Valle Crucis NC Weather

Valle Crucis, NC


Temperature 84.09°F
Feels Like 86.4°F
Humidity 55%
Pressure 1013mb
Wind 12.66mph from the W
Clear sky 84°F Clear sky
This Afternoon Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 84°F Low: 66°F
Monday Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Mostly Sunny
High: 81°F Low: 58°F
Tuesday Sunny
High: 85°F Low: 63°F
Wednesday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 87°F Low: 65°F
Thursday Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 83°F Low: 64°F


... A front crosses the region tonight bringing with it a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and overnight. Drier weather returns for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures and humidity gradually increasing again through Wednesday. The next chance of rain and thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon, with the heat again returning Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and humid today, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible. 2. Drier and a few degrees cooler Monday.

Plentiful sunshine today and west-southwesterly surface flow has helped push temperatures back into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat indices are approaching the upper 90s out in the Piedmont, and near 100 degrees is certainly possible, though generally staying below Heat Advisory criteria. Scattered cumulus clouds have developed, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge, and some higher level clouds are starting to reach the area from the west. This may impact temperatures in the west if that cloud cover can thicken enough before diurnal heating peaks, but thinking plenty of heating before then for the increase in cloud cover to make much of a cooling difference on high temperatures this afternoon. Overnight, not thinking a lot of relief from the heat, with the clouds lingering until tomorrow morning, as lows only reach the low to mid 60s in the west and and low 70s in the east. Monday will be a few degrees cooler than today, with the passage of the cold front. The biggest difference in temperatures will be felt in the west, where highs could be five to ten degrees cooler tomorrow than today, and with a decent northwesterly breeze and drier airmass, should feel more pleasant. Highs tomorrow in the east will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, as the front exits the area after mid morning.

With ample daytime heating today, high res guidance is showing good surface based instability, especially out in the east. A few thunderstorms have already developed in the Piedmont this early afternoon, tapping into the better moisture and instability. The better forcing is well to the north of the area, closer to the upper low, so coverage would be isolated to scattered at best. As the front nears the mountains this evening and into tonight, storms may develop over the higher terrain with the additional orographic forcing. Forecast soundings show an inverted V profile, and decent DCAPE, so the primary threat continues to be damaging winds.


Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence of lower humidity on Tuesday - Next front and thunderstorms on Wednesday

A drier air mass advances into the Mid Atlantic region as the cold front progresses into the Carolinas. Surface dew points will lower into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon which will result in a lower heat index.

Deeper moisture and a higher probability of thunderstorms will return to the region on Wednesday ahead of the next upper long wave trough and surface cold front. The best dynamics and jet structure remain north of the region, so expecting isolated to scattered coverage of thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Only plan to deviate from NBM temperature guidance is on Monday night when surface dew points lower and surface high pressure directly over the central Appalachians will lead to light and variable or calm winds. Will lower mins Monday night a few degrees below guidance.


Key Messages:

- Heat returns for Friday and Saturday - Moderate confidence for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday

Thursday and Friday will have a limited threat for showers and thunderstorms behind the mid week front. The upper pattern returns to zonal flow with little forcing for any organized probability of precipitation. The North American Ensemble shows 500MB ridging from the Southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic region by Saturday with above normal heights over the Mid Atlantic States. Overall warm temperatures at mid levels of the atmosphere may create a cap on thunderstorm development, but by Saturday there will be at least an isolated threat of thunderstorms, especially near the typically favored higher elevations.

Long range synoptic scale guidance brings the next cold front through the region on Sunday. Will keep probability of precipitation in the chance range until the timing trends with this front become more consistent.