mountains Starting Wednesday and May Linger through the Remainder of the Long Term

2) Another Cold Front Tracks Across the Area Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, Potentially Bringing Better Coverage of Showers and Thunderstorms

3) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances May Linger through Rest of the Long Term but Confidence is Low

As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...A cold front will track out of the Midwest throughout Wednesday before tracking across the western Carolinas overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least the first half of Wednesday before shower and thunderstorm chances return the second half of Wednesday ahead of the main FROPA. Capped PoPs chance (below 50%) area-wide Wednesday into Thursday as global models are still not in agreement regarding the coverage or timing of convection. Humidity will increase on Wednesday ahead of the front, allowing heat indices to climb into the upper 90s and lower 100s east of the mountains. The I- 77 corridor and the Upper Savannah River Valley should see the highest heat indices on Wednesday, with a isolated areas potentially flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria (which starts at a heat index of 105 degrees). However, most locations should remain below Heat Advisory Criteria on Wednesday. Temps on Wednesday should climb into the mid 90s east of the mountains and the lower 90s in the mountain valleys. This should lead to Highs around 8-10 degrees above climo Wednesday afternoon. However, highs could end up a few degrees lower depending on the timing of convection Wednesday afternoon. Lows Wednesday night will end up around 6-9 degrees above climo thanks to increasing cloud cover and convective chances. Highs on Thursday should end up a few degrees cooler, but are still expected to reach into the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains. Humidity looks to linger on Thursday (for now) despite the FROPA. Thus, heat indices may once again climb into the upper 90s/lower 100s across portions of the I-77 corridor and the Upper Savannah River Valley. Lows Thursday night should remain around 6-9 degrees above climo.

The cold front will stall along the Carolina Coast Friday into Saturday while a sfc high tracks north of the Carolinas. Global guidance continues to show some lingering convection Friday into Saturday so went with low-end chance PoPs (35% or less) area-wide the second half of the long term. Highs should rebound into the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains both days, remaining around 5- 7 degrees above climo. Humidity may linger heading into the weekend as well, so heat indices may climb back into the upper 90s/lower 100s each afternoon, mainly across portions of the I-77 corridor and the Upper Savannah River Valley. Lows each night should remain around 6-9 degrees above climo.

Sugar Ski & Country Club