Canaan Valley Resort

Davis, WV

Currently

Temperature 46°F
Feels Like 42.04°F
Humidity 98%
Pressure 1021mb
Wind 2.01mph from the W
Overcast clouds 46°F Overcast clouds
This Afternoon Slight Chance Light Rain
High: 48°F Low: 39°F
Sunday Areas Of Fog then Mostly Sunny
High: 58°F Low: 40°F
Monday Mostly Sunny
High: 61°F Low: 43°F
Tuesday Chance Light Rain
High: 62°F Low: 45°F
Wednesday Light Rain Likely
High: 52°F Low: 37°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Aside from some areas of fog early Sunday morning, dry weather returns into Tuesday with temperatures increasing well above normal to start the upcoming workweek. Rain chances return late Tuesday as an unsettled pattern takes hold with periodic rain chances continuing through the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry but cloudy (some lingering drizzle in the ridges). - Areas of fog developing overnight. - Low temperatures well above normal.

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Only made some small tweaks to sky cover grids, mainly upward, through the evening hours, with abundant moisture remaining in the low levels below an inversion.

Previous discussion...

Upper ridging will start to build tonight in the wake of the departing shortwave, but with little to no change in the air mass through tonight despite exiting precipitation, we'll keep dreary and overcast conditions in place as lingering moisture remains trapped beneath a lowering inversion. Continued cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s, and with lingering boundary layer moisture and a wet ground from the light rainfall earlier in the day, some areas of fog are likely to develop as winds diminish and crossover temperatures should be achieved.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns Sunday and Monday. - Temperatures warm significantly and push into the low 70s by Monday.

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Dry weather will keep hold to close out the weekend and start the next workweek as upper riding builds and amplifies. Lingering cloud cover still trapped beneath a lowering subsidence inversion will erode through the day on Sunday, so we may see some more breaks in the clouds come late afternoon. The latest HREF has a rather large spread in cloud coverage across a lot of the area, so it's certainly possible that we see more sun and clouds and high temperatures reach a couple degrees higher than currently forecast. Regardless, continued southerly flow will promote warm advection and the start of a notable warm up; highs will tap into the 60s for Sunday. Probabilities of exceeding 70 aren't out of the question especially if clouds do scatter out with a 40-50% chance confined to our far southern zones.

The better chance to break the 70 degree mark comes Monday with temperatures increasing to 15-20 degrees above average. We'll feature more sun as drier air works in and promotes plenty of insolation coupled with 850 mb temperatures of 8-10C in southerly flow aloft and low level thicknesses increasing to 1350-1370 m. Latest NBM probabilities indicate an 80-90% chance of exceeding 70 degrees for most of the area (40-50% north of I-80). There's around a 65% chance of breaking the record high of 74F at Pittsburgh on Monday (see Climate section for more). Overnight lows Sunday will only fall to the mid 40s with closer to 50 Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern will keep periodic rain in the forecast through the end of the week. - Specifics in timing remain uncertain with mid-and late-week precipitation chances. - Temperatures decline through the end of the week.

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A more unsettled pattern takes hold for the remainder of the week next week as a train of shortwaves slide through the area. A coastal low accompanying the first wave will develop off the coast of the Carolinas and push north on Tuesday. Confidence is overall high amongst the ensembles in the progression of the low, and best forcing, mostly displaced to our east, so precip from this feature should largely remain out of our area. We'll get one more day of well above average temperatures on Tuesday as southerly flow continues pumping mild air into the region and 850 mb temperatures still sit around 8-10C which supports a 70-90% chance of highs >70 from Pittsburgh south (lower chances further north).

What does look to bring a better chance for rain is a surface trough/weakening front pushing through sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday, though at this point, more spread is noted amongst the ensemble clusters with the upper level pattern both in regard to timing and strength of the associated upper trough. A stronger, slower trough could bump precip totals up to closer to a half inch where the NBM 75th percentile sits while a weaker, faster trough would hold them down closer to a quarter of an inch akin to the NBM 25th percentile. Wouldn't rule out some thunder accompanying the frontal passage, but left mention out for now until details become a little clearer.

Guidance then indicates additional surface low development out of the Southeast late Wednesday which may interact with the crossing surface trough, though will have to wait for better agreement with the guidance to get a handle on this. At the least, unsettled weather with continued rain chances look to continue through the end of the week with temperatures gradually lowering but still remaining above average.

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