Canaan Valley Resort

Davis, WV

Currently

Temperature 71°F
Feels Like 67.84°F
Humidity 74%
Pressure 1021mb
Wind 1.01mph from the ESE
Clear sky 71°F Clear sky
Today Sunny
High: 83°F Low: 64°F
Monday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 84°F Low: 68°F
Tuesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 87°F Low: 66°F
Wednesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 81°F Low: 61°F
Thursday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 71°F Low: 54°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A more active weather pattern featuring increased thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather will return later tonight through Wednesday, followed by dry and seasonable weather after the passage of a cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Well above normal temperatures and largely dry conditions through the afternoon. -------------------------------------------------------------------

A mostly clear sky will continue this morning, with remaining patchy valley fog dissipating shortly. The 12Z PBZ sounding shows dry and relatively warm air above 700mb, which will not only limit CAPE potential into mid-afternoon, but will stunt the height of any convection that does try to form. A dry forecast continues through 19/20Z with relatively high confidence.

Beyond that, uncertainly increases. Most CAMs agree that we will see little to no impact from the decaying complex in far NW OH/southeast MI other than a possible cloud increase, but differ on handling of upstream activity in WI/IL. Latest HRRR runs are consistent in eroding this activity as well through the afternoon, while other earlier CAMs run shows various scenarios in maintaining this convection to some degree through the afternoon, with a bit better chance in eastern Ohio. Going to continue to lean towards less activity through 00Z, given the environment over our region, keeping some low PoPs focused mainly on western counties with the ongoing uncertainty.

High temperatures around 10F above normal on average are expected across the region today. Winds will veer slightly as as the surface ridge subtly shifts southeastward.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Active weather with the potential for severe hazards will be possible possible during the period until the passage of a cold front on Wednesday.

- Heat risks continue but will be dependent on convective evolution and resultant cloud cover.

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The mentioned shortwave/decaying MCS is pegged by models to help erode/cool the warm air aloft and prime the region for additional shortwave movement overnight into Monday. Ensembles are trending toward higher probabilities for showers and thunderstorms ahead of that wave Monday, but much variation remains (and will be tethered, in part, to upstream convective evolution). General consensus still favors an afternoon timing where mean SBCAPE values will range from 2000-3000 J/kg, weak shear and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. These would indicate a damaging wind (and lower probability hail threat) environment via either individual storm clusters or a secondary MCS. However, at least one CAM favors morning convection across the area before a more robust MCS Monday evening. Morning/early afternoon convection could certainly throw a wrench in more organized evening storms.

Timing and presence of convection will also greatly determine the extent of potential heat risks. The lack of convection and cloud cover through a portion of the afternoon could foster mid 90s highs with rising dewpoints, creating fairly widespread heat indices above 100F; early convection and/or lingering cloud cover may make it difficult to even hit 90.

Ensembles favor additional shortwave movement south of a deepening upper level trough north of the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The more well developed trough is then favored to push a cold front through the region Wednesday afternoon/evening and position broad upper troughing over the Great Lakes to end the work week. In a broad sense, this pattern lends to a peak in hot/humid conditions and potential severe weather Tuesday; peak shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday with frontal passage.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperature return Thursday through the end of the week.

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High pressure moving in behind the cold front and cool sfc advection will return dry conditions to the region Thursday. Thursday's highs are forecast to dip several degrees below normal, before a warming trend begins Friday and into next weekend.

Canaan Valley Resort
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