Canaan Valley Resort

Davis, WV

Currently

Temperature 58°F
Feels Like 54.05°F
Humidity 79%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 8.79mph from the W
Broken clouds 58°F Broken clouds
Today Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
High: 62°F Low: 46°F
Thursday Mostly Sunny
High: 62°F Low: 39°F
Friday Sunny
High: 65°F Low: 43°F
Saturday Sunny
High: 72°F Low: 51°F
Sunday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 71°F Low: 54°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Crossing disturbances will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. Cooler than average temperatures are expected through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected throughout the day today. - High temperature around 5 degrees below the daily average. -------------------------------------------------------------------

5am update... A Special Weather Statement was issued covering much of western PA, northern WV, and portions of eastern OH to highlight areas of fog that can have localized pockets of dense fog (favoring river valleys). Impending sunrise and initiation of mixing or the progression of a line of mostly light rain showers eastward should reduce fog impacts by 9am. The rest of the forecast package remains on track.

Rest of the discussion...

An embedded shortwave within the Great Lakes trough will traverse the Ohio River Valley today, sweeping from Indiana early this morning to the Mid-Atlantic by tonight. Vort advection induced lift will create one area of showers with intermittent periods of thunderstorms (favoring the afternoon) that is likely to move along and just south of I-70 through the day. Elsewhere, diurnal heating combined with cold air aloft will generate 500-1000 J/kg that should translate to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity areawide from the late morning to early evening hours. Weak shear should preclude a severe threat but may foster more prolonged deluges as storm propagation will be minimal and trough axis passage may foster localized mesoscale rain bands. Flooding is not anticipated, but there is a low probability for localized flash flooding given those preceding factors.

Exiting of the upper level trough axis to the east will see surface high pressure and subsidence build during the evening and overnight hours. The expectation is for decaying convective activity and clearing skies as residual cool advection drops area temperature around 5 degrees below the daily average. Pockets of fog, favoring river vally locations, may be possible as well.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather is expected through Saturday. - Temperature moderates through the period. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Digging of the upper trough along the eastern seaboard will promote dry but cool northerly flow over the Upper Ohio River Valley region through Saturday. Slow height rises as upper ridging edges east from the Central Plains is expected to promote gradual temperature moderation; slightly below average temperature Thursday will become slightly above average by Saturday. Strong influence from surface high pressure centered near to over the area will result in bountiful amounts of sunshine during this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday into early next week. - Weakly forced systems mean chances will be tethered to convective evolution west of the region. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles favor increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough that will shunt narrow ridging to the south. However, variations in shortwave strength alter the timing, convective environment, and overall storm coverage during this period. High pressure to the east will promote warm, moist advection ahead of this system and help to maintain above normal high/low temperatures.

Thereafter, the overall pattern trends toward weak westerlies aloft through early next week. Embedded shortwaves may offer periodic shower/thunderstorm chances but will be much more dependent on convective evolution to the west to determine timing/coverage/probability of occurrence for the forecast area. There is higher confidence that broad height rises should enable further warming areawide, making low to mid 80 values more likely by Tuesday.

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