Canaan Valley Resort

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Warmer temperatures are expected today and through the weekend. Widespread light rain chances return early Friday with periodic rain chances continuing into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor height rises this morning as a shortwave trough digs into the upper Midwest. As the south-southwest flow increases, warm air advection is expected throughout the day. The aforementioned shortwave trough will push through the region late today. This wave will provide an increase in high cirrus clouds later this morning and through the afternoon. Warming surface temperatures are expected with highs pushing close to five degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A deepening trough will cutoff as it digs into the Midwest tonight. A surface reflection underneath the upper low will move northward tonight and Friday. High and midlevel clouds will streak northward ahead of the low and overspread the region late tonight. The increased cloud cover will keep our overnight lows cool, but above normal for the end of November.

The entire system will weaken as it moves toward and over the state of Indiana on Friday. The main shortwave associated with the system will stream over northern PA Friday afternoon along a stalled baroclinic zone. A dry slot will also spread across the region Friday afternoon. This should generally keep rainfall light, although there still remains a descent amount of spread in the model solutions. The NBM 10th pct for QPF on Friday is close to .05 for much of the area while the 90th comes in at around .5 to .6. As the strong large scale ascension moves across the northern reaches of the forecast area, and the atmosphere dries out aloft, would think staying close to the 50th pct is a good call. That would mean around .1 to .2 for much of the area. Warm air advection is anticipated once again on Friday, although it will stall in the afternoon as the shortwave passes across the north. The clouds and rain will keep temperatures very similar to what is expected today.

The surface low will continue to fill as it moves to the northwest of the region Friday night. The main shortwave will also rapidly move toward the northeast Friday evening. This will bring a decrease in rain chances from south to north Friday night.

The low will stall to the north of the region on Saturday, getting stuck over a now quasi-stationary front. A few showers over the northern half of the region is possible on Saturday but this threat should decrease during the afternoon. NBM probabilities for QPF approach 0 Saturday afternoon for the entire region although cloud cover is expected to hang around. The warm air advection will be put on hold Saturday with the surface low sitting to our north. The flow on the backside of the low will try and push cooler air southward. A nice temperature gradient will develop over the region as the low tries to advect cooler air southward but the mid and upper level flow out of the southwest tries to push warmer air northward. A range of highs should be expected on Saturday with a 10 to 15 degrees difference from the northern border of the forecast area to the southern one.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The broad west coast trough/east coast ridge type pattern previously described will break down with the next upper trough passage. Timing and synoptic details of that trough remain elusive as well as any additional shortwave movement before its arrival. Confidence is high the trough axis should arrive by Monday afternoon and generally to persist through midweek. Though ensemble spread remains elevated through this period, there is enough consensus to suggest the following basic trends:

- Above normal temperature will remain Sunday into early Monday. - Temperature will trend near to below normal by Wednesday. - Precipitation is likely to occur from Sunday through the middle of next week, but timing and extent of any dry periods remains fuzzy.